Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Aric Dunn]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation


im sure everyone has seen these

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the Houston NWS AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE
DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS KEEPING
A LID ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...BELIEVE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS AN
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH/LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX DRIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY
AND WESTWARD MONDAY. THE RESULT IS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX. WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS WELL...POPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF CHANCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES MONDAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TX
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. UNTIL THEN...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS TX
TUESDAY WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WHETHER THAT WILL
HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NHC BRINGS FELIX TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE IF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STEER
FELIX WESTWARD AS IT DID WITH DEAN. WITH FELIX MOVING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY...MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FOR NOW.

[Aric Dunn]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

From the Houston NWS AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE
DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS KEEPING
A LID ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...BELIEVE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS AN
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH/LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX DRIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY
AND WESTWARD MONDAY. THE RESULT IS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX. WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS WELL...POPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF CHANCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES MONDAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TX
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. UNTIL THEN...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS TX
TUESDAY WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WHETHER THAT WILL
HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NHC BRINGS FELIX TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE IF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STEER
FELIX WESTWARD AS IT DID WITH DEAN. WITH FELIX MOVING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY...MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FOR NOW.

That is exactly the weakness I mentioned earlier developing near texas on Tuesday,
and I am concerned it may affect Felix.

[Innotech]

Well I was kinda surprised to wake up and see this.
BUt I think this storm wont even remotely threaten the US mainland. Its even further South than Dean and moving westward fast. At best Id say it would make it to Belize.

[Scorpion]

I think its incredible that yesterday this was still an invest and not a TD until 5 and now we could possibly have a hurricane very soon

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is 273ºK=0ºC?

Been a while since I've used Kelvin in every day life.

Are we getting to almost -80ºC cloud tops?

[Aric Dunn]

Is 273ºK=0ºC?

Been a while since I've used Kelvin in every day life.

Are we getting to almost -80ºC cloud tops?

yes 0C is 273K

[Aric Dunn]

01/1745 UTC 12.4N 64.5W T3.5/3.5 FELIX

Dvorak still a TS

need 4.0 according to Dvorak

[Brent]

Still a TS at 5... 110 kt before Belize landfall(could be a hair north), and a Cat 1 in the BOC.

[Evil Jeremy]

...Felix continues moving westward...could become a hurricane
tonight...


a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the islands of
Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.


Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Felix was
located near latitude 12.7 north...longitude 65.3 west or about 310
miles...500 km east of Aruba and about 395 miles...640 km...south
of San Juan Puerto Rico.


Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track...Felix will be passing near or to the north of the
islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao late tonight or early Sunday
morning.


Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix could become a hurricane later tonight or Sunday.


Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on board the
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km...primarily to
the north of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.


Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the offshore
islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of
Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...12.7 N...65.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.
Minimum central pressure...999 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.


$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like more of a NW bend at the end.

[Buck]

Still at 70mph and 999mb at 5:00pm.

[Brent]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.

FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.

[Scorpion]

Its too bad recon isnt in there or this would've been a hurricane at 5... does anyone know what the record is for TD formation to hurricane status?

[Aric Dunn]

I mentioned this earlier..


"IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH."

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like an eye is trying to form in Felix. Looks like Felix could be a hurricane soon. It strengthened rather quickly, moreso than Dean.

[RL3AO]

I know it is still unlikely at this point, but we could have 2 Cat 5's hit the same country within 3 weeks of each other.

[Evil Jeremy]

Its too bad recon isnt in there or this would've been a hurricane at 5... does anyone know what the record is for TD formation to hurricane status?

dont know the record, but Recon took off about an hour ago so we will soon know for sure. Hurricane at 8 at least!

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, the correct name is La Pesca...

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)