Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[windstorm99]

[Weatherfreak14]

WOW, this board will completly overload with that much activity...

[skysummit]

boy, it's really peaking it out for the peak!

[bvigal]

windstorm99 - nice blowup. what model, what run, how many hours? (:eek: my heart skipped a couple of beats)

[skysummit]

BV...that's the 12z GFS at 384 hours....Bam BAM BAMMMM!!!!

[windstorm99]

windstorm99 - nice blowup. what model, what run, how many hours? (:eek: my heart skipped a couple of beats)

Its from 12z GFS....Its likely wrong but the signal is there as we approach the peak of the season.

If it were to verify the board will probably explode.

[Meso]

To clear any possible confusion. That run Windstorm posted with the storms on the GFS has nothing to do with 94l and those are all other systems that it develops

[ConvergenceZone]

GFDL dissipates it....

GFDL was wrong about Dean, it can be wrong about this one.

[bvigal]

whew! 14days out? I won't worry about that yet. Someone said the GFDL dissipates 94L in 24hrs. Isn't that model that couldn't get a grip on Dean early on? (tried to select "thinking" icon here - it not working)




*edited by southerngale to add icon for bvigal.




The code is:

Code: Select all

:think:

[windstorm99]

I am actually surprised to see a 12z GFDL, since the Invest came out after the 12z began running.Things could change on the next run.

[PhillyWX]

Leave it to the 384 hour GFS to give hurricane weenies what they want. In three months it'll show three or four snowstorms in the pipeline for I-95.

[otowntiger]

Wow. THat accuweather graphic does a good job of hyping something that's not there, and a good chance (70% according to Derek) that it won't ever be.

[PhillyWX]

Wow. THat accuweather graphic does a good job of hyping something that's not there, and a good chance (70% according to Derek) that it won't ever be.

Love the cone of uncertainty...from Bermuda to Nicaragua!

[Meso]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH A
1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-44W. FURTHER N...AN AREA OF DRY AIR/ AFRICAN DUST
IS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE N OF 15N TO 20N.

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

Dont post about long range runs here.Those are being posted in the Long Range Models thread in Talking Tropics forum.

[gatorcane]

that Accuweather graphic really gets me mad. They make it look like it is headed for the SE US.

As Derek says there is no evidence of that right now.

They show a 10 day cone!

[miamicanes177]

Wow. THat accuweather graphic does a good job of hyping something that's not there, and a good chance (70% according to Derek) that it won't ever be.

It would not be out of the question for the 6th named storm to form in an area of very low shear as we enter early September. Crazier things have happened and this becoming Felix is very plausible.

[x-y-no]

that Accuweather graphic really gets me mad. They make it look like it is headed for the SE US.

As Derek says there is no evidence of that right now.

They show a 10 day cone!

Looks like they did that track purely on climatology.

[SouthFloridawx]

Favorable conditions ahead for this wave...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

Wind shear is well below normal for this time of year, at this point.