Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[BigA]

Dvorak:
31/0945 UTC 11.2N 56.0W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

Isn't 1.5 ususally high enough for classification as a tropical depression?

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak:
31/0945 UTC 11.2N 56.0W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

Isn't 1.5 ususally high enough for classification as a tropical depression?

Yes, for a 25-knot depression. The NHC was just waiting for visible before making a call.

[HURAKAN]

Bursting.

[Thunder44]

Dvorak:
31/0945 UTC 11.2N 56.0W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

Isn't 1.5 ususally high enough for classification as a tropical depression?

Yes, for a 25-knot depression. The NHC was just waiting for visible before making a call.

I also believe they were probably waiting for the QS pass this morning. That may prevent them from upgrade this system at 11am. There wasn't exactly a closed circulation.

[Geordie.NCL]

But, one has to wonder, if these southern, late bloomers continue.

Why do you call it a "late bloomer"? This is the middle of the hurricane season. Doesn't climatology says this is one of the areas that these things will form at this time of year?

What do you mean by "late bloomer"?

[BigA]

But, one has to wonder, if these southern, late bloomers continue.

Why do you call it a "late bloomer"? This is the middle of the hurricane season. Doesn't climatology says this is one of the areas that these things will form at this time of year?

What do you mean by "late bloomer"?

I think it means systems that develop relatively late in their "lives," such as closer to the Lesser Antilles rather than near the Cape Verde Islands.

[HURAKAN]

A wider look.

[storms in NC]

It better lift up soon or it will have trouble with land in SA.

[boca]

It looks like it will skim along the South American coastline at least the envelop of the storm not the core.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

It better lift up soon or it will have trouble with land in SA.

There is no way this will survive on its current pace..

[HURAKAN]

South_American_hurricane_tracks:

[boca]

According to this steering flow it should start gaining latitude just west of the islands.Their is a trough in the Bahamas.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[caneman]

It better lift up soon or it will have trouble with land in SA.

It is already North albeit just barely off/North of the coast of SA

[ronjon]

According to this steering flow it should start gaining latitude just west of the islands.Their is a trough in the Bahamas.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Thanks Boca for pointing that out - nobody reads earlier threads. You can see the motion toward the NW near the Leewards by looking at the cloud movement toward PR and Hispanola in the VIS SAT.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

[EyELeSs1]

i think the questions is where will they find the center?

to the NE of the deepest convection?? (12.1N 55.4W)

or in the western side just to the E of deepest convection?(11.2N 56.3W)

or somewhere in between... in and around 11.4N 55.8W?

[Blown Away]

The FSU brings 94L to S Cuba towards Fl straights E GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

[storms in NC]

That is going to be one of those sharp turns on a dime.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070831 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070831 1200 070901 0000 070901 1200 070902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 57.1W 12.3N 60.0W 13.4N 63.0W 14.5N 65.8W
BAMD 11.3N 57.1W 11.9N 60.5W 12.6N 64.0W 13.4N 67.6W
BAMM 11.3N 57.1W 12.0N 60.6W 12.8N 64.1W 13.8N 67.5W
LBAR 11.3N 57.1W 11.7N 60.5W 12.2N 64.4W 12.9N 68.3W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070902 1200 070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 69.0W 16.6N 75.8W 17.4N 82.0W 18.6N 86.8W
BAMD 14.3N 71.4W 15.3N 78.7W 15.7N 84.6W 16.3N 88.2W
BAMM 14.8N 71.2W 16.0N 78.5W 16.8N 84.8W 17.9N 89.2W
LBAR 13.6N 72.3W 15.2N 79.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 76KTS 86KTS 92KTS
DSHP 62KTS 76KTS 70KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 57.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 51.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[skysummit]

It better lift up soon or it will have trouble with land in SA.

There is no way this will survive on its current pace..

Uhh.....Ivan?

[ronjon]

It better lift up soon or it will have trouble with land in SA.

There is no way this will survive on its current pace..

Uhh.....Ivan?

I'll add....Charley?