CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Praxus]

Check out this live private satelite feed out of Cancun area via Hurricane City, it'l be up all night long... its nasty there already.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm

Nice link..looks nasty there already.

[Scorpion]

I am hoping it hits Chetumal head on as that is where the chasers are and they would then get the best footage possible, perhaps never before seen Cat 5 footage

[CrazyC83]

I am hoping it hits Chetumal head on as that is where the chasers are and they would then get the best footage possible, perhaps never before seen Cat 5 footage

Why hoping there? That would be exponentially greater death and destruction...

[Pebbles]

I am hoping it hits Chetumal head on as that is where the chasers are and they would then get the best footage possible, perhaps never before seen Cat 5 footage

Unless your in a concrete bunker I don't know if that is possible.. and even in a bunker is it possible? You can get damage footage but no way would i risk my even sticking my head near an opening of a window with those kind of winds.

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/upload/4/windfield.gif

[cycloneye]

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO
SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

Aviso de Huracan esta en effecto para toda la costa de Belice.

Un aviso de Tormenta Tropical y una vigilancia de Huracan desde Veracruz hasta Tampico.

[Valkhorn]

For reference purposes:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xcalak

This place has only 400 people but it will probably be gone in 24 hours.

[Scorpion]

I would love to hear the sounds of a Cat 5 howling

[tallywx]

I am hoping it hits Chetumal head on as that is where the chasers are and they would then get the best footage possible, perhaps never before seen Cat 5 footage

not sure how much footage can be garnered at 3 a.m. At best it'll be footage of rain being driven through cracks in concrete in howling stairwells with flickering lights like that Luquillo, PR footage in Hugo...stepped up a few notches, but without the subsequent outdoors "jet-engine blowing trash can" footage.

[Raebie]

I am hoping it hits Chetumal head on as that is where the chasers are and they would then get the best footage possible, perhaps never before seen Cat 5 footage

Assuming that they & their video equipment won't be vaporized of course.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So the recon takes off at 00z or 11pm est? Hopefully it can reach it at its max.

[theworld]

For reference purposes:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xcalak

This place has only 400 people but it will probably be gone in 24 hours.

IMO, Punta Allen will get the Northern eyewall

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

DEAN HAS TAPPED INTO ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 140 KT. DURING THE LAST
PENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AT 00Z...A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 914 MB WAS MEASURED. THE PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 162 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 145 KT AT
THE SURFACE. DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED
ALL OF THE DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA IN REAL-TIME. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 140 KT...PENDING A MORE
THOROUGH EXAMINATION OF ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT
WILL ARRIVE IN THE EYE OF DEAN IN A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EVOLVING
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY
CONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI. REPORTS FROM THE
AIRCRAFT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PROVIDE NO
INDICATIONS OF ANY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WOULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE
STATUS DURING ITS ENTIRE STAY OVER YUCATAN...AND IT COULD STILL
REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE FINAL
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
275/17. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH DEAN ROUGHLY ALONG THIS SAME HEADING AND
SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH
IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WELL-ESTABLISHED HEADING...AND TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND
NOGAPS MODELS. ALONG THE NEW TRACK...DEAN WILL SPEND A LITTLE LESS
TIME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL PASS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE 24-36
HOUR PERIOD. AS A RESULT...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.4N 86.0W 140 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 18.7N 88.6W 140 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
24HR VT 22/0000Z 19.2N 92.1W 85 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
36HR VT 22/1200Z 19.6N 95.6W 95 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
48HR VT 23/0000Z 19.6N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO
72HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[Normandy]

Wow.....Dean is seriously deepening....Seriously cold cloudtops around a warming eye.....

When does recon get in this? I hope soon because this being documented while deepening would be unreal.

[sevenleft]

So the recon takes off at 00z or 11pm est? Hopefully it can reach it at its max.

I think they are supposed to be on site around 1AM eastern.

[Scorpion]

I would not be surprised if recon found a sub 900 pressure. I'll be staying up for sure.

[Normandy]

GOOD NEWS.
If recon is going to be in by 1 am, thats just in time for the sat eclipse....meaing we will still have updates on Dean's strength.

[RDTF]

FYI - CNN had a guy broadcasting live from Chetumal. He was just on.

[marcane_1973]

Cancun Radar back up. You can see the eyewalls now coming into range. http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

[JonathanBelles]

It looks like it may go right over Costa Maya for those that have cruised in the area.

I have been there, I will not likely be there tomorrow.