Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[ROCK]

Nam 00z rolling out. At +42 much more pronounced NW movement


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

interesting to see the NAM showing this....but again the NAM in the tropics is right up there with the CLP5 model.......

[Stratosphere747]

The WRF is all over the place.... reminds me of old AE98 model ran some years ago.....or maybe the LBAR to some extent.....

I miss the "clueless" old days....

I'd ignore posts and take it personal if anyone put down my beloved AE98!

[jaxfladude]

as of now...is GOM in more of a danger of a possible major hurricane?
Still too early since TD#6 is so weak...?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Never fear, the mother of all 500 mb ridges will protect the Gulf.



Probably.



The new WRF is worse, IMHO, than the ETA it replaced.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z GFS has a closed isobar at zero hour.

[cycloneye]

The 00z GFS run is just starting to roll.Lets see where it tracks the low.In the 18z run it went to the Belize/Mexico (Yucatan) border and the second landfall was near Veracruz.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS 500 mb winds would steer deep system towards Jamaica, IMHO

[cycloneye]

24 hours

[cycloneye]

36 hours

[cycloneye]

54 hours

Low is SE of Jamaica but not close.

[canetracker]

00z run has it moving faster than the 18z run.

[oyster_reef]

looks like gfs is keeping the system very week

[cycloneye]

66 hours

[Ed Mahmoud]

54 hours

Low is SE of Jamaica but not close.

And the ridge is growing out Westward with it.




The zero hour orientation of that ridge was aimed at the Yucatan Channel, but it looks like the GFS keeps the Gulf safe.

[canegrl04]

looks like gfs is keeping the system very week

If they are not judging its strength well,then their forecast track could be alittle off base.I know GFS did well with Dean,but they are not the god of all models

[oyster_reef]

66 hours

open wave?

[cycloneye]

78 hours

Close to the NE coast of Nicaragua.

[canetracker]

66 hours

open wave?

Regardless of it's pitiful handling of intensity, presently looking at the 500mb levels, it does look like the GOM should stay safe with high pressure gaurding it.

[cycloneye]

90 hours

Same spot as the 18z run,brushing the NE Nicaraguan coast.

[cycloneye]

102 hours

East of Belize.