Extended outlook concerning SW Caribbean system

[Stormsfury]

Ok ... after reviewing the mods tonight have left me with only more questions ... they are diverging on solutions and outcomes somewhat ...

Let's start with the GFS ... right now, it's wanting to develop the low, but it's origins look baroclinic in nature and riding up along a frontal trough ...
Looking at model diagnostics, the GFS looks to be suffering terribly from convective feedbacks and grid-scale errors in regards to QPF ...
UKMET --- shows nothing but a very amplified ridge/trough/ridge couplet and no surface reflection in the GOM ... still looks like a moist flow setup but further westward ...
NOGAPS --- wants to develop a closed low starting over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving it northward, with the best moisture over the Florida Panhandle, and Southern GA ...
EURO --- frontal trough and a smaller area of higher RH's at 850mb, concentrated over the middle Gulf states ... in fact, on Day 3 --- Central Florida has a low pocket of RH's at 34%!... Also, the EURO wants to hold a ridge stronger in the region near Florida, Also of note, 100% RH's over Coastal Southeastern TX from a SE flow...
Later in the period the EURO has one low developing (likely baroclinic/frontal in nature on Day 6 over/east of the Carolinas with a second low -- over Southern TX, near Brownsville ... and high RH's values there ...) and that low hangs there on Day 7 with a very strong 995mb low over Minnesota which would likely produce severe weather over in that region.

Ok...I'm literally tearing the rest of my hair out on this one ... and I'm not exactly sure which way to go with the solutions being offered ...

The ECMWF and UKMET are both stronger in holding the East Coast Ridge and are further west in regards to where the low(s), moisture axes end up (the UKMET's case, no low, whatsoever) ... The GFS and NOGAPS are a bit weaker with the Atlantic Ridge and in fact, the NOGAPS looks to be the weakest allowing the system to come more northward (two reasonings, the NOGAPS develops a closed low and much more influenced by the mid-level synoptic flow) and the GFS somewhere in the middle ...
What also looks a little suspicious to me about the GFS (what's new?) are the convective feedbacks, squall lines - particularly Florida - that it wants to develop ---

Right now, I'm going with a low spinning up somewhere along a frontal trough, probably over the Central/Western GOM - energy combined with a digging trough plus the energy now currently in the NW Caribbean ... I don't think the moisture field will be as concentrated (in regards to the GFS placement over the Eastern Gulf/Florida) but a little more widely sparsed out ... possibly from MS eastward into the Carolinas ... there's too many variables and too many diverging solutions and frankly to be honest, I'm at a loss, so this is my best prognostic discussion I can offer at this time ...

Comments are defintely welcome ...

SF

[ColdFront77]

The cold front coming currently over the Nations Midsection should play a role in the NW Caribbean's disturbance movement.

[cycloneye]

In other words SF the models agree that rain will go to the gulf coast and north of there but they differ in intensity so there is a spaggetti in the models that we dont know what to think.

[Stormsfury]

The cold front coming currently over the Nations Midsection should play a role in the NW Caribbean's disturbance movement.

Exactly ... but when and where is the question at hand. Also I failed to mention about the ULL currently SW of the system also has my NNW to NW thinking initially and is possibly what a couple of models have picked up on in the short term ...

One other question regards the ECMWF (EURO's) appearance of a second low - appearing to originate in the BOC and moving into the extreme Southern area of TX for Day 6 and Day 7...

Just a quick edit: The GFS and NOGAPS are suggesting tropical development ... The EC/UKMET/Canadian do not show this development .... and in fact are further west with the moisture axis ... the EC and the UKMET to some extent are building the Bermuda High westward ... Irregardless, the system could possibly be a significant rainmaker to areas already inflicted by heavy rains earlier this month if the GFS/NOGAPS are onto something. However, if the system does move further west (in response to the Bermuda High ridging westward, beneficial moisture may actually head towards the Western Gulf...

[Lindaloo]

I am going to take a shot at this one. Looks to me like there is shear in the western GOM. The cold front is approaching the central states and is going to knock the high pressure to the east. Therefore, the low(?) in the carribean will be be steered towards the Florida Panhandle. Thus bringing lots of rain. With the shear in place in the GOM, there is no chance of development. There.

Go easy guys... I am just a peon. lol.

[Anonymous]

Since development remains unlikely, a more westerly track is possible. The models have been slowly trending westward. This may be more of a central Gulf rain event. The models will have a better handle on the low tomorrow.

[Steve]

Hey TWW,

I agree that it will be a rain event. I'm not sure where yet. What do you think about the 00z run of the UK Met? At the surface, it continues the tug of war across Mexico for the next couple of days which seems plausible enough. But it eventually focuses around South Texas (seen clearly on the 500mb & > loops). It jumps from there to the Shreveport area (seeing the 2nd front?). In a way, it jives with what you're saying about the models trending more westerly.

I'm not sold either way though. I need another day or two to watch the moisture. Tues-Wed's gut was maybe Alabama and NW FL for the rain event (2" to say localized 6+"). If we do get anything in the NC Gulf, I'll get some pictures up. Hopefully that goes for anyone wherever you are. Let's see more pictures this year on the forum.

Peace,

Steve

[ColdFront77]

I am looking forward to see what the frontal system moving toward the southeastern United States will do with this tropical moisture over the northwestern Caribbean.

Over the years there have been a variety of different results after the initial and continual updates in forecast models. Sometimes they do pretty well.

As has been stated, we don't have a constant with the various models, thus making things more interesting.

[Colin]

Thanks for the disucssions everyone... very interesting. I don't know really what situation to go with... it'll be very interesting to watch over the next couple of days!