Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Coredesat]

Dr. Jeff Masters has a completely different view from many, including the best computers models in the world. Dr. Masters suggests:

"If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."

The steering regime would seem to indicate that this is indeed possible, although it would have to remain weak to do so:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[skysummit]

Looks very low, and agree it looks like a TS right now. So, can we all now finally agree it won't hit the mainland U.S., and just discuss what it WILL do?

Uh...what? Heck no.

[Sanibel]

I'd agree major is likely from obvious 2007 climatology. (Hot Caribbean SST's)

[cycloneye]

A link is needed to see the complete statement from Masters,and see why his reasoning.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Calling for a major out of an invest is a slippery slope and is as irresponsible as saying "this is nothing, don't worry".

Lets get a depression before we start calling it a major

Heat content is explosive. It's pretty likely to become at least category 3.
Now to say it's nothing is Irresponsible, that goes against the facts.
There is no comparison. Saying major is perfectly predictable, though
uncertain to an extent.

[Coredesat]

Looks very low, and agree it looks like a TS right now. So, can we all now finally agree it won't hit the mainland U.S., and just discuss what it WILL do?

We can't discuss what it will or will not do as that isn't forecasting.

[Derek Ortt]

my jaw just about dropped when I read that forecast by Dr Masters. I cannot understand his line of reasoning at all

[skysummit]

:uarrow: A link is needed to see the complete statement from Masters,and see why his reasoning.

He really doesn't say....

Master's Blog

[miamicanes177]

:uarrow: A link is needed to see the complete statement from Masters,and see why his reasoning.

He gives no reasoning as that was the last sentence his posted on 94L. His blog address is http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=771&tstamp=200708

[RL3AO]

When was are last true Pacific crossover?

[hurricanetrack]

Folks, the writing is on the wall, even though the models don't show what will likely be Felix or Gabrielle or who ever too well (if at all) it is clear what IS there. A nice ridge stretching from Africa to the Baja. If this makes it past 15 north ever, I will be shocked. We are still apparently locked in to this low latitude track regime and like I said before, if these late bloomers continue, let's say we get three more like this, and the month of Sept. wears on, one of them will come north. I just hate to see what might be in store for people in Central America from this thing. Loss of life there from tropical cyclones is usually epic. For that reason, let it come on north!

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, i wake up and i see this, it looks most definatly a TD even a TS im suprised we havent seen the advisory came out yet.. Oh and this is a little bit south isnt it, it looks if it stays on a west heading it will scrape South Americia.

[TheEuropean]

When was are last true Pacific crossover?

I think it was Atlantic hurricane Cesar (July 1996) that became Pacific hurricane Douglas.

[Sanibel]

Master's microwave puts the center closer to 12N. (Big difference)

[dwg71]

Calling for a major out of an invest is a slippery slope and is as irresponsible as saying "this is nothing, don't worry".

Lets get a depression before we start calling it a major

Heat content is explosive. It's pretty likely to become at least category 3.
Now to say it's nothing is Irresponsible, that goes against the facts.
There is no comparison. Saying major is perfectly predictable, though
uncertain to an extent.

how about 2 invests and on the verge of 3 that went poof and did not develop in the past 24-36 hours as "facts" that this might not be something either. They are equally as likely to happen at this point. Models aren't buying into it too much yet. Let's wait and see before we put the cart before the horse...

[storms in NC]

He must have started the week-end early LOL

[hurricanetrack]

I like that "Master's microwave". Gooooooood!

[cycloneye]

Master's microwave puts the center closer to 12N. (Big difference)

Link

[RL3AO]

[Sanibel]

The spiral center is closer to 12N in that image.