Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[wxman57]

Here's a new satellite I made with McICAS. The center appears to be near or just south of 11N, though it's not easy to locate yet. Maybe 10.9N/57.1W?

[img][/img]

[wxman57]

By the way, what happened to the auto-thumbnail feature on this forum? It used to convert large images to thumbnails automatically.

[skysummit]

Wxman57....seeing that the other globals are all weakening the ridge, are you saying you're basing your forecast track solely off the Euro? What about Derek? Euro too?

I would say that you're not looking at the right level. Look at the mid-levels for steering, not the surface chart. Check the ECMWF map I posted above and compare it to the GFS and NOGAPS below. All predict a moderate ridge building over the Gulf by early next week. Easterly flow south of the ridge points to Nicaragua for a likely landfall.

Ok...I was just quickly looking at some of the other charts posted above. I wasn't looking at the actual runs myself.

[LarryWx]

Not only was the ECMWF absolutely stellar with Dean in the 3-5 day period once it had formed into a storm, this model also was clearly the best performer for the 3-5 day period by a pretty significant margin in 2006 according to p. 25's table 4 within the following:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2006.pdf

This was discussed within the following S2K thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97166

From that table #4, here are the average 120 hour errors (nautical miles) for 2006 Atlantic storms (based on 22 cases...pretty good sample size):

ECMWF: 163
GFDL: 234
GFS: 250
NOGAPS: 250
UKMET: 296
CMC: 463

So, if I'm forced to go with only one model, the ECMWF would be the one. However, IF there is a sig. error in the progged ECMWF, I'd guess it would be too strong ridging near the SE U.S. based on its recent warm bias and somewhat too strong progged upper ridging in the SE U.S. on a number of occasions this summer. It didn't really miss the pattern...it was just a bit too intense with the ridging. Therefore, IF the progged track is going to miss, my guess would be it would verify a little too far south but not so far south that it would likely ever be a U.S. threat. Nevertheless, keep in mind that Dean pretty much didn't end up going north of the ECMWF preferred track.

[srainhoutx]

I will say that I like the model trends. I can leave town for the weekend with a little piece of mind knowing that the GOM is looking good. Very persistant pattern this year. Thanks Wxman57 for your input. We're taking the coach and the dogs to the lake and not worry about this system. Everyone have a good Labor Day Weekend.

[GeneratorPower]

I bet the NHC initiates advisories at 11am. It looks too good on satellite and they need warnings for the islands.

[Sanibel]

I put the center around the 11 latitude (very low tracker).

Already a TS. Should get good wind readings from Grenada. System is entering very high SST's and should boost.

Belize warning.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Low shear, high heat content in caribbean.

I expect a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

So this season will not be as quiet as I originally thought.
Late Bloomer.

[Extremecane]

Track like hurricane Joan possible:



Winds were 145 and became the worst storm to hit Nicargua killing 148 people

[skysummit]

Low shear, high heat content in caribbean.

I expect a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

So this season will not be as quiet as I originally thought.
Late Bloomer.

LATE BLOOMER? We're still before the peak of the season. How do you figure?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Low shear, high heat content in caribbean.

I expect a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

So this season will not be as quiet as I originally thought.
Late Bloomer.

LATE BLOOMER? We're still before the peak of the season. How do you figure?

Season overall is a late bloomer the peak should be in late september and be
very active in October. 94L is on time but the seasons peak will be late. Following
94L the peak comes later this month...or so I predict.

[Sanibel]

[skysummit]

Low shear, high heat content in caribbean.

I expect a major hurricane in the Caribbean.

So this season will not be as quiet as I originally thought.
Late Bloomer.

LATE BLOOMER? We're still before the peak of the season. How do you figure?

Season overall is a late bloomer the peak should be in late september and be
very active in October. 94L is on time but the seasons peak will be late. Following
94L the peak comes later this month...or so I predict.

Ok, gotcha. I agree I thought you were talking specifically about 94.

[miamicanes177]

Dr. Jeff Masters has a completely different view from many, including the best computers models in the world. Dr. Masters suggests:

"If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Unless South America stops this...it could be very bad for central
america. South America I mean can shoot dry air into a system...but if it doesn't
then this will likely be major there is almost nothing to stop it.
And for right now I see a major in the cards. Bigtime. Wow
Mother Nature seems to have been provoked by my forecast...

[storms in NC]

Hey, where is that trough that was so prevalent early this season? Anyone seen it lately? No? Better hope it stays out of the picture as sooner or later, one of these low trackers will come north. They can't all go to Mexico- or can they?

Looks like you will be saving on gas money with all these stright west tracks.

[bvigal]

Looks very low, and agree it looks like a TS right now. So, can we all now finally agree it won't hit the mainland U.S., and just discuss what it WILL do?

[dwg71]

Calling for a major out of an invest is a slippery slope and is as irresponsible as saying "this is nothing, don't worry".

Lets get a depression before we start calling it a major

[SWFLA_CANE]

Dr. Jeff Masters has a completely different view from many, including the best computers models in the world. Dr. Masters suggests:

"If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."

It's not out of the question that I hit the lotto either...but it is highly unlikely.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks very low, and agree it looks like a TS right now. So, can we all now finally agree it won't hit the mainland U.S., and just discuss what it WILL do?

Smash central america. hard. Looking scary.