Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Berwick Bay]

I am starting to get indications of a slow down or stall when the storm approaches the western caribbean. The 12Z GFDL drops the forward speed from 17 mph to 8 mph at 82 hrs and keeps it that way for 18 hrs. I just looked at the 18Z NAM and it essentially stalls Felix in the NW caribbean at the end of its run. I'm not sure what is slowing it down in the models - a weakening ridge?

Ron I said several hours ago in my post "My Own Berwick Prediction" that we should look for a serious slow down in forward speed as the storm switched from WNW to NW as it approached the Yucatan Penninsula. And as I said it may even slow more than that as it enters the GOM (possibly going 5mph or even stationary) for a short time. As I said this morning, we should look for a slower timetable and thus a weakening ridge in the GOM which would allow Felix to regain strength and then proceed on a more NNW or even N course. My projected landfall is beteen Victoria Texas and Morgan City La. (Mid Tex to Mid La Coasts). I hope to narrow it down some in a couple of days.

[Stratosphere747]

The point is EWG is that the GFS didn't handle Dean "badly" or "worse" than it is handling Felix. I'll give you that it's not showing a closed low, but he more important aspect is how is it handling the High and it's position.

I still don't think we are going to see any changes on the initial LF area, but we could still see tweaks once it emerges into the BOC.

Rock - Again I think it comes down to the handling of the upper level dynamics. I'm with you about the GFS overall, but the NHC seems rather confident in tandem with the Euro.

I think we are going to have to see one of the two change before they buy into any shift.

[Berwick Bay]

Obviously, I also think that the early long range model runs for Felix taking it into Central America (and the experts who have backed this position) have been very dissappointing. There were early indications that this situation was not at all the same as that of Dean, yet many rushed to back the errant early model runs. When some models began to show the north trend, they were then ridiculed and called "bad models". Well I think we will see a continued trend north and the experts finally beginning to come to their senses and come into line with the newer model runs which I think will take Felix into the Gulf and possibly toward the mid Texas to mid Louisiana coasts.

[miamicanes177]

Obviously, I also think that the early long range model runs for Felix taking it into Central America (and the experts who have backed this position) have been very dissappointing. There were early indications that this situation was not at all the same as that of Dean, yet many rushed to back the errant early model runs. When some models began to show the north trend, they were then ridiculed and called "bad models". Well I think we will see a continued trend north and the experts finally beginning to come to their senses and come into line with the newer model runs which I think will take Felix into the Gulf and possibly toward the mid Texas to mid Louisiana coasts.

I agree 100%. The models have shifted and now the USA needs to be on alert for any additional late breaking changes over the next couple of days. Folks vacationing in Cancun also need to pay attention.

[margaritabeach]

Obviously, I also think that the early long range model runs for Felix taking it into Central America (and the experts who have backed this position) have been very dissappointing. There were early indications that this situation was not at all the same as that of Dean, yet many rushed to back the errant early model runs. When some models began to show the north trend, they were then ridiculed and called "bad models". Well I think we will see a continued trend north and the experts finally beginning to come to their senses and come into line with the newer model runs which I think will take Felix into the Gulf and possibly toward the mid Texas to mid Louisiana coasts.

I appreciate your contribution to this board. However, a month ago it was you ripping the NHC for the conspiracy about test invest, now its you talking about the "experts finally beginning to come to their senses". The NHC and the pro mets who post on this board have years of experience and education that define their expert status. An amatuer guessing correct on one TS earlier this year gives you no credibilty to talk about them coming to their senses on a projected storm path.

[vaffie]

18Z GFS rolling in

6 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

500 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_006l.gif

[vaffie]

18 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif

No difference in track so far. Weakness over Texas slightly more pronounced.


30 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

Same dealio. Storm slightly faster. Weakness over TX still slightly more pronounced than 12Z

[Brent]

It's already out through the timeframe we're interested, same track as before.

[cycloneye]

vaffie the run has been completed.Landfall again near the Belize/Mexico (Yucatan) border.

[canegrl04]

18 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif

No difference in track so far. Weakness over Texas slightly more pronounced.


30 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

Same dealio. Storm slightly faster. Weakness over TX still slightly more pronounced than 12Z

The forecast for most of texas next week calls for cooler and wetter.Seems to me that would be enough of a weakness to draw systems more north

[southerngale]

Obviously, I also think that the early long range model runs for Felix taking it into Central America (and the experts who have backed this position) have been very dissappointing. There were early indications that this situation was not at all the same as that of Dean, yet many rushed to back the errant early model runs. When some models began to show the north trend, they were then ridiculed and called "bad models". Well I think we will see a continued trend north and the experts finally beginning to come to their senses and come into line with the newer model runs which I think will take Felix into the Gulf and possibly toward the mid Texas to mid Louisiana coasts.

I appreciate your contribution to this board. However, a month ago it was you ripping the NHC for the conspiracy about test invest, now its you talking about the "experts finally beginning to come to their senses". The NHC and the pro mets who post on this board have years of experience and education that define their expert status. An amatuer guessing correct on one TS earlier this year gives you no credibilty to talk about them coming to their senses on a projected storm path.

Exactly.

It might be a good time to remind everyone to read the RULES. Pay special attention to #2 and #12.

[vaffie]

It's already out through the timeframe we're interested, same track as before.

It's not the same. It's much slower and further south after it reaches the Yucatan--it doesn't even seem to enter the Bay of Campeche this run.

[cycloneye]

544
WHXX04 KWBC 012324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FELIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.4 64.6 280./15.9
6 12.7 66.2 279./16.2
12 13.3 68.0 287./18.4
18 13.8 70.0 285./20.0
24 14.2 72.2 280./21.7
30 14.3 74.1 275./18.5
36 14.8 76.2 282./20.6
42 14.9 78.1 274./18.1
48 15.0 79.8 275./16.6
54 15.0 81.2 267./13.9
60 15.0 82.6 270./13.5
66 14.9 83.8 268./12.1
72 14.9 85.1 268./11.6
78 15.0 86.2 275./10.7
84 15.3 87.3 285./12.0
90 15.4 88.3 274./ 9.2
96 15.6 88.8 294./ 5.8
102 15.9 89.6 292./ 7.9
108 16.4 90.3 308./ 8.5
114 16.9 91.2 295./10.2
120 17.3 92.5 287./12.1
126 17.3 93.6 274./11.0


18z GFDL.Honduras.

[Thunder44]

18z GFDL on NCEP. It's further south. It takes it inland over Honduras, Guatemala and then Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HouTXmetro]

Is it safe to say that the homeland can relax now that the models are pointing towards Honduras?

[Brent]

Is it safe to say that the homeland can relax now that the models are pointing towards Honduras?

Considering it's still days away, not at all. I do agree it's unlikely but you can't rule it out completely.

[jhamps10]

Is it safe to say that the homeland can relax now that the models are pointing towards Honduras?

HELL NO!!!!

it's still 5 days from landfall in Yucatan, just because models are pointing towards honduras, we still are way,way early in this ball game folks. Still be on guard, just in case.

[jlauderdal]

Is it safe to say that the homeland can relax now that the models are pointing towards Honduras?

for sure, that ridge is locked down just like it was for dean. so much for buying oil futures this week.

[mattpetre]

I think it's very premature to say this ridge is locked down. With Dean there were some variables in place that just didn't happen to come into play, but there is no certainty that they won't have some effect this time. If the Low coming out of Canada ends up being a bit stronger than expected or even if the storm itself happens to just jog a bit more NW than expected everything could change. One of these days this year we will get bitten depending on this ridge to protect the CONUS. I'm not saying it's likely, but I live in Houston and I didn't let my guard down till dean was slamming into the Yucatan and I won't let my guard down on this one either till the thing is less than 200 miles off the coast of Mexico or Belize... We would be foolish to think this forecast is a foregone conclusion already.

[Derek Ortt]

One things though... Honduras needs to start preparing now for a repeat of Fifi and Mitch. Even if this follows the NHC track and moves just north of Honduras... that's what Fifi did