CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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#10721 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:08 pm

Image

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Re:

#10722 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This is like a giant EF4 tornado...


EF3, if you want to be black and white about it, but I see what you mean.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 291) Discussions, Analysis

#10723 Postby tndefender » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:08 pm

If Chetumal takes a direct or near direct hit it will be the 4th time since 1940 the town has been leveled by a hurricane.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 291) Discussions, Analysis

#10724 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:10 pm

I have kept logs on this storm ever since it was an invest i have 2pages full of logs on its strength. and I am just awwed by this right now.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#10725 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:12 pm

Keesler is fine with me. My sister was stationed there in the early 80's. Appreciate the work you do, would love to catch a ride some time.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 291) Discussions, Analysis

#10726 Postby theworld » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:12 pm

Check out this live private satelite feed out of Cancun area via Hurricane City, it'l be up all night long... its nasty there already.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm
Last edited by theworld on Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#10727 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:13 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is like a giant EF4 tornado...


EF3, if you want to be black and white about it, but I see what you mean.


The EF scale is gusts, not sustained winds.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#10728 Postby pojo » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:14 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Keesler is fine with me. My sister was stationed there in the early 80's. Appreciate the work you do, would love to catch a ride some time.


unless you are media, then yes... otherwise ... typical passenger, won't happen.
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Re:

#10729 Postby baygirl_1 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:14 pm

Downdraft wrote:Having watched this from a group of thunderstorms to now the most powerful storm on the planet at this time I can just sit here with my jaw dropped open and in a sense numb. I'll wake up in the morning and see the sun but many many others won't. Best we all remember that tonight as we temper our glee of a great storm with the sadness for the loss of life it will bring. :cry:

DH and I were just watching the news and saw that it had been upgraded. It's such a contradictory mix of emotions: absolute awe at the power of it, but sheer horror realizing that all that power is about to take out homes and property and (hopefully not but afraid so) lives. We've been down there twice on cruises. I can see the faces of the folks we met and pray they and their families and friends will be safe. God bless them all.
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Re:

#10730 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:15 pm

Downdraft wrote:Having watched this from a group of thunderstorms to now the most powerful storm on the planet at this time I can just sit here with my jaw dropped open and in a sense numb. I'll wake up in the morning and see the sun but many many others won't. Best we all remember that tonight as we temper our glee of a great storm with the sadness for the loss of life it will bring. :cry:



Totally Agree.
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#10731 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:16 pm

Ehhhhh.....
Judging from sat presentation improving and eye warming since the last recon fix, id estimate that by the time they get there again, they might find a stronger storm.....My estimate would be 904 mb, 170 mph winds (Down 10 mb from now).
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Re: DEAN -Threat Area -Yucatan Peninsula-Mainland Mexico

#10732 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:17 pm

Belize about 50 miles south of estimated landfall:


OK. Update on today. We took walks with the dogs and met with neighbours. It is very humid. The atmosphere is strange. Everyone is wired, exhausted and merry. We know it is hitting at night. When the first band came, you could feel the pressure in your head change. Very strange sensation. The muppets and Tacos came round for a dog walk. At that time the beach just started to disappear. The bugs were running like crazy away from the sea. Lots of bugs. It was quite astounding. Not just one species. I saw at least three species, none of which I can name. A neighbour has pulled his boat out and all of us reckon the boat will be gone by morning. There is nothing near by we can tie it too. What a shame. Everyone seems to be taking advantage of the lull. Lots of people walking dogs and observing the sea rolling in. The end of Victoria House dock is under water. Waves are rolling in under and over the piers. Beach is eroding. I took a cycle at sundown with the dog in the hope of emptying him one last time for the night. The crocs at the lagoon near the water plant were up at the edge. Two of them. There were people enjoying the lull or trying to make it somewhere. Some were surfing. When I say people, I mean the small number who are here still. Maya has just come in and says the water has risen to the level of the Squirrels Nest Bar at Mata Rocks, right up to under the ground floor suite. The waves are huge. Royal Palms dock has started losing boards now. No wind. Just surge and waves. The Discovery Hut at the Royal Palms dock has water in it. We reckon that will be gone by morning. Sea wall at Royal Palms is covered. The water is at the gate. We'll update you when we can. Signing off from the seafront in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye, Belize, Central America.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Recon obs

#10733 Postby Pebbles » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:19 pm

pojo wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Keesler is fine with me. My sister was stationed there in the early 80's. Appreciate the work you do, would love to catch a ride some time.


unless you are media, then yes... otherwise ... typical passenger, won't happen.


*starts a one girl radio station and makes up a flimsy B rated card on her printer which reads "Radio Pebbles Media Inc.* Yeah... I'm media! Sign me up!!!! :cheesy:

I know.. shouldn't post on this thread like this but I couldn't resist! I'll be good now! :)
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 291) Discussions, Analysis

#10734 Postby BigO » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:20 pm

I am so thankful that my younger brother has eschewed his primitive, ex-pat lifestyle doing biological research in the jungles of Belize for the relative safety of a corporate job on Wall Street tonight.

Although I haven't heard back from him, I suspect that he is too.
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Re:

#10735 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:21 pm

Normandy wrote:Ehhhhh.....
Judging from sat presentation improving and eye warming since the last recon fix, id estimate that by the time they get there again, they might find a stronger storm.....My estimate would be 904 mb, 170 mph winds (Down 10 mb from now).


I'd say 165 mph/910mb right now.
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Re: Re:

#10736 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is like a giant EF4 tornado...


EF3, if you want to be black and white about it, but I see what you mean.


The EF scale is gusts, not sustained winds.

and 3 second gusts at that
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 291) Discussions, Analysis

#10737 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:24 pm

This is the first time I've seen a perfect red ring in the highest reading
on the AVN IR image around the eye of a hurricane. The next color up is grey.
I've never seen grey in a hurricane eyewall before.

That may change tonight.
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Re: Re:

#10738 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:25 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Ehhhhh.....
Judging from sat presentation improving and eye warming since the last recon fix, id estimate that by the time they get there again, they might find a stronger storm.....My estimate would be 904 mb, 170 mph winds (Down 10 mb from now).


I'd say 165 mph/910mb right now.



Agreed.
When recon gets in though it likely will be a stronger cyclone.
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Re: Re:

#10739 Postby Stephanie » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:25 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Downdraft wrote:Having watched this from a group of thunderstorms to now the most powerful storm on the planet at this time I can just sit here with my jaw dropped open and in a sense numb. I'll wake up in the morning and see the sun but many many others won't. Best we all remember that tonight as we temper our glee of a great storm with the sadness for the loss of life it will bring. :cry:



Totally Agree.


Ditto on that. :(
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 PM page 291) Discussions, Analysis

#10740 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:26 pm

So how long before the next recon gets in there. I think this could go sub 900 if this keeps up,. But its a watch and see.
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