Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Fego]

TWD is kind of late... I wonder why.. ...

[cycloneye]

30/1145 UTC 11.1N 51.3W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

It may look pretty on imagery,but inside is a mess.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, I think looks count in this case. It appears to be slowly organizing, which should translate into more substance by tomorrow IMO.

[otowntiger]

You guys still losing sleep over 94L? Sorry to hear that. Hopefully NHC will call it at the 10:30 TWO.

Yeah, Its amazing how it seems we've been watching a patch of clouds for nearly a week now. . A whole lot of interest is poured into this one little thing, that really can't even be called a 'system'. I'm as guilty as anyone, but I freely admit that I need a life!

[Fego]

Dry air still a problem. Am I wrong?

[Meso]

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 301256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC THU AUG 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200 070901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 51.3W 12.4N 54.5W 13.9N 57.9W 15.5N 60.8W
BAMD 11.3N 51.3W 11.7N 53.8W 12.2N 56.6W 13.0N 59.4W
BAMM 11.3N 51.3W 11.8N 54.4W 12.4N 57.6W 13.2N 60.9W
LBAR 11.3N 51.3W 11.6N 53.8W 12.1N 57.0W 12.8N 60.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 1200 070903 1200 070904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 64.0W 18.2N 70.6W 19.0N 77.1W 19.5N 82.6W
BAMD 13.6N 62.4W 14.8N 68.7W 15.7N 75.1W 16.2N 80.4W
BAMM 14.1N 64.3W 15.6N 71.6W 16.4N 79.1W 17.1N 85.2W
LBAR 13.5N 63.9W 14.8N 70.8W 15.5N 76.7W 13.9N 77.3W
SHIP 49KTS 64KTS 78KTS 86KTS
DSHP 49KTS 64KTS 78KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 51.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 48.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 46.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[windstorm99]

Invests rule in tropics but in all honesty none of systems pose a significant threat to the united states. Get out and enjoy your holiday weekend.Adrian

[MWatkins]

Hmmm...looking a little better organized this morning. If there is a center up under that little ball-o-convection...things could get interesting today.

An SSMIS pass at 11:15Z (in the 85H) suggests at least the mid-level structure is a little better organized this morning:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... W.92pc.jpg

The Dvorak estimate from TAFB is up to T-1.0 as well.

SST's pick up to 28C right where 94L is passing now...and will warm from here on out.

Will be interesting to watch to see if they task recon tomorrow.

MW

[skysummit]

I agree Mike, but it's also interesting to see how one of the pro mets here think it looks worse today than yesterday. He must've not cleared his cache.

[windstorm99]

Fun to watch 4 invests across the atlantic without any real significant threat to the U.S.

[boca]

If 94L were to develop into a named system is the same set up in place that steered Dean into Mexico?

[Nimbus]

The LLC is half exposed on the west side but the convection is lifting right off the center now. If that little bit of shear out of the west eases they will need to send recon.

[skysummit]

I don't know if it's about to shoot another outflow boundary out the northwest side or not, but I guess we'll see in another image or two.

[wxman57]

I agree Mike, but it's also interesting to see how one of the pro mets here think it looks worse today than yesterday. He must've not cleared his cache.

Or, perhaps this pro met, whoever he is, isn't wishing for something to track so he could have at least part of the upcoming "holiday" weekend off?

Take a look at WV imagery. The upper trof now north of 94L continues to dig southwest across the disturbance. On the latest satellite imagery, I can see a little low-level swirl that must popped out northwest of the one thunderstorm, an indication of WNW-NW shear. I don't think it'll develop over the next 2-3 days, but once it reaches the western Caribbean around next Monday/Tuesday it may flare up.

[wxman57]

If 94L were to develop into a named system is the same set up in place that steered Dean into Mexico?

Most likely. ECMWF forecasts a building ridge over the Bahamas west across the Gulf in advance of 94L. That points to a Dean-like track.

[skysummit]

I don't understand why you must continue to bring up your "weekends off". It's part of your profession if you have to work weekends, and it's been a pretty dull season so far with the exception of Dean.

Heck, I work just about every single weekend, and mostly every day and night when I'm on call, but that's because I chose the profession I'm in, and most of it is surrounded by the weather. If a storm threatens the U.S. Gulf Coast, my overtime shoots through the roof, but again, that's my job.

On the other hand, like I mentioned above, it looks like it's about to shoot off another outflow boundary to the northwest. We'll see.

[Sanibel]

The tiny CDO explains why it was hard to find the center the last few days. Looks like Charley a little in the same formation area. If it doesn't wipe out it should become a Caribbean cyclone headed who knows where.

[HURAKAN]

What happened to the 805 TWD?

[wxman57]

The tiny CDO explains why it was hard to find the center the last few days. Looks like Charley a little in the same formation area. If it doesn't wipe out it should become a Caribbean cyclone headed who knows where.

I think what we saw was a brief, transient eddy moving away from a lone thunderstorm. There isn't and hasn't been any CDO, just spotty thunderstorms. That little spin is now gone and the thunderstorm is weakening.