Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[DrewFL]

That is not the point.
Pasting an NHC forecast without proper acknowledgement is not acceptable!

[Meso]

YES SIR!
No need to get your panties in a twist over a mis-copy and paste.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

There...

[Blown Away]

My first look this morning, 94L looking much better on the IR. It may be on it's way to a TD, IMO

[Meso]

[Lowpressure]

Still looks very unorganized to me. I do not see anything yet to indicate a TD. Looks like a better area of convection, but no structure or banding yet IMO.

[Nimbus]

Mid level moisture is improving.

Tutt low is dropping in over Hispaniola but there is nothing but ridge between 94l and there.

The models are in better agreement taking the storm through the Caribbean.

Kind of looks like the Dean upper air setup except the plains ridge is centered much further east over Georgia. Good news for Florida..

[Thunder44]

Latest QS at 8:47 UTC a broad area of low pressure center near 10N and 39W:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Most of the convection this morning is well NE of the center, north of 10N and west of 42W. With some limited banding-type convection just south of center. Overall this system still appears large and disorganized.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[kranki]

<off-topic>Sorry for quick off topic, but wxman57 be careful about being on a landline during a thunderstorm. Several people a year die from a power surge in the line. I use a portable phone during thunderstorms.</off-topic>

It does seem to be growing this morning.

[BigA]

Slowly looking better...We'll see if it continues today.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH
A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BROAD LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 41W-47W.

[Bane]

That is not the point.
Pasting an NHC forecast without proper acknowledgement is not acceptable!

he left off the name by mistake. it's not like he killed a dog that lost in a fight. some of us need to relax sometimes.

[wxman57]

It appears the disturbance is still moving at 20 mph or so. I'd put it between 46-47W this morning. No better organized than yesterday. Probably won't develop in the next few days. ECMWF is still showing the 500mb high due north of 94L for the next 5-6 days. I can now see the 850mb vorticity on the EC (though it shows no LLC) tracking almost due west toward Honduras. Also, it now takes the system into the Caribbean on Friday vs. Sunday.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,from now on,every time a NHC product comes out,TWO,TWD,TCFA etc,lets cut and paste the whole thing to avoid any confusion like what happened this morning on page 15 at the end of that page and the top of page 16.Or if you are going to cut and paste a NHC product,identify the product and the time it is issued,and if is with a link much better.

[Buck]

Its looking marginally better today than it did yesterday, I'd say. During the day and tonight I would expect it to start getting it's act together.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It appears the disturbance is still moving at 20 mph or so. I'd put it between 46-47W this morning. No better organized than yesterday. Probably won't develop in the next few days. ECMWF is still showing the 500mb high due north of 94L for the next 5-6 days. I can now see the 850mb vorticity on the EC (though it shows no LLC) tracking almost due west toward Honduras. Also, it now takes the system into the Caribbean on Friday vs. Sunday.

Still looks like something I like to call "crap" this morning...

[chrisnnavarre]

Mid level moisture is improving.

Tutt low is dropping in over Hispaniola but there is nothing but ridge between 94l and there.

The models are in better agreement taking the storm through the Caribbean.

Kind of looks like the Dean upper air setup except the plains ridge is centered much further east over Georgia. Good news for Florida..

Good for most of Florida but probably doesn't let the Panhandle off the hook. Every time I see developing tracks like this I think of Ivan. South of Cuba, slow turn into the GOM and a slow track all the way to destination.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1216 UTC WED AUG 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070829 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070829 1200 070830 0000 070830 1200 070831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 46.9W 11.9N 49.7W 12.9N 52.6W 13.9N 55.7W
BAMD 10.9N 46.9W 11.1N 49.0W 11.3N 51.2W 11.6N 53.5W
BAMM 10.9N 46.9W 11.3N 49.5W 11.7N 52.0W 12.1N 54.8W
LBAR 10.9N 46.9W 11.1N 49.8W 11.1N 52.8W 11.1N 55.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070831 1200 070901 1200 070902 1200 070903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 59.0W 17.3N 65.4W 19.1N 71.6W 19.8N 77.2W
BAMD 12.1N 55.9W 13.1N 60.7W 13.9N 65.7W 14.3N 70.8W
BAMM 12.6N 57.8W 13.8N 63.8W 15.1N 70.4W 15.7N 77.5W
LBAR 11.4N 59.1W 12.2N 65.5W 14.1N 71.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 66KTS 77KTS 85KTS
DSHP 50KTS 66KTS 77KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 46.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 43.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[bucman1]

Its way to early, for something that even isn't deveolped to say this area is out of the woods or that area is out of the woods.

As we all know here the initial model forecasts hardly ever pan out.

My 2 cents.

Craig

[hurricanetrack]

Hey, the NOGAPS carries it which is one global on board....

And, look at that SHIPS, 100 mph huh? Looks like a track towards Central America too. So much for "east coast trough" ruling the roost this season. More like "monster ridge" defines 2007 so far. We shall see, hard to think all systems will go in to Mexico this season.