Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Zardoz]

There's definitely a circulation there. I would expect it to continue spinning and form further west. Should start blooming convection as the SST's force it.

That enormous wave (Is it really as big as it seems to be?) behind it appears to be overtaking it rapidly. How will the two systems interact? Will they break each oher up?

GOES East Rainbow

[vegastar]

530 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[skysummit]

06z Model Runs...

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[bvigal]

I woke up very early, before dawn, and sat down to see what our weather here would be like next 24hrs. Satellite shows convection firing up from 16N 60W southeast to 94L. There are two areas of spin that I see, one at 50W (94L?) and one at 53.5W 13N. So, I pulled up the marine graphic to see where we're talking about for possible formation. It's 'busy'! And, looks like a low could get going anywhere in the general area from the wave to the Windwards/Lesser Antilles.

[HURAKAN]

WOW!!!



LOOKING better this morning.

[skysummit]

That's crazy that they've highlight such a large area....and NORTH of where 94L currently is? I haven't seen any signs yet of it moving further north. Maybe that's about to change.

[tailgater]

Looking a little better this morning
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

94L looks good enough to get us excited this morning and then let us down this afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

94L looks good enough to get us excited this morning and then let us down this afternoon.

That's the rhythm of the tropics!!!

[AtlanticWind]

There's definitely a circulation there. I would expect it to continue spinning and form further west. Should start blooming convection as the SST's force it.

That enormous wave (Is it really as big as it seems to be?) behind it appears to be overtaking it rapidly. How will the two systems interact? Will they break each oher up?

GOES East Rainbow

There is plenty of distance between the two waves , they should have no efffect on each other.

[bvigal]

From local NWS/SJU this morning:
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

[Nimbus]

Convection should be on the increase as 94L gets over the warmer SST's. The slower forward motion is keeping the circulation from getting under the favorable part of the ridge. The ridge may slow down or 94L will speed up but it will need to get under that ridge to develop and that could take a while.

If it were not for an ULL blowing through the big wave behind it one might think 94L would be overtaken and absorbed.

[skysummit]

Something I noticed over the past few hours. Could this really be the beginning, or just another way for 94L to play tricks....

[Thunder44]

On visible loop, the low-level center still looks little broad and elongated this morning, but a bit better organized with the convection today. I wouldn't be suprised to this develop before it hits the islands.

[cycloneye]

And is moving more slowly,10-15 mph,that will allow it to develop before it reaches the islands.

[wxman57]

Even with 4 invests, development chances look rather low for this time of year through the weekend. I might just get to take this weekend off! 94L looks worse than yesterday, if that's possible. 95L is being ripped apart by shear, 96L might have a shot at developing into a TD as it zips off to the NE this weekend. 97L will be inland by this evening.

[HURAKAN]

Sorry, but 94L definitely looks better today than yesterday,

[wxman57]

:uarrow: And is moving more slowly,10-15 mph,that will allow it to develop before it reaches the islands.

Don't make that assumption (that it's moving more slowly). The NHC made a mistake initializing its speed yesterday (or Tuesday?) as being 10 or 11 kts, correcting it on the next model runs when they relocated the "center". It appears to still be moving at close to 17 kts to me, as I put the "center" out ahead of the convection. It's really difficult to gauge speed with such a poorly-defined disturbance.