Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

['CaneFreak]

Boy, you know what? I look in here and all I see are a bunch of crybabies. The upper air pattern is most definitely changing. I am at work right now so I cant post the PW maps but trust me when I tell you, "The upper air pattern is changing"!!!! The trough over the northern central Atlantic is weakening the Azores ridge that has been so strong all year and constantly pumping dry air down from the north. I think we are in for a busy busy second half of the season. I believe that the experts WERE correct in their early season forecast. We have not seen a late season in a while and I think its time that it happened. We'll see whos correct but this wave is looking good. The atmosphere is slowly moistening up, just give it time. Looking good now though. Wave has gained a lot of convection in the last few hours. We'll see. Just my 2 cents.

[storms in NC]

I'll eat crow if i have to...This one isn't going to die. It will be Felix the cat soon. Several pro mets see circulation.

It may have circulation. But that don't mean it will build into Felix. 95L& 96L had circulation and look at them now. I don't think we will have a player till it passes the 65-70 and then iffy

[storms in NC]

Boy, you know what? I look in here and all I see are a bunch of crybabies. The upper air pattern is most definitely changing. I am at work right now so I cant post the PW maps but trust me when I tell you, "The upper air pattern is changing"!!!! The trough over the northern central Atlantic is weakening the Azores ridge that has been so strong all year and constantly pumping dry air down from the north. I think we are in for a busy busy second half of the season. I believe that the experts WERE correct in their early season forecast. We have not seen a late season in a while and I think its time that it happened. We'll see whos correct but this wave is looking good. The atmosphere is slowly moistening up, just give it time. Looking good now though. Wave has gained a lot of convection in the last few hours. We'll see. Just my 2 cents.

Thanks I was asking about that. And no one said any thing. So I was taking it that it wasn't going to change any time soon.

['CaneFreak]

I'll eat crow if i have to...This one isn't going to die. It will be Felix the cat soon. Several pro mets see circulation.

It may have circulation. But that don't mean it will build into Felix. 95L& 96L had circulation and look at them now. I don't think we will have a player till it passes the 65-70 and then iffy

What evidence do you have to back up that thought? 95 and 96 had to fight shear and an upcoming front; last time I checked, I dont see anything that would hinder this from becoming something up the road.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see a closed surface circulation with this wave. The wave axis does seem a little better defiend than yesterday though

The inflow has improved, but it is also spitting out more outflow boundaries today than yesterday, so the net convergence may not be enough

Would watch this in the EC though where the dry air should be less of a factor

[Wx_Warrior]

That's why a few of us haven't posted much and won't do so because of that...I'll keep reading tho.

[Blown Away]

Wow, another straight Dean track. Wasn't Dean's track pretty rare and to have a very similar track a few weeks later seems very unusual. I'll play the odds/climatology there will be a different outcome with 94L/ Possible Felix.

[oyster_reef]

Wow, another straight Dean track. Wasn't Dean's track pretty rare and to have a very similar track a few weeks later seems very unusual. I'll play the odds/climatology there will be a different outcome with 94L/ Possible Felix.

GOM'er?

[skysummit]

I'd also find it odd for another due west track the entire time. We're going to start getting troughs or weak fronts every few days or so soon. Heck...we just had one stall out just north of Louisiana a few days ago. We have another weak front coming down this weekend, and then another in 5 - 7 days or so. Something's gonna have to give on that potent ridge.

[storms in NC]

I'll eat crow if i have to...This one isn't going to die. It will be Felix the cat soon. Several pro mets see circulation.

It may have circulation. But that don't mean it will build into Felix. 95L& 96L had circulation and look at them now. I don't think we will have a player till it passes the 65-70 and then iffy

What evidence do you have to back up that thought? 95 and 96 had to fight shear and an upcoming front; last time I checked, I dont see anything that would hinder this from becoming something up the road.

I didn't say it had a closed surface circulation. Just trying to make a point. If it did have one doesn't mean it will become any thing.IE 95L and 96L did but got tore apart in no time

[Wx_Warrior]

Ridge won't be here in SETX next week, I know that...No telling what happens with 94L beyond this.

[storms in NC]

Ridge won't be here in SETX next week, I know that...No telling what happens with 94L beyond this.

They have been there for most of the summer. I don't see it leaveing any time soon. Not till maybe mid oct.

[skysummit]

Ridge won't be here in SETX next week, I know that...No telling what happens with 94L beyond this.

They have been there for most of the summer. I don't see it leaveing any time soon. Not till maybe mid oct.

Why not? The ridge broke last week, and it'll break again this weekend. I don't see it having a problem breaking again in 7 days.

[southerngale]

Ridge won't be here in SETX next week, I know that...No telling what happens with 94L beyond this.

They have been there for most of the summer. I don't see it leaveing any time soon. Not till maybe mid oct.

It hasn't been over SE TX most of the summer.

We've also had a ton of rain here this summer.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system is becoming better organized with a much sharper wave focus. Also maybe at the mid levels a MLC appears to be starting to develop and form clouds near the core of the system. This thing may slowly become better organized over the next 12-24 hours.

[Wx_Warrior]

Just telling you what I was told by a relative that is a pro met...I was informed that a H wouldn't be around us next week here in SETX. What that has to with 94L then, I have no clue....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Long Range Models show High building west as the system moves west north of the system keeping it on a similar track as Dean. We'll see how it all pans out.

[Blown Away]

Convection popping around 11-12N/51-52W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

This thing is on its way. Just needs more convection.

[Blown Away]

Clip on 94L from Accuweather:
The third area of concern in the Atlantic is a tropical wave well east of the Lesser Antilles. This system was becoming better organized Thursday afternoon and was creating banded structure to thunderstorms in the area. Through the weekend, an area of high pressure will steer the wave toward the large islands of the Caribbean, which will further hinder the development of the system.

Do they mean PR & Hispanola? The Lesser Antilles shouldn't hinder development to much?