Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Ixolib]

It better lift up soon or it will have trouble with land in SA.

There is no way this will survive on its current pace..

Uhh.....Ivan?

[EyELeSs1]

i guess the center is really near the deepest convection on the western side if it is located @ 11.3N 57.1W per 1200 UTC model data

[Ixolib]

I'll add....Charley?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not compare this with those storms. More like a system that hardly moves north of south America...Also quickscat shows a very sharp wave at the surface, yes the convection makes it look like a LLC has formed, but the lower clouds I can see does not look like a LLC has formed. At least not a big one or a broad one. Not yet a depression based on this. Yeah it could form into one later today as it moves westward.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

94L at 8AM EDT:

11.3N 57.1W
Sustained Wind: 30 knots
Pressure: 1008mb
Level of tropical cyclone development: Low

The NHC's ATCF database updated the 2AM EDT winds from 25 knots to 30 knots and the level of cyclone development from tropical wave to low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing appears to be fairly stacked with the lower level system being under the MLC. Is it closed it is possible, we will find out when recon gets into the system,.

[Lowpressure]

Looks pretty good on sat, but as we all know- looks do not tell it all. I say recon finds a closed llc, and possibly a minimal TS by the time they arrive.

[wxman57]

I'm afraid this one is going to develop today. There's a ship south of 94L reporting SW winds at 20 kts now. I'm already working up a track taking it into Nicaragua on Tuesday. ECMWF did excellently with Dean, and I think it has the best handle on the building ridge north of 94L. Take a look at the ECMWF surface and 500mb pattern for next Tuesday evening as 94L reaches the western Caribbean. Don't look for any turn like Ivan or Charley. More likely a track south of Dean's. Even Aruba might get a piece of this one.

[miamicanes177]

I believe the NHC will have their TWO forecast proven to be 100% correct over the last few days and 94L will become a tropical depression. In fact, I would not be shocked if 94L became a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in the caribbean.

[Fego]

Ojo Ojo
000
WONT41 KNHC 311310
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
910 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY
TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Derek Ortt]

that seems to imply no upgrade at 11 a.m.

[boca]

How often does Nicaragua get hit from a tropical storm or hurricane.Does anyone else feel this steering current that is in place unusual.The high just doesn't want to weaken according to wxman57.

[skysummit]

12z runs...

[Derek Ortt]

I also see no turn even to the WNW until the system clears Aruba

Not good news at all as TCs ar typically very deadly in SA and Nicaragua and Honduras

[Fego]

that seems to imply no upgrade at 11 a.m.

Derek, are you talking about the special tropical disturbance statement?

[Derek Ortt]

Nicaragua was hit by Beta just 2 years ago

[Nimbus]

FSU MM5 might just be a little "Nappy Headed" splitting the trough off Miami.. I've had three cups of coffee to wake up, and I still don't feel comfortable with a west track all the way to Nicaragua.

[WmE]

Nicaragua was hit by Beta just 2 years ago

Causing no deaths.

[Derek Ortt]

Nicaragua really did a good job preparing for Beta, and it also spared Honduras

[Chacor]

Nicaragua was hit by Beta just 2 years ago

Causing no deaths.

None reported, that is.

Derek, I agree the STDS wording implies that the NHC wants to wait for recon data before declaring it a TD instead of going straight to TD at 11.