Tropical Wave with Cyclonic Turning at 10N 53W

[gatorcane]

There is nothing else to talk about so I decided to open up this thread. It probably won't develop but there is some cyclonic turning on the VIS. It's moving West at about 15 mph.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Good spot for naked spirals this year that poof. So much so that I stopped reporting them.

[Bane]

almost a naked swirl, but there is nothing else.

[Jinkers]

Woo Hoo, something to track-lol, we must be desperate for something to track...

[Steve H.]

I've been watching this one since the early morning visibles. I think it could become a Felix candidate. Perhaps the switch is on

[EyELeSs1]

looks like it has become slightly better organized this morning... low shear and warm water ahead of it....even with this i don't expect much out of it

[caneman]

Latest NASA visible looking very well. Good spot Steve H. Saw your post on a previous thread.

[Steve H.]

Let's see what happens here. We're almost in September so as MWatkins pointed out, somethings gotta give. The action in the Pacific and Indian Oceans has pretty much ceased. It is now (next 10 days) or never in the Atlantic basin. If it doesn't get going soon it ain't gonna go!

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone have a link to a slightly more close up view of this one... my eyes arent what they used to be.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well if this little sucker is gonna go he needs to gain LAT fast! or he will be a shower for Trinidad only!

[Steve H.]

Throw this in your browser. Click on animate, then click on the area you want to enlarge.



http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[gatorcane]

Steering currents should bring this into the SE Caribbean in 3-4 days.

It is starting to flare up some convection over the past couple of hours. Still not getting too excited about it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It has two days to climb above the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago, at least.

South America gets less destructive to weak tropical cyclones passing nearby as the season advances and the heat low shifts further South, but it still either needs to climb about 3º or organize better before it reaches 60ºW.

Light shear

But not much upper support

Water vapor suggests rather dry

The development happy Canadian sees an 850 mb feature, but tracks it due West w/o development.


Hence, while this might be an interesting thing to track, in my humble and non-professional opinion, this probably is not Felix.


I still strongly suspect Felix doesn't get named before September.

[gatorcane]

thunderstorm and shower activity have increased today and it is very close from pulling away from the ITCZ....(that is the key can it pull away?)

[skysummit]

Hmm....there's actually low level convergence here! Let's see if it can do something.

[gatorcane]

conditions are favorable for development for the next few days with low upper-level winds but then after that the Upper-level Low off to the NW may make conditions unfavorable.

[gatorcane]

Latest TWD on this feature indicating this feature is still embedded in the ITCZ but confirms a low-level cyclonic spin to the wave...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47/48W S OF 14N MOVING
10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 44W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gator:

conditions are favorable for development for the next few days with low upper-level winds but then after that the Upper-level Low off to the NW may make conditions unfavorable.

Shear is favorable, but WV shows fairly dry conditions, and there isn't upper level divergence to help this fire off storms.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Maybe tommorow we can look for a dust devil in antartica..

[Sanibel]

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