Hypothetical Hurricanes

[JonathanBelles]

Category 5: where are you getting that map?

[Category 5]

Category 5: where are you getting that map?

I forget where I got it, I made that last fall, let me look for it hold on.

EDIT: Found it, here you go

[Chacor]

I don't like doomsday storms. I find it rather unkind.

ZCZC S2KTCPAT5 ALL CCA
TTAA00 KS2K DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
STORM2K HURRICANE CENTER
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2100

...CORRECTED TIME IN REPEAT PARAGRAPH...

...TS TEN STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL NORTH OF TULUM...

AT 10 PM CDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY
IS BEING DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED LIKELY
FOR THE AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CAMPECHE ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE...
FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTH TO BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR WESTERN CUBA... INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM TEN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT... 0300Z... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST... ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 200 MILES... 320 KM SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL.

TROPICAL STORM TEN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH... 35 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK... TROPICAL STORM TEN SHOULD PASS OVER COZUMEL WITHIN 12 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 105 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST... AND TS TEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM TEN IS A LARGE SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 245 MILES... 390 KM... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED RECENTLY BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB... 29.24
INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN... BELIZE...
GUATEMALA... AND CENTRAL MEXICO AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH... WITH MAXIMUM
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE
TROPICAL STORM TEN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION... 18.9 N... 84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... NORTHWEST
NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE STORM2K HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM
CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

FORECASTER NAME

[Cyclone1]

I agree, Chacor, I don't like doomsday storms either. Nice one! Why wasn't it TS ten named?

[Chacor]

I agree, Chacor, I don't like doomsday storms either. Nice one! Why wasn't it TS ten named?

I couldn't think of a good I or J name.

[Cyclone1]

I agree, Chacor, I don't like doomsday storms either. Nice one! Why wasn't it TS ten named?

I couldn't think of a good I or J name.

Lol.

[JonathanBelles]

BWAHAHAHA! lol

[Cyclone1]

HAH! Nice, fact.

[Brent]

BWAHAHAHA! lol

[Chacor]

So, continuing with the same storm from earlier (I'm bored)...

ZCZC S2KTCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KS2K DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
STORM2K HURRICANE CENTER
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2100

...TROPICAL STORM TEN NEARING COZUMEL...COULD BECOME HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...

AT 1 AM CDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
PUNTA ALLEN NORTH TO PROGRESO HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CAMPECHE NORTH TO PROGRESO.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTH
TO BELIZE CITY HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN FOR WESTERN CUBA... INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM TEN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT... 0600Z... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST... ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... WEST OF GRAND
CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES... 220 KM SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL.

TROPICAL STORM TEN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH... 35 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK... TROPICAL STORM TEN SHOULD PASS OVER COZUMEL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
AND CROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND TS TEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL. IT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM.

TROPICAL STORM TEN IS A LARGE SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 245 MILES... 390 KM... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED RECENTLY BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB... 29.18
INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN... BELIZE...
GUATEMALA... AND CENTRAL MEXICO AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH... WITH MAXIMUM
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE
TROPICAL STORM TEN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION... 19.4 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... NORTHWEST
NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE STORM2K HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

FORECASTER NAME

[O Town]

BWAHAHAHA! lol

lol, nice of you to included everyone in that one........

[Jinkers]

Ok, this is my first try at this, lol, I have it going everywhere, as a good fish storm...

[Derek Ortt]

as a minor technical correction... but some of those scenarios should be saying that advisories may be issued by the HPC and not NHC as if a cat 5 slams into Miami, chances are HPC will be issuing the advisories (some scenarios here even would have CPHC issuing advisories)

[Derek Ortt]

as an aside, I very frequently run through scenarios lke this in my min, usually for about 30 minutes before bed... so I know what to do when something like this does happen

[Cyclone1]

My first advisory ever! Written for a storm south of Galveston.

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT SEPT 03 20--

...TROPICAL STORM HARRIS STALLS OFFSHORE GALVESTON, TEXAS... FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON, LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO FREEPORT, TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST.

HARRIS IS COMPLETELY STATIONARY SOUTH OF GALVESTON, TEXAS.
BUT A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, HARRIS IS FORECAST TO BE PUSHED BACK OFF SHORE BY A FRONT. THE COMBINATION IS HARRIS AND THIS FRONT WILL CREATE TORRENTIAL FLOODING...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HARRIS IS CURRENTLY WELL ORGANIZED, WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE... HARRIS MAY POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL, BUT THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE STORM WILL BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL CONTINUE IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 10 TO 25 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE PREDICTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF HARRIS.

DANGEROUS FLOODING IS EXPECTED...RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS ALREADY NEAR 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF GALVESTON...

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE OUTER EDGES OF HARRIS.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.9 N... 94.4 W. STORM IS CURRENTLY NOT MOVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER RETSACEROF


$$
NNNN

[Category 5]

as a minor technical correction... but some of those scenarios should be saying that advisories may be issued by the HPC and not NHC as if a cat 5 slams into Miami, chances are HPC will be issuing the advisories (some scenarios here even would have CPHC issuing advisories)

I didn't know that but it makes sense, considering the NHC's systems would probably be down if a cat 5 hit Miami.

[MusicCityMan]

LOL.. Ok here's mine.. Sorta an it can happen tomorrow scenario

HURRICANE MEGAN ADVISORY # 31
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/TPC MIAMI FLORIDA
5PM ET... MONDAY SEPT 3RD 2007

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MEGAN NEARING FLORIDA WEST COAST, TAMPA BAY AREA AT HIGHEST RISK

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GORDA ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SATELLITE BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE ON THE EAST COAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WEST AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.

AT 500 PM ET. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MEGAN WAS LOCATED NEAR APPROX 26 N AND APPROX 83 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON MEGAN ARE 150 MPH. THIS MAKES MEGAN A CATEGORY 4 AND SHE MAY STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY 5 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA TONIGHT.

MEGAN IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LAST MEASURED BY RECON AT 904 MB.

MEGANS WINDFIELD IS VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 125 MILES AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 355 MILES. THIS MEANS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE ON TAMPA BAYS' SHORE WILL EASILY BE 15-20 FT IF NOT HIGHER. THIS COULD CAUSE CATASTROPHIC FLOODING TO FLOOD INTO DOWNTOWN TAMPA. HIGH RISES AND TAMPAS' SKYSCRAPERS SHOULD BE ABANDONED AS THEY WILL BE RIPPED TO SHREDS BY THE HIGH WINDS.

THE ST PETE TIMES FORUM WAS TO BE OPENED AS A SHELTER BUT DUE TO ITS' CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TAMPA BAY, THAT PLAN HAS BEEN SCRAPPED. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY EVACUATED, REMEMBER THE SUNSHINE SKYWAY AND I 4 I 75 AND I 275 WILL CLOSE WHEN WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

ISOLATED STRONGER TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAMPA, ST PETERSBURG, AND ALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE STORM MOVES WEST BY NORTHWESTWARD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN TAMPA AND NEAR THE GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 8-10 INCHES. RAINFALL INLAND FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD BE NEAR 5-7 INCHES.

REPEATING MEGANS POSITION. 26 NORTH 83 WEST. WINDS 150 MPH. MINIMUM PRESSURE 904 MB AND MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8PM EASTERN WILL A FULL ADVISORY AT 11 PM EASTERN.

[MusicCityMan]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MEGAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY # 32 A
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER/TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA
800 PM ET MON SEPT 3RD 2007

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MEGAN NOW CATEGORY 5.. NEARING LANDFALL ON ST PETE BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GORDA ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SATELLITE BEACH NORTHWARD TO ST AUGUSTINE ON THE EAST COAST.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WEST AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.

AT 800PM ET. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MEGAN WAS LOCATED AT APPROX. 26.1 NORTH AND ABOUT 81.9 WEST.. OR ABOUT 30 MILES OFF THE COAST OF ST PETERSBURG FLORIDA.

PREPERATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. IF U HAVE NOT EVACUATED, I 4 I 75 I 275 AND THE SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE ALL CLOSED AROUND 630 ET WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS PERSISTENTLY BEGAN EFFECTING THE AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON MEGAN ARE NOW 165 MPH. WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 205 IN THE STORMS CENTER. A RECENT RECON FLIGHT RECORDED A WIND GUST AS HIGH AS 201.

THE LAST PRESSURE READING TAKEN BY RECON WAS DOWN TO 899 MB. THIS MAKES MEGAN 1 OF THE STRONGEST HURRICANES EVER.

MEGAN IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 19 MPH AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 11PM EASTERN IF NOT SOONER. MEGAN HAS BEEN PELTING TAMPA, ST PETERSBURG, AND ALL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 145 MILES AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT NOW 360 MILES. THIS MAKES MEGANS WINDFIELD VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS THE ORLANDO METRO AREA AND WILL PELT THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AS A LAST DITCH RESORT, IF STUCK IN A HIGH RISE OR SKYSCRAPER IN DOWNTOWN TAMPA OR ST PETE, TAKE SHELTER IN A PARKING GARAGE. BUT NOT ON THE HIGHEST FLOOR, OR LOWEST FLOOR DUE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH WINDS.

THE ST PETE TIMES FORUM WAS NOT OPENED AS A SHELTER DUE TO IT'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TAMPA BAY.

STORM SURGE WILL FLOOD DOWNTOWN TAMPA AS WAVES ARE SCHEDULED TO BE AS HIGH AS 20-25 FT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8-10 INCHES ON THE COAST AND 5 TO 7 INCHES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 8PM ET POSITION. 26.1 NORTH 81.9 WEST. MAXIUMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 165 MPH WITH A RECORDED GUST ON RECON OF 201. MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 899 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BE ISSUED AT 11PM EASTERN.

[Cyclone1]

Very nice!

[MusicCityMan]

I actually want to write an "It can happen Tomorrow" report on if a major hurricane hit the Tampa Bay area.. But I don't know if I have the patience to sit here and do so..