Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Weatherfreak14]

^ it think it will prolly develop in that time range but ican see it developing most likely in a 72hr range... First it needs to get a better grip on its convection.

[Bane]

I disagree with several of the above posters writing off 94L, but I do agree with the NHC. The official forecast as stated by the NHC is for environmental conditions to become more favorable for development. I'll go with the official forecast and say 94L is not dead and has a chance for development as we near September 1st.

I'm not sure if you were referring to my post that I didn't expect any development over the next 2-3 days, but I'm not saying it's dead, just that the best chance of development may be in the 4-6 day time frame when it reaches the central and western Caribbean as opposed to the next few days.

I am sure he was not referring to your post. My guess it was the Derek Ortt post, if I'm not wrong. Here is Derek's post:
"
I am seeing 94L slightly less organized this morning, just spit out a MASSIVE outflow boundary and I no longer see any signs of a surface circulation
chances of development just went down to close to nothing during the next couple of days
probably time to start focusing on the next system, as this one just blew itself up from the looks of morning visibles.
I am seeing 94L slightly less organized this morning, just spit out a MASSIVE outflow boundary and I no longer see any signs of a surface circulation chances of development just went down to close to nothing during the next couple of days probably time to start focusing on the next system, as this one just blew itself up from the looks of morning visibles."
.

i'd just like to add that derek isn't writing it off either. he clearly says he doesn't see development for the next couple days.

[HURAKAN]

It's almost September, NOTHING can be disregarded in the tropics.

[vbhoutex]

That is not the point.
Pasting an NHC forecast without proper acknowledgement is not acceptable!

BINGO!!!!!! We have a strict policy about this type of posting here at S2K and it has been well publicized!!

ALL cut and pastes from another source MUST have proper acknowledgement of the source. If they do not they will be deleted without warning and the poster may face an immediate suspension of a length to be determined by the staff. This is not a choice!!! It is a legal issue and we will enforce it diligently!

[HURAKAN]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html


"Poofing" at the moment. Like many have already said, development before the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely.

[vbhoutex]

Nothing to be concerned with until at least Sept.

Are you sure? How can you back up a statement such as this? I realize how many days are left in August, but ???????

[dwg71]

Nothing to be concerned with until at least Sept.

Are you sure? How can you back up a statement such as this? I realize how many days are left in August, but ???????

Because September is really only a matter of hours away. It was tounge in cheek. If either invest gets a name, I hope it is in August, because I voted "three" in the "how many August storms poll"

[skysummit]

From 2:05pm Disco:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOTED.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 42W-49W.

[gatorcane]

I would be focusing on the wave behind this one.....just my opinion.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC WED AUG 29 2007

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070829 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070829 1800 070830 0600 070830 1800 070831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 48.3W 12.0N 51.2W 13.1N 54.1W 14.1N 57.5W
BAMD 11.0N 48.3W 11.3N 50.6W 11.6N 52.9W 12.1N 55.4W
BAMM 11.0N 48.3W 11.1N 51.3W 11.4N 54.3W 11.7N 57.4W
LBAR 11.0N 48.3W 11.0N 51.2W 11.2N 54.4W 11.5N 57.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070831 1800 070901 1800 070902 1800 070903 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 60.8W 18.2N 67.1W 20.0N 73.1W 21.2N 77.7W
BAMD 12.6N 58.0W 13.6N 63.3W 14.4N 68.9W 14.9N 74.3W
BAMM 12.4N 60.4W 13.9N 66.9W 15.3N 74.1W 16.0N 81.4W
LBAR 11.9N 61.2W 13.3N 68.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 79KTS 88KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 79KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 44.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 41.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

one should disregard SHIPS as SHIPS assumes TD status. We do not even have anything at the surface besides a very weak wave, much less a TD

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a reason why the south Atlatnic gets so few storms. It is not the SSTs, but the subtropical high pressure is so strong that the air mass is very stable and shear is also very strong from the base of it; that is what we are seeing. It takes a amazing balance to have a great cape verde season...Possiblely a subtropical high only a few degrees north and a few millibars weaker. Intill then don't expect anything unless it gets lucky outside the caribbean. I would seriously watch this once into the caribbean; mainly the western part as it slows down and gets into a more favorable part.

We will all see but if I had to put money on the first storm to develop, it would be 95L.

[wxman57]

I suggest taking a look at the latest WV loop. The ridge to 94L's north is moving faster than 94L. There's an upper level low digging down toward 94L now. It appears to be causing increasing shear already. Chances of development at least for the next 3 days appear to be dwindling. We'll still need to watch it closely when it reaches the western Caribbean next week, though. But I don't think it'll develop before then.

[wxman57]

There is a reason why the south Atlatnic gets so few storms. It is not the SST's but the subtropical high pressure is so strong that the air mass is very stable and shear is also very strong from it, that is what we are seeing. It takes a amazing balance to have a great cape verde season...Possiblely a subtropical high only a few degrees north and a few millibars weaker. Intill then don't expect anything unless it gets lucky outside the caribbean. I would seriously watch this once into the caribbean; mainly the western part as it slows down and gets into a more favorable part.

We will all see but if I had to put money on the first storm to develop, it would be 95L.

95L isn't looking too healthy now, either. Lots of shear as the upper trof digs down right over it. My money would be on the unnamed invest over the southern Yucatan once it moves over the BoC tomorrow. May have a long enough window to become a TD before it moves back into MX.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg


Yeah the ULL is near 27 north/43 west. A ull is at the upper levels but there is still a strong high pushing it westward at the lower levels. Both are making sure this has no chance intill at least 65 west. As note all the dry air around it, the area of moisture is growing smaller with time.

[Sanibel]

94L looks like remnant coriolis circulation left over from a blasted disturbance that got crushed by synoptics. If this recovers it will be a lesson.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL FRONTAL LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[skysummit]

The NHC isn't giving up on 94L just yet!

[Brent]

They've had the exact same wording for 2 days now.

[HURAKAN]

They've had the exact same wording for 2 days now.

Copy and paste. Do they have copyright regulations in the NHC!!!!