CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Chris_in_Tampa]

There was a radar image from 2:27:41AM EDT.

[Texashawk]

Little off direct topic, but wasn't sure where to put this...

Apparently Texas has now just declared a SOE and the Alamodome is being used as a command post/evac shelter for up to 40,000 people. Is there something the Texas EOC knows that we should know...? This is not a joke/troll, BTW... heard it off the Corpus Christi news feed

[dwsqos2]

Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 210633
XXAA 71067 99185 70869 04586 99909 27406 24527 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85595 25025 26026 70301 20257 32025 88999 77999
31313 09608 80605
61616 AF306 1504A DEAN OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1850N08688W 0608 MBL WND 25529 AEV 00000 DLM WND 27
022 909730 WL150 25027 081 =
XXBB 71068 99185 70869 04586 00909 27406 11872 24600 22850 25025
33755 24057 44697 20057
21212 00909 24527 11869 25531 22850 26026 33811 26524 44783 28517
55776 30017 66730 31515 77697 32026
31313 09608 80605
61616 AF306 1504A DEAN OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1850N08688W 0608 MBL WND 25529 AEV 00000 DLM WND 27
022 909730 WL150 25027 081 =


909; 27 knots at the surface; MBL winds of 29 knots.

[typhoon_tim]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210635
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 21 20070821
062500 1722N 08653W 6957 03098 0001 +071 +071 255060 063 999 999 03
062530 1721N 08654W 6969 03089 9999 +077 +077 258060 061 999 999 03
062600 1722N 08655W 6963 03096 0007 +070 +070 254054 056 999 999 03
062630 1723N 08655W 6970 03084 0005 +066 +066 253053 055 999 999 03
062700 1725N 08654W 6962 03086 9990 +063 +999 258051 051 999 999 05
062730 1727N 08654W 6969 03074 9978 +081 +081 267048 050 048 024 03
062800 1729N 08654W 6963 03079 9973 +081 +081 262051 054 050 008 00
062830 1730N 08655W 6967 03067 9971 +080 +080 261056 057 051 010 00
062900 1732N 08655W 6969 03064 9970 +077 +077 260053 055 054 058 03
062930 1734N 08655W 6965 03064 9975 +070 +070 258051 051 055 023 03
063000 1736N 08656W 6968 03059 9969 +072 +072 255051 052 999 999 03
063030 1737N 08656W 6963 03059 9953 +080 +080 253052 052 057 010 03
063100 1739N 08656W 6967 03045 9955 +073 +073 251052 054 056 040 03
063130 1741N 08656W 6968 03042 9955 +069 +069 250056 057 057 039 03
063200 1743N 08657W 6965 03039 9946 +072 +072 253056 057 059 016 00
063230 1744N 08657W 6965 03037 9930 +077 +077 259058 060 060 023 03
063300 1746N 08657W 6966 03027 9915 +087 +087 265062 068 060 045 03
063330 1748N 08658W 6967 03023 9916 +082 +082 261067 069 061 031 03
063400 1749N 08658W 6968 03015 9914 +079 +079 263062 066 062 055 03
063430 1751N 08658W 6967 03014 9908 +077 +077 262060 061 061 015 03
$$

..moving back toward the eye

[Coredesat]

[CronkPSU]

The satellite is back. Seems like a double eyewall is forming, and the eastern quadrant is a bit squashed, but otherwise, the eye has continued warming.

what site are you using? the SSD site still hasn't updated

[Normandy]

I was actually wrong....since the eclipse Dean took a nice northerly jog.

[wxmann_91]

The satellite is back. Seems like a double eyewall is forming, and the eastern quadrant is a bit squashed, but otherwise, the eye has continued warming.

what site are you using? the SSD site still hasn't updated

ghcc

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

warning: It's java.

[philnyc]

The satellite is back. Seems like a double eyewall is forming, and the eastern quadrant is a bit squashed, but otherwise, the eye has continued warming.

Yeah, quite a satellite presentation. I think that the outer band of extremely intense convection outside of the eyewall might have eventually started an ERC and produced a new eyewall if it weren't landfalling, but at this point it'll obviously never happen. I believe the teardrop shape that is developing is due to land influences - the northern half is impinging on land slightly before the southern half.

[WxGuy1]

Yes if that SFMR data is accurate the reduction would be like .93

I thought it strange to be using .85 on such an intense hurricane. Did SFMR support that reduction earlier?

From what I've seen, many of the reduction factors from the previous couple of days fell in the 0.8-0.9 range, thus the reason I've been using the 0.85 reduction factor. Some data have even shown the reduction factor to be down to 0.75. Again, the 0.9 is a rule-of-thumb estimate that is more often going to be an overestimate than an underestimate. This is exactly why it's very nice to have more data to corroborate the reduction estimate -- dropsonde and SFMR data help a lot!

I do agree, however, in an anecdotal sense, that the TREND in the intensity and the vigorousness of the convection (as seen by using a proxy source like IR / cloud top temperature) seem to be pretty good predictors as to the reduction factor to be used (also remembering that the reduction factor will be reduced when the storm is over land, particularly at night!). In this case, we have a strengthening storm with increasingly cold cloud tops (though those two attributes are certainly not 100% unrelated!), so I'd be more likely to use a 0.89-0.92 reduction factor estimate, an increase from the 0.85 that I've found to be beneficial through the past few days.

On the off-topic note... I hope this is NOT true. Over-reaction / over-warning can be very detrimental to the emergency and societal response to events such as these! People become complacent when severe weather forecasts do not verify ("I've been through 10 hurricanes that they said would be terrible, and they turned out to be much lighter than those weather guys were saying"), so it's very important to avoid overreacting to the situation.

[Sanibel]

Belize:

lots of light are staing to spark alot, the reef radio thinks that power willb cut off soon. s o get ready ppl w/h flashes...

Other poster reports losing contact with live reporters online.

[marcane_1973]

Soooo....with what info we have so far looks as if Mr. Mean Dean will go down in history with a pressure of 909mb and 165mph Cat 5 hurricane. Impressive 1st Hurricane of the 2007 season I must say. and......sadly most deadly as well

[typhoon_tim]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210645
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 22 20070821
063500 1753N 08659W 6966 03003 9901 +076 +076 260064 064 063 042 03
063530 1755N 08659W 6967 02998 9890 +078 +078 259069 070 065 023 03
063600 1756N 08659W 6960 02997 9881 +078 +078 257070 072 066 049 03
063630 1758N 08659W 6969 02974 9990 +077 +999 262067 072 067 019 01
063700 1800N 08700W 6962 02977 9990 +076 +999 266068 073 069 020 01
063730 1801N 08700W 6969 02961 9990 +079 +999 271075 078 070 016 01
063800 1803N 08700W 6968 02952 9990 +086 +999 279070 071 999 999 05
063830 1804N 08700W 6971 02937 9813 +091 +091 280067 067 071 037 05
063900 1806N 08701W 6963 02942 9785 +095 +095 276066 069 071 010 01
063930 1807N 08701W 6966 02931 9770 +113 +113 271064 067 070 008 00
064000 1809N 08701W 6968 02915 9760 +112 +112 267064 065 072 008 00
064030 1811N 08702W 6967 02908 9745 +113 +113 264066 066 075 006 00
064100 1812N 08702W 6965 02896 9735 +109 +109 265070 074 076 004 03
064130 1814N 08702W 6965 02877 9704 +122 +118 263071 071 075 005 00
064200 1815N 08702W 6969 02859 9686 +125 +103 264075 077 078 004 00
064230 1817N 08703W 6968 02844 9671 +124 +097 265081 083 082 004 00
064300 1819N 08703W 6966 02821 9651 +118 +102 266086 088 082 005 00
064330 1820N 08703W 6964 02803 9629 +114 +109 266091 091 079 005 00
064400 1822N 08704W 6966 02774 9594 +120 +120 263090 091 083 007 00
064430 1823N 08704W 6968 02743 9583 +101 +101 263096 099 089 055 03
$$

[Coredesat]

Timestamp on adv psn is wrong; will fix at next post.

[ekal]

Thank you, WxGuy and Normandy!

I'm curious; why do the winds (generally) not make it to the surface as effectively at night?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

My site performs a live calculation of the reduction factor:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/
Far right column. Done for every 30 second observation.

I plotted the wind field last night for right after is passed Jamaica. Image does not update:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At night a convergent lay or inversion forms. That doe's not allow the winds to mix as good as when the sun can mix this out. So that is why you have stronger winds at day.

[Zardoz]

Sats are up now. Dean is approaching the coast:

GOES Floater RGB

[Normandy]

One thing of note during the sat eclipse....

Dean's CDO GREATLY expanded.

[baitism]

I am guessing this storm will exit the Yucatan with 100 mph winds. Any other guesses?