Tropical Depression HENRIETTE: Discussions & Advisories
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Tropical Depression HENRIETTE: Discussions & Advisories
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
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Re: Invest 95E (East Pacific)
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952007) 20070829 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070829 1800 070830 0600 070830 1800 070831 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 96.0W 12.9N 97.4W 13.6N 98.7W 14.4N 100.3W
BAMD 12.0N 96.0W 12.3N 98.3W 12.8N 100.6W 13.3N 102.8W
BAMM 12.0N 96.0W 12.6N 98.0W 13.1N 100.0W 13.6N 102.0W
LBAR 12.0N 96.0W 12.4N 98.2W 13.1N 100.8W 13.8N 103.6W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070831 1800 070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 101.9W 17.5N 104.8W 19.7N 108.3W 21.5N 112.1W
BAMD 13.9N 104.9W 15.2N 108.4W 16.8N 111.6W 18.1N 113.9W
BAMM 14.2N 104.0W 15.6N 106.9W 17.5N 109.4W 19.6N 111.8W
LBAR 14.7N 106.6W 17.1N 111.9W 19.3N 116.2W 21.0N 118.7W
SHIP 69KTS 83KTS 86KTS 87KTS
DSHP 69KTS 83KTS 86KTS 87KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 96.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 94.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 92.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070829 1800 070830 0600 070830 1800 070831 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 96.0W 12.9N 97.4W 13.6N 98.7W 14.4N 100.3W
BAMD 12.0N 96.0W 12.3N 98.3W 12.8N 100.6W 13.3N 102.8W
BAMM 12.0N 96.0W 12.6N 98.0W 13.1N 100.0W 13.6N 102.0W
LBAR 12.0N 96.0W 12.4N 98.2W 13.1N 100.8W 13.8N 103.6W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070831 1800 070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 101.9W 17.5N 104.8W 19.7N 108.3W 21.5N 112.1W
BAMD 13.9N 104.9W 15.2N 108.4W 16.8N 111.6W 18.1N 113.9W
BAMM 14.2N 104.0W 15.6N 106.9W 17.5N 109.4W 19.6N 111.8W
LBAR 14.7N 106.6W 17.1N 111.9W 19.3N 116.2W 21.0N 118.7W
SHIP 69KTS 83KTS 86KTS 87KTS
DSHP 69KTS 83KTS 86KTS 87KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 96.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 94.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 92.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Re: Invest 95E,EPAC,Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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Re: Invest 95E in EPAC,Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
285
WHXX01 KMIA 300111
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0111 UTC THU AUG 30 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952007) 20070830 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 0000 070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 96.6W 12.9N 98.2W 13.7N 99.8W 14.5N 101.4W
BAMD 12.0N 96.6W 12.5N 98.9W 13.0N 101.1W 13.6N 103.3W
BAMM 12.0N 96.6W 12.9N 98.4W 13.7N 100.3W 14.4N 102.2W
LBAR 12.0N 96.6W 12.4N 98.7W 13.2N 101.3W 14.0N 103.9W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 55KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 0000 070902 0000 070903 0000 070904 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 103.0W 17.0N 106.0W 18.7N 109.5W 20.2N 113.3W
BAMD 14.3N 105.2W 15.7N 108.5W 17.3N 111.6W 18.8N 114.3W
BAMM 15.2N 103.9W 16.8N 106.9W 18.5N 110.4W 20.0N 114.1W
LBAR 15.0N 106.6W 17.3N 111.1W 19.6N 114.6W 19.7N 116.4W
SHIP 67KTS 81KTS 90KTS 91KTS
DSHP 67KTS 81KTS 90KTS 91KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 96.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 93.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KMIA 300111
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0111 UTC THU AUG 30 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952007) 20070830 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 0000 070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 96.6W 12.9N 98.2W 13.7N 99.8W 14.5N 101.4W
BAMD 12.0N 96.6W 12.5N 98.9W 13.0N 101.1W 13.6N 103.3W
BAMM 12.0N 96.6W 12.9N 98.4W 13.7N 100.3W 14.4N 102.2W
LBAR 12.0N 96.6W 12.4N 98.7W 13.2N 101.3W 14.0N 103.9W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 55KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 0000 070902 0000 070903 0000 070904 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 103.0W 17.0N 106.0W 18.7N 109.5W 20.2N 113.3W
BAMD 14.3N 105.2W 15.7N 108.5W 17.3N 111.6W 18.8N 114.3W
BAMM 15.2N 103.9W 16.8N 106.9W 18.5N 110.4W 20.0N 114.1W
LBAR 15.0N 106.6W 17.3N 111.1W 19.6N 114.6W 19.7N 116.4W
SHIP 67KTS 81KTS 90KTS 91KTS
DSHP 67KTS 81KTS 90KTS 91KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 96.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 93.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: Invest 95E in EPAC,Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Mods erase post my bad.
Last edited by windstorm99 on Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 95E in EPAC,Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301025
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GIL LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GIL ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
ABPZ20 KNHC 301025
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GIL LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GIL ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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Re: Invest 95E in EPAC,Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC THU AUG 30 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952007) 20070830 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200 070901 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 97.5W 14.0N 98.8W 15.0N 100.1W 15.8N 101.3W
BAMD 13.0N 97.5W 13.7N 99.7W 14.2N 101.8W 14.6N 103.7W
BAMM 13.0N 97.5W 14.0N 99.1W 14.7N 100.8W 15.4N 102.3W
LBAR 13.0N 97.5W 13.6N 99.4W 14.5N 101.6W 15.3N 103.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 1200 070903 1200 070904 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 102.8W 18.3N 106.2W 20.2N 110.6W 20.9N 114.7W
BAMD 15.1N 105.4W 16.2N 108.7W 17.8N 112.3W 19.4N 115.0W
BAMM 16.0N 103.8W 17.3N 107.0W 19.2N 111.1W 20.8N 114.6W
LBAR 16.2N 106.0W 18.6N 109.8W 20.6N 112.9W 22.6N 115.3W
SHIP 65KTS 81KTS 89KTS 88KTS
DSHP 65KTS 81KTS 89KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 97.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 96.4W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 95.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC THU AUG 30 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952007) 20070830 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200 070901 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 97.5W 14.0N 98.8W 15.0N 100.1W 15.8N 101.3W
BAMD 13.0N 97.5W 13.7N 99.7W 14.2N 101.8W 14.6N 103.7W
BAMM 13.0N 97.5W 14.0N 99.1W 14.7N 100.8W 15.4N 102.3W
LBAR 13.0N 97.5W 13.6N 99.4W 14.5N 101.6W 15.3N 103.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 1200 070903 1200 070904 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 102.8W 18.3N 106.2W 20.2N 110.6W 20.9N 114.7W
BAMD 15.1N 105.4W 16.2N 108.7W 17.8N 112.3W 19.4N 115.0W
BAMM 16.0N 103.8W 17.3N 107.0W 19.2N 111.1W 20.8N 114.6W
LBAR 16.2N 106.0W 18.6N 109.8W 20.6N 112.9W 22.6N 115.3W
SHIP 65KTS 81KTS 89KTS 88KTS
DSHP 65KTS 81KTS 89KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 97.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 96.4W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 95.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: Invest 95E in EPAC,Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301611
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GIL LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
ABPZ20 KNHC 301611
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GIL LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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Re: Invest 95E in EPAC-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 301630
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 97.3W TO 15.1N 101.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 97.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 311630Z.
//
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 95E.
WTPN21 PGTW 301630
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 97.3W TO 15.1N 101.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 97.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 311630Z.
//
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 95E.
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Re: Invest 95E in EPAC-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
WHXX01 KMIA 301836
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC THU AUG 30 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952007) 20070830 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 1800 070831 0600 070831 1800 070901 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 97.0W 15.4N 98.3W 16.6N 99.6W 17.8N 101.0W
BAMD 14.1N 97.0W 14.9N 98.9W 15.5N 100.6W 16.1N 102.2W
BAMM 14.1N 97.0W 15.2N 98.4W 16.0N 99.9W 16.9N 101.4W
LBAR 14.1N 97.0W 14.9N 98.7W 15.7N 100.8W 16.6N 102.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 63KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 63KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800 070904 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 102.7W 21.0N 106.8W 22.6N 112.0W 21.7N 117.0W
BAMD 16.8N 103.6W 19.1N 106.1W 22.4N 108.8W 25.7N 111.2W
BAMM 17.9N 102.8W 20.4N 106.4W 22.8N 110.8W 23.6N 116.1W
LBAR 17.5N 104.8W 19.7N 108.4W 22.3N 111.3W 26.1N 113.1W
SHIP 77KTS 101KTS 109KTS 98KTS
DSHP 77KTS 90KTS 99KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 95.9W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 94.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC THU AUG 30 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952007) 20070830 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 1800 070831 0600 070831 1800 070901 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 97.0W 15.4N 98.3W 16.6N 99.6W 17.8N 101.0W
BAMD 14.1N 97.0W 14.9N 98.9W 15.5N 100.6W 16.1N 102.2W
BAMM 14.1N 97.0W 15.2N 98.4W 16.0N 99.9W 16.9N 101.4W
LBAR 14.1N 97.0W 14.9N 98.7W 15.7N 100.8W 16.6N 102.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 63KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 63KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800 070904 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 102.7W 21.0N 106.8W 22.6N 112.0W 21.7N 117.0W
BAMD 16.8N 103.6W 19.1N 106.1W 22.4N 108.8W 25.7N 111.2W
BAMM 17.9N 102.8W 20.4N 106.4W 22.8N 110.8W 23.6N 116.1W
LBAR 17.5N 104.8W 19.7N 108.4W 22.3N 111.3W 26.1N 113.1W
SHIP 77KTS 101KTS 109KTS 98KTS
DSHP 77KTS 90KTS 99KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 95.9W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 94.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Invest 95E in EPAC-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
NONAME at NRL,but as always storm2k waits for the official word from NHC.
NONAME at NRL,but as always storm2k waits for the official word from NHC.
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- P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: Invest 95E in EPAC-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
SAB and TAFB both with a CI of T2.0 at 1745.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Invest 95E in EPAC-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
WTPZ31 KNHC 302026
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS
DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ACAPULCO TO
ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...MICHOCAN...AND COLIMA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 302027
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. A
SHIP REPORT AT 1700 UTC OF 41 KT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED
BY HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM GETS TO LAND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING MOST OF THE SEASON. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS RAPID STRENGTHENING...TO 101 KT IN 72
HOURS...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THE GFDL/HWRF
DO NOT INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM VERY MUCH EVEN THOUGH THEY KEEP THE
SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES STEERED BY WEAK
RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND 3 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.3N 97.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.0N 98.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 15.9N 99.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 16.8N 100.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 17.5N 102.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 20.3N 108.3W 75 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 111.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS
DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF ACAPULCO TO
ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COASTLINE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...MICHOCAN...AND COLIMA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 302027
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. A
SHIP REPORT AT 1700 UTC OF 41 KT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
THE FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED
BY HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM GETS TO LAND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING MOST OF THE SEASON. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS RAPID STRENGTHENING...TO 101 KT IN 72
HOURS...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THE GFDL/HWRF
DO NOT INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM VERY MUCH EVEN THOUGH THEY KEEP THE
SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES STEERED BY WEAK
RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND 3 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.3N 97.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.0N 98.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 15.9N 99.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 16.8N 100.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 17.5N 102.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 20.3N 108.3W 75 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 111.0W 75 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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