CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Sanibel]

NOAA Buoy at 19N-85W reported 36 foot wave height.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Anybody know the very last pressure reading? It really looks like it is deepening alot this evening. What a terrible thing...just as it approaches land.

[Derek Ortt]

I did not have internet access when I did that interview

i will ask tomorrow about those areas

[mf_dolphin]

It looks like it may go right over Costa Maya for those that have cruised in the area.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

914 millibars

[Sean in New Orleans]

914 millibars

Thanks!

[Wthrman13]

Don't temperature gradients cause wind as well? Hot air rises, cold air sinks, setting up a circulation. Isn't it both pressure and temperature gradients?

No, not directly. However, temperature gradients can lead to pressure gradients, which lead to wind, but temperature gradients in and of themselves do not produce wind. An example is if you have a bubble of hot air that is more buoyant than it's surroundings, it will rise and leave low pressure behind underneath it, setting up a horizontal pressure gradient from the surroundings, leading to wind blowing in toward the low pressure underneath the rising bubble.

[whereverwx]

The moisture around his eye is gradually becoming more dense while, at the same time, his eye is beginning to warm.

[Sanibel]

Belize. From Ambergris Message Board:

Boy, the surge is getting really big now...is reaching a good 20 feet in at the Palapa.

(I think he means 20 feet in from the shore)

[theworld]

looks like Dean just took slight jog more N-NW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

[KBBOCA]

For any mod -- a suggestion:
You need to change the category of Dean in the listing under "Active Storms Forum"

And also, perhaps someone should change the title of the thread to Cat 5 (and the page # for that announcement). It is hard to find the special announcement in the 8 or 9 pages since the 8 pm intermediate advisory. Some may have missed it.

[tndefender]

Chad Myers on CNN just pointed out a wobble north that he said could make a significant difference to Chetumal.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got a question. Now that the cloud tops are becoming colder=winds can transfer to the surface better. Can we use the .9 reduce instead of the .85 reduce as used earlier?

[dhweather]

I'd love to see some new recon right now.

[Normandy]

Chad Myers on CNN just pointed out a wobble north that he said could make a significant difference to Chetumal.

Yep, it could.
Unfortunately, the last 3 frames on GHCC IR, due westward.

[Stratosphere747]

It's stair-stepping like it did as it neared Jamaica. Normally we make fun of those that watch every single image for each individual wobble.

In this case, and knowing someone in Chetumal. I fixated on each image, hoping for a northward tug!

[theworld]

He cleary took a jog more to the north on this loop, se Lat-Lon grid, how long that will continue, who knows.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN JUST A FEW HOURS
FROM LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO
SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
245 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 310 MILES...500 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEAN WILL CROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY REACH
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS


If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT34 data were found.

638
WTNT24 KNHC 210243
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC TUE AUG 21 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO CHILITEPEC. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO
SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM
VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 86.0W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.7N 88.6W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.2N 92.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 95.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 99.1W...INLAND MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[dhweather]

looks like Dean just took slight jog more N-NW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

The best thing to do is to take an envelope, place it up on your monitor,
and put the envelope in a straight line from the first frame to the last,
you'll see the average motion and the wobbles.

[theworld]

looks like Dean just took slight jog more N-NW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

The best thing to do is to take an envelope, place it up on your monitor,
and put the envelope in a straight line from the first frame to the last,
you'll see the average motion and the wobbles.

Same effect with Lat-Lon grid checked.