Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[HouTXmetro]

From the 5pm disco...

Felix has resumed a motion of 280/16 after a brief westward jog this
morning. A persistent ridge to the north of the storm should steer
Felix on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple
of days. Thereafter...the forecast hinges on how strong the ridge
remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/hwrf allows
a high over the central Gulf Coast to shift eastward near Florida
and causes a more northwestward track of Felix in about 5 days.
However...the GFS/ECMWF keep the ridge in place and maintain Felix
on a west or west-northwestward motion. In general the guidance
has shifted a little farther north from six hours ago...and the
official forecast is nudged in that direction as well.

pretty much the same as what HGX said here.......this sounds eerily familiar...

What sounds familiar?

[ronjon]

I am starting to get indications of a slow down or stall when the storm approaches the western caribbean. The 12Z GFDL drops the forward speed from 17 mph to 8 mph at 82 hrs and keeps it that way for 18 hrs. I just looked at the 18Z NAM and it essentially stalls Felix in the NW caribbean at the end of its run. I'm not sure what is slowing it down in the models - a weakening ridge?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am starting to get indications of a slow down or stall when the storm approaches the western caribbean. The 12Z GFDL drops the forward speed from 17 mph to 8 mph at 82 hrs and keeps it that way for 18 hrs. I just looked at the 18Z NAM and it essentially stalls Felix in the NW caribbean at the end of its run. I'm not sure what is slowing it down in the models - a weakening ridge?

Most likely a weakening ridge I think.
The slower the storm moves, the greater the threat
to texas and the western gom...

[ROCK]

From the 5pm disco...

Felix has resumed a motion of 280/16 after a brief westward jog this
morning. A persistent ridge to the north of the storm should steer
Felix on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple
of days. Thereafter...the forecast hinges on how strong the ridge
remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/hwrf allows
a high over the central Gulf Coast to shift eastward near Florida
and causes a more northwestward track of Felix in about 5 days.
However...the GFS/ECMWF keep the ridge in place and maintain Felix
on a west or west-northwestward motion. In general the guidance
has shifted a little farther north from six hours ago...and the
official forecast is nudged in that direction as well.

pretty much the same as what HGX said here.......this sounds eerily familiar...

What sounds familiar?

the 05 storm that we cannot speak its name....

[Ptarmigan]

I am starting to get indications of a slow down or stall when the storm approaches the western caribbean. The 12Z GFDL drops the forward speed from 17 mph to 8 mph at 82 hrs and keeps it that way for 18 hrs. I just looked at the 18Z NAM and it essentially stalls Felix in the NW caribbean at the end of its run. I'm not sure what is slowing it down in the models - a weakening ridge?

If it slows down and stalls, does that mean all that upwelling will weaken Felix?

[ROCK]

I am starting to get indications of a slow down or stall when the storm approaches the western caribbean. The 12Z GFDL drops the forward speed from 17 mph to 8 mph at 82 hrs and keeps it that way for 18 hrs. I just looked at the 18Z NAM and it essentially stalls Felix in the NW caribbean at the end of its run. I'm not sure what is slowing it down in the models - a weakening ridge?

If it slows down and stalls, does that mean all that upwelling will weaken Felix?

alot of heat content in the carib so I don't think it will be a problem unless of course it sits there for an extanded period of time...

[BigA]

If it slows down, it wont upwell significantly. Upwelling is really only a problem if the storm utterly stalls or moves very slowly. 5-8 miles per hour (which is pretty much the absolute slowest that Felix could move) is generally slow enough to prevent upwelling that could weaken a hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

If Felix slows down, that could mean heavy rain and flooding problems on top of longer high winds. That could be a problem if Felix does slow down because it may change directions.

[ronjon]

I am starting to get indications of a slow down or stall when the storm approaches the western caribbean. The 12Z GFDL drops the forward speed from 17 mph to 8 mph at 82 hrs and keeps it that way for 18 hrs. I just looked at the 18Z NAM and it essentially stalls Felix in the NW caribbean at the end of its run. I'm not sure what is slowing it down in the models - a weakening ridge?

If it slows down and stalls, does that mean all that upwelling will weaken Felix?

I don't think so in the western caribbean - it has the highest tropical cyclone intensity potential of any region. Remember Mitch - it was a meandering storm but maintained high intensity in this location. I'm afraid if this did happen, then the poor folks in Honduras would suffer due to its proximity with extremely heavy rain and mudslides.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't think so in the western caribbean - it has the highest tropical cyclone intensity potential of any region. Remember Mitch - it was a meandering storm but maintained high intensity in this location. I'm afraid if this did happen, then the poor folks in Honduras would suffer due to its proximity with extremely heavy rain and mudslides.

That actually could be a problem. I remember Mitch well. It was a monsterous Cat.5 hurricane and dumped extremely heavy rain on Central America, up to 95 inches in some areas.

[mattpetre]

Derek,

If the models do get good initializations on this thing, are you thinking it's going to be forecasted more Southward at that point?

[Stratosphere747]

So far the 18z GFS has not really changed its tune.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 102 hours

No big changes from GFS at this 18z run.Low ends up again in the Belize/Mexico (Yucatan) border and slides to the extreme southern BOC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS is really handling Felix badly...even worse than it was with Dean (intensity-wise). Check out what the 18z shows at 96 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif , http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

It is depicting Felix as an open wave or a weak (1012mb) low pressure at that point, when in fact it should be a major hurricane. It also is not showing 98L (or possibly Gabrielle by 96 hrs.) which could have some impact on the overall environment. Until I see a better representation of Felix and 98L on the GFS (meaning at least showing a closed low of 1008mb or stronger), I am not going to give it my full trust.

[southerngale]

The GFS is really handling Felix badly...even worse than it was with Dean. Check out what the 18z shows at 96 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif , http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

It is depicting Felix as an open wave or a weak (1012mb) low pressure at that point, when in fact it should be a major hurricane. It also is not showing 98L (or possibly Gabrielle by 96 hrs.) which could have some impact on the overall environment. Until I see a better representation of Felix and 98L on the GFS (meaning at least showing a closed low of 1008mb or stronger), I am not going to give it my full trust.

It certainly didn't handle Dean's track badly though. It was excellent!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS is really handling Felix badly...even worse than it was with Dean. Check out what the 18z shows at 96 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif , http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

It is depicting Felix as an open wave or a weak (1012mb) low pressure at that point, when in fact it should be a major hurricane. It also is not showing 98L (or possibly Gabrielle by 96 hrs.) which could have some impact on the overall environment. Until I see a better representation of Felix and 98L on the GFS (meaning at least showing a closed low of 1008mb or stronger), I am not going to give it my full trust.

It certainly didn't handle Dean's track badly though. It was excellent!

yes, I mean intensity only.

[Stratosphere747]

The GFS is really handling Felix badly...even worse than it was with Dean. Check out what the 18z shows at 96 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif , http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

It is depicting Felix as an open wave or a weak (1012mb) low pressure at that point, when in fact it should be a major hurricane. It also is not showing 98L (or possibly Gabrielle by 96 hrs.) which could have some impact on the overall environment. Until I see a better representation of Felix and 98L on the GFS (meaning at least showing a closed low of 1008mb or stronger), I am not going to give it my full trust.

It certainly didn't handle Dean's track badly though. It was excellent!

yes, I mean intensity only.

It has been explained over and over that the GFS is not going to represent intensity well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yes, I mean intensity only.

It has been explained over and over that the GFS is not going to represent intensity well.

Stratosphere, I understand that it has been explained "over and over", but give me a break! It is showing a 1012mb low that isn't even closed in 4 days. It surely wasn't that bad with Dean. It at least showed a closed 996-1004mb low for him. That is a big difference, and until I see a closed low of at least 1008mb on the GFS I am not going to fully trust it. Also, the GFS is currently not showing 98L. 98L may have impacts on the upper level environment when/if it develops, so that needs to be considered.

[ROCK]

It has been explained over and over that the GFS is not going to represent intensity well.[/quote]




it has but you must admit Strat that intensity is an issue when it comes to track...especially in the long run......I am not knocking the GFS in fact I follow it some but not as much as before. It did nail Dean but we are in a different pattern right now. There is still some "if's" in this track where in Dean's it was pretty straightforward....

[ROCK]

yes, I mean intensity only.

It has been explained over and over that the GFS is not going to represent intensity well.

Stratosphere, I understand that it has been explained "over and over", but give me a break! It is showing a 1012mb low that isn't even closed in 4 days. It surely wasn't that bad with Dean. It at least showed a closed 996-1004mb low for him. That is a big difference, and until I see a closed low of at least 1008mb on the GFS I am not going to fully trust it. Also, the GFS is currently not showing 98L. 98L may have impacts on the upper level environment when/if it develops, so that needs to be considered.

no break for you EWG......