Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[tolakram]

What happened to the 805 TWD?

I was wondering the same thing. It's not available via weather underground either (which sometimes gets the feeds even if the NHC website is having issues).

[vegastar]

What happened to the 805 TWD?

I guess they have a typo in their 805TWD.

They say:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

and then:

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

It is impossible to have 1015UTC imagery at 205AM discussion...

So the part concerning 94L is:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 17W MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 45W-53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N46W TO 13N54W.

$$
WALLACE

[miamicanes177]

I don't understand why you must continue to bring up your "weekends off". It's part of your profession if you have to work weekends, and it's been a pretty dull season so far with the exception of Dean.

Heck, I work just about every single weekend, and mostly every day and night when I'm on call, but that's because I chose the profession I'm in, and most of it is surrounded by the weather. If a storm threatens the U.S. Gulf Coast, my overtime shoots through the roof, but again, that's my job.

On the other hand, like I mentioned above, it looks like it's about to shoot off another outflow boundary to the northwest. We'll see.

It's wise to only trust information that comes from the best, the NHC. The NHC takes their job very seriously and their forecasts are not biased in any way, shape, or form. They live and breathe the tropics and have several forecasters that work specific time shifts.

[Sanibel]

I think what we saw was a brief, transient eddy moving away from a lone thunderstorm. There isn't and hasn't been any CDO, just spotty thunderstorms. That little spin is now gone and the thunderstorm is weakening.

Totally disagree. Looks like an obvious spinning center trying to get organized in dry air. The only issue is whether it will get eaten up by the surrounding synoptic because of its size. Almost a certain cyclone at this point if it survives into the Caribbean. The surface spiral is clearly visible (although weak).

[HURAKAN]

[windstorm99]

Jeff masters on 94L....

Not much has changed from yesterday with 94L, the tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave has slowed down its forward speed to 10-15 mph, so should be entering the islands on Saturday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain. QuikSCAT data from last night showed that the storm became less organized yesterday, with a weak, elongated circulation. Top winds were 20 knots (23 mph). Visible satellite loops show a limited amount of disorganized thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is still a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and may decrease some by Saturday, allowing a better chance for development. It looks like 94L will stay well south of the shearing winds of the upper-level low spinning north of Puerto Rico.

The presence of a large, dusty area of dry air surrounding its north side continues to cause major problems for 94L. Once again today, this dry air is being sucked into 94L's thunderstorms. This dry air is creating strong downdrafts visible as arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds along the ocean surface. The presence of these arc-shaped surface clouds is usually a good sign that a storm is struggling with dry air and will not intensify significantly for at least the next 12 hours.

Water vapor satellite loops of the region show that 94L has not significantly moistened its environment. As the storm continues further west, it may be able to gradually do so, allowing it more of a chance to get organized. None of the reliable computer models forecast that 94L will develop into a tropical depression.

[Blown Away]

So is that a LLC

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 30 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-098

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 13.0N 58.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 01/0930Z
D. 13.5N 62.0W
E. 01/1030Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 12 HRLY FIXES
STARTING AT 02/0600Z.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

No tasking on 96L.

[Blown Away]

Nice little circulation with a band to the NW. That ball of convection has been persistent and appears to be moving a little WNW in the last few frames. Just an observation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[bvigal]

Good morning, Luis! Well, that's good news for us, if they expect it at 13.5N 62W the following day, that's well south of here. So, tracking almost due west, hmm it must be BAMD track they feel is most accurate. Do you know, is the plane still in St. Croix?

[wxman57]

Just snapped a McIDAS shot of 94L. I've identified a broad low pressure area by low cloud motions. Convection is on the eastern side of the broad low. As someone just noted, there are several outflow boundaries now shooting off to the northwest of the lone area of thunderstorms, an indication that convection is collapsing once again (probably due to dry air). I still think it's moving a good bit faster than 10-12 kts, as I place the "center" well west of the convection (red X).

By the way, I like working only 6 days a week, 10-16 hours a day, if I an get by with that during this time of year. Yes, it's my job to work nonstop in the event of tropical development, and I did work 11 days without any time off during Dean just so the rest of my team could get a break. In recent years I've worked 40-50 days straight (12+ hr shifts) with only 1 or 2 days off in August/September. Doesn't mean I don't like an occasional day off.

[skysummit]

Depression Possible.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE BECOMING OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISORGANIZED NON-TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS
DIMINISHED...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

WWWW

[DESTRUCTION5]

5 Areas of interest...NO names...Go figure..

[windstorm99]

[miamicanes177]

I thought it looked better today and the TWO confirms my suspicions. Would not be surprised to see a tropical depression this weekend as the wind shear relaxes.

[windstorm99]

Here's another shot with the invest location....

[MWatkins]

I agree Mike, but it's also interesting to see how one of the pro mets here think it looks worse today than yesterday. He must've not cleared his cache.

Or, perhaps this pro met, whoever he is, isn't wishing for something to track so he could have at least part of the upcoming "holiday" weekend off?

Take a look at WV imagery. The upper trof now north of 94L continues to dig southwest across the disturbance. On the latest satellite imagery, I can see a little low-level swirl that must popped out northwest of the one thunderstorm, an indication of WNW-NW shear. I don't think it'll develop over the next 2-3 days, but once it reaches the western Caribbean around next Monday/Tuesday it may flare up.

Not "wishing" for anything here...just pointing out that the wave looks a little better organized than yesterday, noting the TAFB position fix and the SSMIS imagery.

And...they have lined up 2 flights between tomorrow and Saturday....

I am sure those crews would prefer to be "home" over the weekend...but it's really up to the atmosphere...too bad the peak of the season falls near labor day...

MW

[chadtm80]

I agree Mike, but it's also interesting to see how one of the pro mets here think it looks worse today than yesterday. He must've not cleared his cache.

Or, perhaps this pro met, whoever he is, isn't wishing for something to track so he could have at least part of the upcoming "holiday" weekend off?

Take a look at WV imagery. The upper trof now north of 94L continues to dig southwest across the disturbance. On the latest satellite imagery, I can see a little low-level swirl that must popped out northwest of the one thunderstorm, an indication of WNW-NW shear. I don't think it'll develop over the next 2-3 days, but once it reaches the western Caribbean around next Monday/Tuesday it may flare up.

Not "wishing" for anything here...just pointing out that the wave looks a little better organized than yesterday, noting the TAFB position fix and the SSMIS imagery.

And...they have lined up 2 flights between tomorrow and Saturday....

I am sure those crews would prefer to be "home" over the weekend...but it's really up to the atmosphere...too bad the peak of the season falls near labor day...

MW

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Blown Away]

Ok, am I way off? If you look at the last few frames a W-WNW movement.

[bvigal]

Maybe the recon schedule based upon GFDL (see below). Or is it because they are in St. Croix already. ARE they in St. Croix? I guess I could call a friend over there and ask. I thought someone here would know.