Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

Getting stronger:

[cpdaman]

i hope felix gets grinded to death by south america

have any storms in this area been demolished by the south american coastline (kinda like hispanola and cuba help protect florida to some degree

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, we will still have to see if the ridge holds down the road. It's obvious it will hold until it gets into the gulf, but I'm still thinking that it may find a weakness that the models aren't seeing this far out...

It doesn't matter because Gabrielle which looks like it will form behind it SHOULD be our first USA threat in a long time....but that's a long way down the road..We got to get through this one first...

[Nimbus]

That big plains ridge is still forecast to keep things rolling west underneath it. You can start to see an ULL trying to split off the eastern seaboard trough ahead of Felix. No reason to beleive they won't roll west together the way they did with Dean at this point.

For Berwick Bay's scenario to pan out the plains ridge would move east a little and cause the seaboard trough to amplify drawing it south. I will feel more comfortable when the trough split becomes more obvious and high pressure starts building in over the gulf.

[TampaFl]

Felix coming into veiw of the ABC Islands radar:


http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppicolor.html

[ConvergenceZone]

That big plains ridge is still forecast to keep things rolling west underneath it. You can start to see an ULL trying to split off the eastern seaboard trough ahead of Felix. No reason to beleive they won't roll west together the way they did with Dean at this point.

For Berwick Bay's scenario to pan out the plains ridge would move east a little and cause the seaboard trough to amplify drawing it south. I will feel more comfortable when the trough split becomes more obvious and high pressure starts building in over the gulf.

I'm not saying there won't be a ridge above it, just saying that the chance of Dean, Felix AND Gabrielle not finding a weakness in the ridge is pretty slim...Plus future Gabrielle is higher in latitude and that makes a BIG difference, but that's being talked about on the other thread, back to Felix...

[storms in NC]

i hope felix gets grinded to death by south america

have any storms in this area been demolished by the south american coastline (kinda like hispanola and cuba help protect florida to some degree

Fla is not even in the picture on this. Felix is going dew west at this time. A high will be over the gulf. And by the looks of him I would say he is buliding biger. Derek I think has a good handle on this one.

[skysummit]

i hope felix gets grinded to death by south america

have any storms in this area been demolished by the south american coastline (kinda like hispanola and cuba help protect florida to some degree

Fla is not even in the picture on this. Felix is going dew west at this time. A high will be over the gulf. And by the looks of him I would say he is buliding biger. Derek I think has a good handle on this one.

Read his post....he never says Florida is "in the picture".

[jasons2k]

I'll be interested to see what the next run of the NOGAPS does. It did a good job with Dean and this model has been shifting right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

UK Met aiming for extreme Northeast Tamaulipas, but has a weak to moderate system throughout. Canadian still a Southern runner. In my amateur and unoffical opinion, the first hurricane to affect the US won't be Felix. 98L/possible future TD #7/Gabrielle might follow a Hugo-esque path, and might be a concern Florida to Carolinas, but Felix is a Southern runner.

It gained 7 minutes, barely a tenth of a degree, between the last two VDM, so it is South of guidance, if anything.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of, a new VDM just hit the wires...


URNT12 KNHC 011723
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 01/17:07:10Z
B. 12 deg 27 min N
064 deg 14 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 142 deg 026 nm
F. 181 deg 052 kt
G. 142 deg 026 nm
H. EXTRAP 999 mb
I. 22 C/ 400 m
J. 24 C/ 405 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0406A FELIX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 16:04:30 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 70KTS @ 17:14:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, by that recon, a bit of a WNW wobble.

Getting stronger as well.

[Buck]

We might have a hurricane by nightfall.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Most likely threat to central america,
but there is a possible threat to Texas
if a trough digs down at the time
Felix reemerges into the BOC.

[Aric Dunn]

Speaking of, a new VDM just hit the wires...


URNT12 KNHC 011723
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 01/17:07:10Z
B. 12 deg 27 min N
064 deg 14 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 142 deg 026 nm
F. 181 deg 052 kt
G. 142 deg 026 nm
H. EXTRAP 999 mb
I. 22 C/ 400 m
J. 24 C/ 405 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0406A FELIX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 16:04:30 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 70KTS @ 17:14:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

anyone even notice the

MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 70KTS @ 17:14:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.[/quote]

thats about 72 mph at the surface with a 90% reduction

[Buck]

I noticed... that's why I think we aren't far from having a hurricane. Maybe even by 5pm.

[Aric Dunn]

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

[Brent]

TD to hurricane in <24 hours?

[Derek Ortt]

Aric... you do not use a 90 percent reduction automatically from all levels.

I highly recommend most here read the Franklin et al. 2003 paper that addresses this topic

[Aric Dunn]

Aric... you do not use a 90 percent reduction automatically from all levels.

I highly recommend most here read the Franklin et al. 2003 paper that addresses this topic

umm yeah .. i was going off of there last VDM .. and they were flying near the same level .. and i figured out what they were using then and so i used 90% this time as well .. and they did increase the winds to 70mph on the 2pm advisory