Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[cycloneye]

bvigal,the best person to answer if the plane will depart from ST Croix tommorow is pojo ,who is part of the squadron crew.However,I can tell you that when Dean was east of the Antilles,the first mission departed from ST Croix,so I assume they will fly from there,but again pojo may have the official word .

[bvigal]

Thanks, Luis! I'll send a PM. Or, if you see pojo online, please say we were asking.

[EyELeSs1]

I believe that it is fairly obvious now that there is a small/weak maybe "newer" LLC just to the NW of the deep convection. If this invest was to develop this is where it would develop not out near 53-54W

center looks to be near 11.7N 52.1W right now...leaving it a little exposed

[tolakram]

Convection looks to be re-firing. I'll be more positive about this system if it can organize even a little convection as we approach d-min.

edit:

source for that image is: http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

edit again:

Sorry, I just noticed what looks like new outflow boundaries emerging from NE side of that convection blob.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[MWatkins]

Notice the low clouds are bending/arcing in from the south and west. It's trying to get organized...

I suppose I can see how it is battling the dry air to the north but it is still tapping a lot of mositure from the south...

MW

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks its trying to get its act together, maybe it could try to stay together through the Min.. it could have a chance to get a hold of itself through the MAX.

[ronjon]

System looks more organized today with some outer banding while maintaining some heavy convection. The convection appears to be on the east side of the circulation. I look for gradual organization as the dry air still will keep it undercheck until it mixes out in the next 24-48 hrs. I agree with the NHC as it moves toward the Leeward Islands that we may have our next tropical depression.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[skysummit]

That outflow boundary that show out to the northwest earlier is curving inwards toward the newly developing LLC. It's almost as if that outflow boundary is aiding in the development of a band.

[Sanibel]

Starting to incorporate a curved band from the SE quadrant. Slow development.

[storms in NC]

If this is the New center then it is moving more to the WNW than to the West. But it maybe the eys too.. I will zoom on it too see better

[Sanibel]

The outflow boundaries are dealing with the dry air to the north. But as they collapse the thunderstorms on that side the southern moist inflow boosts the system on the opposite side, so the result is slow development kept in check. You can see the storm is winning. Just a matter of time before it convects nearer to the warm SST's just west. Looks like a go.

[oyster_reef]

possible track looks VERY similar to Dean...

[storms in NC]

I Think it will be a Dean track too. But from what I read in the Wilm decusstion long range there could be a weakness that it could feel and go more north.

000
FXUS62 KILM 301729
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1228 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

MON-WED LOOK DRY WITH A POORLY DEFINED HIGH STILL TO
THE NORTH AND VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

For what its worth, Canadian shows a Dean track.


GFS runs it into Hispaniola and kills it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL is similar to Dean track, with a Cat 3 in 126 hours SE of Cancun.

[cycloneye]

GFDL is similar to Dean track, with a Cat 3 in 126 hours SE of Cancun.

Please,a link to the source.

[cycloneye]

30/1745 UTC 11.8N 52.3W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[miamicanes177]

GFDL is similar to Dean track, with a Cat 3 in 126 hours SE of Cancun.

Please,a link to the source.

[miamicanes177]

possible track looks VERY similar to Dean...

I put the odds of 94L following the exact same track as Dean and slamming in to the Yucatan south of Cozumel at less than 5%.

[skysummit]

possible track looks VERY similar to Dean...

I put the odds of 94L following the exact same track as Dean and slamming in to the Yucatan south of Cozumel at less than 5%.

What are your thoughts then? The GFDL for Dean was pretty good pretty far out with the exception of a few northern runs.