Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[miamicanes177]

Wow, looking at the satellite loop, I see totally NO reason AT ALL why this should not be felix right now. in fact t numbers of 2.5, most times we will see an upgrade at 1.5 or even 2.0, There is NO excuse in my book right now.

Especially as it is threatening land at the moment. The NHC is out of line for not upgrading this.

[skysummit]

Maybe they just want to issue a special statement in another hour or two....you know, just to keep things interesting.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, looks like they are only expecting a cat 1 out of this. I"m a bit shocked on their strength forecast, but they must know something we don't....

[Beam]

No big deal, I'm sure it'll be Felix soon enough.

[Coredesat]

Especially as it is threatening land at the moment. The NHC is out of line for not upgrading this.

There is no convective banding. There is no data supporting TS winds at the moment, and surface obs and recon trump Dvorak in this area, and the NHC does not upgrade solely due to proximity to land - this invites complacency and is bad forecasting. You absolutely cannot tell the NHC how to do its job; if they have data that supports a TS classification, they will upgrade. If they don't, they won't. You (or I) have no authority to tell the NHC whether it is in line or not.

Besides, there are watches/warnings out, and if there's data then they can upgrade at an intermediate or special advisory.

[miamicanes177]

There is no convective banding. There is no data supporting TS winds at the moment, and surface obs and recon trump Dvorak in this area. You absolutely cannot tell the NHC how to do its job; if they have data that supports a TS classification, they will upgrade. If they don't, they won't. You (or I) have no authority to tell the NHC whether it is in line or not.

Besides, there are watches/warnings out, and if there's data then they can upgrade at an intermediate or special advisory.

T2.5/2.5...plus 33mph sustained winds at Barbados that is well away from the center containing the strongest winds. Also, recon found 42kts at flight level which is very near TS strength, and that was many hours ago. Sat appearance has improved dramatically since and we have enough evidence to support a TS Felix.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still waiting for the discussion to see Beven's reasoning...

[RL3AO]

T2.5/2.5...plus 33mph sustained winds at Barbados that is well away from the center containing the strongest winds. Also, recon found 42kts at flight level which is very near TS strength, and that was many hours ago. Sat appearance has improved dramatically since and we have enough evidence to support a TS Felix.

What are the other two T#s?

[Category 5]

Wow, looking at the satellite loop, I see totally NO reason AT ALL why this should not be felix right now. in fact t numbers of 2.5, most times we will see an upgrade at 1.5 or even 2.0, There is NO excuse in my book right now.

Especially as it is threatening land at the moment. The NHC is out of line for not upgrading this.

Mind backing that up with some scientific evidence?

[Brent]

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE
SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ELONGATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT
EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS DATA ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA AND
SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

Does it really make a difference? 35 vs. 40 mph? No.

[Coredesat]

T2.5/2.5...plus 33mph sustained winds at Barbados that is well away from the center containing the strongest winds. Also, recon found 42kts at flight level which is very near TS strength, and that was many hours ago. Sat appearance has improved dramatically since and we have enough evidence to support a TS Felix.

That was far to the E of the ctr fix, read the discussion. And a 33mph sustained wind well away from the center and not under any convection is not going to support and upgrade either.

Didn't I say Dvorak is trumped in this area?

[Derek Ortt]

for the record, I also called this TD 6 not TS 6... so Dr. Beven is not the only met who didn't feel an upgrade was warranted at this time

[senorpepr]

Felix will be a September storm unless the post-analysis confirms differently than the operational analysis.

Felix was going to be a September storm regardless. Even if it was upgraded at 8pm (01 Sept/00Z), it would be a September storm.

The meteorology community uses the zulu clock. It's our friend.

[miamicanes177]

Didn't I say Dvorak is trumped in this area?

Unless you've managed get your own private pilot to fly you up into this thing tonight to get data, I'm not sure how the 2.5 estimate could be overtaken. Recon is not flying in this right now and it looks 10x better since they were up there many hours ago.

[Derek Ortt]

it will be an August storm (unless protocol has changed) as the time when the system becomes a TD is when it is assigned a particular month

[RL3AO]

Everybody STOP! And read why we have a tropical depression, instead of a storm instead of just saying the NHC are cowards

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE
SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ELONGATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT
EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS DATA ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA AND
SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION
IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[ConvergenceZone]

The good news is that this isn't forecast to be a major like Dean was...in fact, not even remotely close to being a major, based on the latest forecast. Hopefully it will miss any real populated areas like Dean did as well....

[Derek Ortt]

the NHC forecast does not have this becoming a major, but they leave the possibility open.

NHC does tend to be a little more conservative on the initial forecasts than I do. That said, there is likely greater than a 70 percent chance of this beocming a major

[skysummit]

The good news is that this isn't forecast to be a major like Dean was...in fact, not even remotely close to being a major, based on the latest forecast. Hopefully it will miss any real populated areas like Dean did as well....

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE IN DEEP-LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FOR
THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ONCE
THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE EXPERIMENTAL LGEM
MODEL BOTH FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...AS NOTED ABOVE THE HWRF DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...WHILE
THE GFDL WAITS UNTIL IT IS WEST OF 75W TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE CYCLONE COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
STATISTICAL MODELS ARE CORRECT.

[Coredesat]

Didn't I say Dvorak is trumped in this area?

Unless you've managed get your own private pilot to fly you up into this thing tonight to get data, I'm not sure how the 2.5 estimate could be overtaken. Recon is not flying in this right now and it looks 10x better since they were up there many hours ago.

Dvorak is trumped. Just look at Dean: based on Dvorak estimates it would not have been a Cat 5. The highest T associated with it was T6.5/6.5.