Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[miamicanes177]

18Z GFDL 17.1N 88.4W
00Z GFDL 19.1N 87.2W

The northward trend continues...stay tuned

[skysummit]

Yes, and with Dean, the upper air pattern was pretty much set for the entire forecast. It's a little different here. The upper air pattern is set for the next 3 days or so, but changes will be occurring afterwards.....changes that did not occur with Dean.

[ROCK]

never thought the GFDL would jump like that...the lastest UKMET is out to lunch again, losing the system.....I am wondering when the next GFS runs will it jump also.

[southerngale]

UKMET loses it? Ok, because this certainly caught my attention.
The more northern ones are the outliers though.

[HouTXmetro]

ok, the UKMET and GFDL are again north of the better performing models for Dean. Wonder what models will be more consistant and right this time around.

[Scorpion]

The Euro takes it into Belize

[HouTXmetro]

is the NOGAPS and Euro the same thing?

[southerngale]

is the NOGAPS and Euro the same thing?

No.

[Stratosphere747]

Until the GFS and the Euro start to trend N, then I'm not sold on what the other models are trying to do.

[vaffie]

Models continue their northerly march. The 6Z BAMs have come out, with the BAMD and BAMM moving north substantially and the BAMS moving slightly south so that the D is one degree further north, now clipping southern Cozumel and the BAMS and BAMM between Cozumel and the northern tip of the Yucatan.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062007) 20070901 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 0600 070901 1800 070902 0600 070902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 61.2W 12.8N 64.2W 13.4N 67.3W 14.5N 70.6W
BAMD 12.2N 61.2W 12.8N 64.3W 13.6N 67.5W 14.4N 70.8W
BAMM 12.2N 61.2W 12.9N 64.2W 13.7N 67.4W 14.7N 70.6W
LBAR 12.2N 61.2W 12.7N 64.4W 13.5N 68.2W 14.3N 71.9W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 0600 070904 0600 070905 0600 070906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 73.7W 17.1N 79.6W 18.7N 84.5W 20.8N 89.0W
BAMD 15.1N 73.9W 16.3N 79.4W 17.9N 83.6W 20.0N 87.1W
BAMM 15.7N 73.8W 17.5N 79.5W 19.4N 84.0W 21.6N 87.7W
LBAR 15.0N 75.5W 16.2N 81.9W 16.4N 86.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 70KTS 84KTS 93KTS 97KTS
DSHP 70KTS 84KTS 93KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 61.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 57.9W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 55.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

102 hours

The 6z GFS does no change a bit as it still has almost the same position as the 18z and 00z runs.

[tailgater]

is the NOGAPS and Euro the same thing?

Notice when it was Initialized 8am friday, the latest run has it farther north also.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

Well, another morning and more model shifting. The NHC 5 day track is now on the south side of all of the guidance with the exception of the GFS, which it is aligned with now. The 00Z GFDL, the NHC's high value model, has shifted considerably north along with the HWRF. The UKMET has also shifted considerablely north and has a rather ominous location curving N-NW north of the Yucatan peninsula. It is extremely early to call yet, but if I lived on the western or central Gulf coast I'd closely follow this storm over the next several days.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[wxman57]

Until the GFS and the Euro start to trend N, then I'm not sold on what the other models are trying to do.

The Euro was right on with Dean, and it's been right on with Felix for the past 3-4 days, taking it almost due west into Nicaragua. The same models that kept trying to turn Dean NW are doing the same thing with Felix. I don't trust them for a second. I'd go with the European - Nicaragua for landfall, not Belize.

[wxman57]

Well, another morning and more model shifting. The NHC 5 day track is now on the south side of all of the guidance with the exception of the GFS, which it is aligned with now. The 00Z GFDL, the NHC's high value model, has shifted considerably north along with the HWRF. The UKMET has also shifted considerablely north and has a rather ominous location curving N-NW north of the Yucatan peninsula. It is extremely early to call yet, but if I lived on the western or central Gulf coast I'd closely follow this storm over the next several days.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

That would be the same GFDL that forecast Dean to hit southeast Louisiana, right? Enough said on that model with this pattern, which is almost identical to the pattern with Dean.

[Derek Ortt]

again, the models indicating a northward track are the ones carrying Felix as an open wave. This is likely to become a major hurricane, chuck those models down the toilet...

Unfortunately, the likely track means likely death and destruction

[Derek Ortt]

latest GFDL has this as an actual TC and not surprisingly has the track further south of the previous

[Thunder44]

6z GFDL shifted southward. Now like the GFS, ECMWF, a track toward northern coast of Hounduras/Nicuragua and then Belize:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Portastorm]

latest GFDL has this as an actual TC and not surprisingly has the track further south of the previous

Maybe -- just maybe -- some folks here will learn from you and Wxman57 on this and realize why those right-bending tracks cannot be taken too serious.

[ronjon]

I'm not sure this atmospheric pattern is the same as Dean - it may turn out that way but as of now I think there is still some uncertainty in the later forecast track. To start with - there is more than the GFDL that shifted north on it's 00Z run which was the case with Dean. Only the GFDL showed a northward turn with Dean - it was a true outlier. With Felix, models that have trended north are all of the BAMs including the BAMD. There is the 00Z UKMET and NOGAPs which move the storm off the north coast or into the NE tip of the Yucutan. The GFS and Euro are both in the southern camp. The HWRF sides with the northern ones. The FSU MM5 is the farthest east with a location off the NW coast of Cuba in 5 days. It is true that most of the globals maintain a weak system but I did notice that both the UKMET and NOGAPs show the storm with closed isobars as a weak tropical cyclone (unlike yesterday when it was an open wave). The HWRF again struggles with intensity and leaves the system as an open wave in the western caribbean. I would also note that the GFS shows a weak storm throughout its track.

Ok, what to me is different? Well, if you side with the GFS and Euro, then a strong ridge will dominate the GOM and protect the US from any northward track. The Euro is strongest with the ridge while the GFS does show some subtle erosion on the SW and W end with time - hence the GFS is in belize and Euro south of that. On the GFS 500 mb chart, there is a trough forecast to dip over Texas in 5 days that originates in the northern plains. This to me is the wild card here - is it weak and mainly confined to the northern states or is it strong enough to weaken the western extension of the ridge. I think we'll know with more certainty in a couple of days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_120s.gif