Significant Heavy Rain threat...

[ALhurricane]

Although I am not biting on the GFS solution of a full blown tropical system, I am concerned about a heavy rain event for the northern Gulf Coast.

The most likely scenario is for a surface trough to develop in the west central Gulf. With the subtropical ridge building across Florida and an approaching mid level trough, it will allow for copious moisture to stream northward. Precipitable water values may exceed 2.25".

Details will come into better focus in the next 24-48 hours, but it looks like S Louisiana, S Mississippi, S Alabama, and the FL panhandle may receive excessive rainfall. I know here in Mobile we have received 13 inches for the month. Some places could have some flooding concerns if this pans out.

We shall see

ALhurricane

[Guest]

I agree Alhurricane. I don't think we will see any tropical system - maybe just a wave - but this system has the potential to bring significant amounts of rain. With the westerlies in place - its all going to go over the Eastern GOM states.

Developing situtation ....

[cycloneye]

Ticka Houston is in a drought right? If so you may welcome some of this rain but I think that it may not reach that far west but watch the situation.

[Guest]

We are like 9 inches behind in our rainfall Luis - so we would welcome any rain. I think its a wait and see situation. A frontal boundary is suppose to move through today and push out into the GOM.

Maybe one of the experts can explain to me how and why we are getting these late season fronts moving through...seems out of the ordinary.

Patricia

[Rainband]

Ticka..we were in the same boat a few years back..A severe drought for 3 years..See what recently happened with all the rain here in WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA..Mother nature will take care of TEXAS in due time!!!!

[JetMaxx]

Ticka, I don't really see anything too unusual occurring in the weather right now...

As is the norm, cold fronts tend to slow, stall, and become ill defined this time of year on the southern end. When they do push through the area, it's many times more of a wind shift line that a true frontal passage (lower humidity but not much cooling).

On a sidenote...I didn't realize southeast Texas was that far below normal in rainfall. I know it's been extremely wet across the deep south and southeast U.S. (14.12" here in June alone; 23.91" since May 1st).

May God Bless,
Perry

[Steve]

Significant heavy rain threat indeed. The 12Z ECMWF moves a surface low toward SE Texas (South Padre/Rio Grande Valley area) in 96 hours and still has it south of Corpus Christi at 168 hours. It's sniffing out a rain-maker (IMHO TD/TS) which should soak South Texas in the Monday-Thursday period next week. I like the model's idea on this one, though I'm not ready to make a call on potential rainfall yet until at least Saturday. Gut feeling is there could be some localized 10"+ amounts if the ECMWF verifies.

Steve

[Guest]

Too far south - we need it to move more northeast and affect us in SE texas...

[Steve]

Here are the model runs from 120 and 168:





You may get some rain from it eventually.

Steve

[southerngale]

Local met here mentioned the possibility of development.

In the tropics, an area of disturbed weather is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system will likely move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday with some slow development possible over the weekend.

[Colin]

Al I can say is, get ready Gulf Coast... and it'll be very interesting to see what it does over the next few days!