CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[miamicanes177]

The only thing to stop Dean now is land...wow what a storm...this is historic right here. He's making a run for 899mb but the land is too close now.

[Sanibel]

Hate to assert my stupidity, but could somebody translate what this storm is doing now?

[Normandy]

Looking at Dean as he approaches the Yucatan, I see NO deterioration due to land interaction....cleary indicative of a deepening storm.

[Coredesat]

[baitism]

Hate to assert my stupidity, but could somebody translate what this storm is doing now?

Hurtin' feelings....

I think the storm is about at its peak. Land interaction should start to set in shortly.

[Scorpion]

Lets see if it can beat Mitch now

[marcane_1973]

Dean has went down from 909 to 907 i see now. What about his latest winds???

[Normandy]

Hate to assert my stupidity, but could somebody translate what this storm is doing now?

At this moment, data suggest Dean has winds between 165-170 mph in his Northern eyewall, althogh this band of winds i likely VERY narrow. Still, obs indicate a VERY healthy Cat5 with at least mid Cat-3 winds in all quads of its eyewall.

Land interaction seems to be doing little at this point.


Also, one thing to note.
When Hurricane Andrew approached the FL coast....the lowest pressure was determined when the eye was inland. This suggests that deepening storms can actually deepen UNTIL their entire core eyewall move inland.

[Scorpion]

Its actually 165 kt FL winds per the latest VDM

[Sanibel]

I can't wait to hear reports from Chetumal.

[Texashawk]

Hate to assert my stupidity, but could somebody translate what this storm is doing now?

At this moment, data suggest Dean has winds between 165-170 mph in his Northern eyewall, althogh this band of winds i likely VERY narrow. Still, obs indicate a VERY healthy Cat5 with at least mid Cat-3 winds in all quads of its eyewall.

Land interaction seems to be doing little at this point.


Also, one thing to note.
When Hurricane Andrew approached the FL coast....the lowest pressure was determined when the eye was inland. This suggests that deepening storms can actually deepen UNTIL their entire core eyewall move inland.

Not surprising. Little elevation here and widely dispersed cyclone. Does Dean remind anyone else of Allen as far as size/presentation?

[Coredesat]

URNT12 KNHC 210702 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 21/06:48:30Z
B. 18 deg 36 min N
087 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2285 m
D. 120 kt
E. 171 deg 007 nm
F. 268 deg 123 kt
G. 171 deg 009 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 9 C/ 3049 m
J. 21 C/ 3009 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1504A DEAN OB 13 CCA
MAX FL WIND 165 KT N QUAD 06:53Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

[miamicanes177]

VDM says:

MAX FL WIND 165 KT N QUAD 06:53Z

[Normandy]

Its actually 165 kt FL winds per the latest VDM

165 kt FL winds....using the .92 reduction would suggest near 175 mph surface winds....using .9 reduction indicates 172 mph surface winds.

Evidence suggests Dean is at least a solid 170.



Also of note:
Due to Dean's intense convection, heavy bursts and extreme gusts are likely in and around Dean's eyewall. Should Dean's southern eyewall pass over Chetumal....sustained winds in the range of 120 mph with gusts to 170 mph are very likely. The northern eyewall (Playa Maya?) and points north will experience 165 mph winds with gusts exceeding 200 mph.

[NCSUwpack]

I can't wait to hear reports from Chetumal.

I'll go ahead and report for you. No more Chetumal.

[Duddy]

Its actually 165 kt FL winds per the latest VDM

165 kt FL winds....using the .92 reduction would suggest near 175 mph surface winds....using .9 reduction indicates 172 mph surface winds.

Evidence suggests Dean is at least a solid 170.

OMG! And THIS is the 1ST Hurricane of the Season?!?!?!

[Scorpion]

With the forward speed about the same as Andrew's, this could deepen through landfall and bring very strong winds well inland, perhaps strong Cat 4 winds to Chetumal

[typhoon_tim]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210715
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 25 20070821
070500 1928N 08706W 6964 03028 9885 +109 +102 100104 105 063 005 00
070530 1929N 08706W 6963 03037 9900 +100 +100 101104 105 062 005 00
070600 1931N 08706W 6967 03036 9906 +101 +101 102101 103 057 005 00
070630 1933N 08706W 6963 03053 9913 +101 +101 102100 102 058 004 00
070700 1935N 08706W 6967 03055 9918 +106 +106 100101 102 058 002 00
070730 1936N 08706W 6963 03065 9921 +110 +091 096094 094 060 003 00
070800 1938N 08706W 6966 03063 9932 +105 +089 097092 093 059 000 00
070830 1940N 08706W 6964 03069 9945 +098 +089 098094 095 059 002 00
070900 1942N 08706W 6962 03076 9954 +094 +076 099094 094 057 002 00
070930 1943N 08706W 6966 03073 9965 +090 +087 101092 093 055 003 03
071000 1945N 08706W 6968 03080 9971 +091 +079 102090 091 999 999 03
071030 1945N 08705W 6963 03086 9974 +088 +086 101087 087 999 999 03
071100 1943N 08705W 6960 03082 9967 +088 +083 098087 089 057 000 03
071130 1941N 08706W 6963 03076 9958 +093 +075 097090 093 058 001 03
071200 1939N 08707W 6969 03060 9946 +096 +091 100091 092 056 003 03
071230 1938N 08707W 6960 03069 9933 +100 +100 099088 090 060 004 03
071300 1936N 08707W 6965 03056 9929 +106 +087 095086 088 059 003 00
071330 1935N 08707W 6965 03055 9915 +107 +107 097089 091 057 003 00
071400 1933N 08708W 6960 03054 9918 +100 +100 100095 097 061 003 00
071430 1932N 08708W 6966 03037 9905 +103 +102 100097 098 061 006 00
$$


...on its way back in again..

[superfly]

Chetumal will probably be on the south side of the storm and will "only" get sustained cat 3 winds so it will still be bad but won't be as bad as it could be.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It was 117 knots at the surface though. Wind did not translate.

Using the 71.3% reduction factor at that moment, it would be:

113.4 knots (~ 130.4 mph)
Category Three Hurricane

Very close to SFMR estimate.

Nah, convection is way to intense for this to have a 71.3% reduction factor. SFMR likely was wrong in that instance imo.

That was the reduction factor at that exact moment in time. It is up around 90% in other places.

My site calculates it:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/

The highest wind in the storm has not been translated to the highest surface wind in this storm in the exact same place. I was saying at that particular time the surface wind was lower than in other parts.