CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[gotoman38]

We should get one more pass through the eye while it's 1/2 overland... good timing!

[typhoon_tim]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210815
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 31 20070821
080500 1816N 08723W 6960 02911 9738 +115 +115 257059 060 072 006 00
080530 1818N 08724W 6962 02889 9724 +115 +115 254064 067 074 004 00
080600 1819N 08724W 6968 02875 9705 +121 +109 252068 069 074 005 00
080630 1821N 08724W 6969 02857 9689 +123 +096 250066 067 075 001 00
080700 1823N 08725W 6963 02849 9671 +122 +104 246065 067 073 003 00
080730 1824N 08725W 6961 02839 9649 +124 +124 245066 067 077 000 00
080800 1826N 08726W 6967 02812 9637 +118 +118 246070 072 079 002 00
080830 1828N 08726W 6960 02797 9601 +125 +125 248077 080 083 001 00
080900 1830N 08727W 6967 02755 9567 +128 +126 248085 088 088 016 03
080930 1831N 08727W 6974 02711 9540 +102 +102 245093 096 090 028 01
081000 1833N 08728W 6958 02676 9990 +088 +999 245101 104 105 040 01
081030 1835N 08728W 6983 02586 9990 +100 +999 241104 116 121 049 05
081100 1836N 08729W 6915 02535 9990 +099 +999 240094 114 999 999 09
081130 1839N 08729W 7034 02329 9138 +138 +138 213093 106 119 012 05
081200 1841N 08729W 6916 02428 9098 +194 +143 184057 068 080 013 03
081230 1843N 08730W 6986 02317 9061 +222 +130 136044 046 037 005 03
081300 1844N 08733W 7023 02278 9065 +220 +134 103041 044 999 999 03
081330 1843N 08734W 6992 02304 9053 +216 +133 078024 031 029 005 03
081400 1841N 08734W 6967 02326 9044 +223 +126 035005 019 002 004 03
081430 1839N 08733W 6957 02364 9066 +214 +132 266030 034 999 999 03
$$

[Sanibel]

Estimate Chetumal will be 40 miles south of eyewall.

[Coredesat]

904.4 hPa extrapolated

[brunota2003]

And we pretty much have landfall, just shy of 1/2 the eye is onshore:

[gotoman38]

They had to turn around... close!

[Normandy]

Deep convection continues to wrap around the eye.

Folks, you better PRAY something like Dean doesn't hit the US.

[Sanibel]

Wait on that Chetumal pass estimate. Could be wobbling towards it in last frame.

[Normandy]

It should be noted that SFMR recorded peak sustained winds in the southern eyewall of Dean to be 140 mph. Using the forward speed relationship, that puts 180 mph winds in Dean's northern eyewall possibly.

Folks.....DEVASTATING hurricane....historic....likely the strongest ever to strike the Yucatan since recorded history.

[Sanibel]

Belize:

Just spoke to San Pedro again, they said it sounds terrible outside. Heavy rain and wind, sounds like debris is flying. Obviously they can not see outside, but they said it sounds bad. They thought this had to be the worst, but I cautioned the worst may be yet to come.

[Normandy]

"3:17 am CDT

Wind really ripping. Large tree across street blown down. Flags atop building across street blowing off. Horrible howling sound.

Dictated by Josh via telephone; posted by his friend Keith. "



From Chaser Hurricane Josh, located in Chetumal.
Very very scary conditions being reported with the eyewall not even close to making its approach near Chetumal (another hour or two).

[Chris_in_Tampa]

What makes you think SFMR is not included in the surface estimate? The surface wind is the surface wind, you don't add the forward speed.

[brunota2003]

LANDFALL! Waiting for the official word...looks like time will be 8:15 UTC

[typhoon_tim]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210825
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 32 20070821
081500 1839N 08735W 6926 02397 9073 +201 +136 297032 037 999 999 03
081530 1841N 08735W 6963 02337 9049 +219 +127 337011 019 999 999 03
081600 1842N 08734W 6946 02349 9037 +223 +123 105007 012 008 004 03
081630 1843N 08732W 6945 02348 9045 +216 +129 141022 033 027 004 03
081700 1844N 08731W 6974 02325 9069 +201 +138 145054 065 053 004 03
081730 1846N 08731W 7025 02289 9118 +174 +152 136085 102 091 006 00
081800 1849N 08731W 7031 02353 9211 +156 +156 134131 149 110 041 03
081830 1851N 08730W 7049 02441 9351 +118 +118 118158 164 105 029 03
081900 1852N 08730W 7015 02559 9409 +145 +126 113150 157 107 028 03
081930 1854N 08730W 7023 02611 9455 +170 +105 110136 140 090 006 00
082000 1856N 08730W 7030 02647 9515 +155 +105 110129 133 089 000 00
082030 1857N 08729W 6984 02740 9569 +134 +111 107120 123 088 002 00
082100 1857N 08729W 6984 02740 9594 +124 +115 107117 119 085 000 00
082130 1900N 08729W 6963 02817 9633 +116 +116 105111 114 078 001 00
082200 1902N 08729W 6959 02843 9677 +110 +110 106109 109 073 001 00
082230 1904N 08728W 6961 02858 9674 +124 +113 107108 110 071 002 00
082300 1905N 08728W 6959 02878 9689 +129 +105 107106 108 066 002 00
082330 1907N 08728W 6960 02894 9696 +138 +102 106102 102 069 001 00
082400 1909N 08728W 6962 02902 9712 +135 +113 107098 100 072 005 00
082430 1911N 08727W 6959 02914 9728 +130 +125 109096 097 077 006 00
$$


STILL 164 FL

[Normandy]

What makes you think SFMR is not included in the surface estimate? The surface wind is the surface wind, you don't add the forward speed.

SFMR recorded winds of 120 kts in the southern eyewall. Since the forward speed in this cane is 20 mph, the winds in the *northern* eyewall are likely close to 155-160 kts....according to SFMR.

[miamicanes177]

164kts this pass yet again.

[Hockey007]

FL winds of around 164 kt, but SFMR readings are coming short once again, any idea why?

[typhoon_tim]

will be interesting to see NHC's 5AM "Landfall Advisory"

[Normandy]

164 kts....

Using the .100 reduction yields 185 mph.
Using the .92 reduction suggests 175 mph.
Using the .90 reduction suggests 170 mph.
Using the. .85 reduction suggests 160 mph.

[Normandy]

164kts this pass yet again.

Hockey,
Per a poster at Easternuswx, the SFMR has not topped 120 kts much, even in the northern eyewall at times.