Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

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Re: 94L-Discussions-00:00z BAM Models=275 at 10kts,page 13

#261 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:11 pm

Image

This morning they were tracking towards Southamerica.Tonight they are more north.
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Re: 94L-Discussions-00:00z BAM Models=275 at 10kts,page 13

#262 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:12 pm

not sure about 10knots that seems slow to me...pretty set in stone this will track west for the next few days with that ridge to the north...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
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Re:

#263 Postby superfly » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:20 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:When the outlook calls for conditions to become more favorable in the coming days for 94L, what do you all think those conditions would be? In other words, what's wrong now that would not be wrong in a few days. How will conditions improve? Any thoughts?


Warmer SSTs
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Re: Re:

#264 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:32 pm

superfly wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:When the outlook calls for conditions to become more favorable in the coming days for 94L, what do you all think those conditions would be? In other words, what's wrong now that would not be wrong in a few days. How will conditions improve? Any thoughts?


Warmer SSTs


And even moister conditions...its not in an unfavorable environment now as far as the moisture levels are concerned but later in the period it will be even moister...also shear will drop from 5 to 10 knots to near no shear under the upper level ridge over the central Atlantic. Not sure what the models are seeing that could slow the system down...I see a 18 knot westerly motion at about 275 to 280 for the next 4 to 5 days and THEN it may begin to slow down a bit like Dean did once it reached the eastern Caribbean. Otherwise...I AM CLUELESS!!!! :D
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Re: 94L-Discussions-00:00z BAM Models=275 at 10kts,page 13

#265 Postby MWatkins » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:42 pm

I wasn't sold on the fast movement earlier today. I honestly don't think it was moving that fast...but instead the "center" was so poorly defined...and the system was stretched out in the horiziontal...

SAB and TAFB fixes are pretty far apart:

TAFB: 10.5N 41.0W
SAB: 11.1N 41.6W

And east of the 0Z model initialization.

Not sure waht is going on right now but whatever it is...it isn't very organized.

MW
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Re: 94L-Discussions-00:00z BAM Models=275 at 10kts,page 13

#266 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:43 pm

BAMS indeed have been trending north all day today.Dont like that forward speed at 10kts.

Does not look good tonight.
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Re: Invest 94L in Central Atlantic-Discussions-Analysis-Imagery

#267 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:50 pm

Wxman57 any thoughs on the forward speed at 10kts...
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#268 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:07 pm

Image
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Re: Invest 94L Atlantic-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Shortly

#269 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:07 pm

The US coastline seems safe for now at least until the powerful ridge that kept "Dean" well to the south of the US breaks down(hope it stays in place as long as possible)
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#270 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:11 pm

wow models are trending North interesting...
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Re: Invest 94L Atlantic-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Shortly

#271 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:12 pm

It expanded and took in the ridge air from above and choked its tropical fuel mix. Should regroup and fire a center burst tonight (if it wasn't done in by those conditions).
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Re: Invest 94L Atlantic-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Shortly

#272 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:13 pm

If the circulation is near 11N/42W, the convection is building nicely to the west and south.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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#273 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:15 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN LIMITED
THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME
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Re: Invest 94L Atlantic-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Shortly

#274 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:17 pm

How soon *if at all* will RECON and the NOAA Gulfstream IV fight crews can do their thing :?:
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Derek Ortt

#275 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:19 pm

possible NOAA flight on Friday
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Re: Invest 94L Atlantic-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Shortly

#276 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:19 pm

jaxfladude wrote:How soon *if at all* will RECON and the NOAA Gulfstream IV fight crews can do their thing :?:


55W.
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Re:

#277 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:20 pm

skysummit wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN LIMITED
THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

And take a swipe at some part of the east coast of Florida down the road?
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Re: Invest 94L Atlantic-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Shortly

#278 Postby boca » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:20 pm

jaxfladude wrote:How soon *if at all* will RECON and the NOAA Gulfstream IV fight crews can do their thing :?:


I believe 94L has to get to 55W before a recon go fly into it. I do smell a burst from what I saw on the floater.
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Re: Invest 94L Atlantic-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Shortly

#279 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:23 pm

jaxfladude wrote:The US coastline seems safe for now at least until the powerful ridge that kept "Dean" well to the south of the US breaks down(hope it stays in place as long as possible)


While I think the east coast is safe, I don't think the Gulf is. I can't see that same ridge being exactly in the same place by the time this storm(if it develops) reaches the gulf(if it goes there)...USA was fairly lucky at the timing and placement of the ridge that intercepted Dean...
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Invest 94L-Discussions=10:30 PM TWO Posted on Page 14

#280 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:26 pm

They didn't change a letter of the TWOAT except for the time, did they, from the previous one.?.?
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