CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

Chetumal, Quintana Roo,
http://www.delange.org/Chetumal/Chetumal.htm

What a beautiful place... about to be ruined.

Sadly, that is probably what will happen. Hopefully they are all evacuated or in very strong shelter capable of withstanding 190 mph wind gusts. Property can be replaced though. Lives cannot.

This is like a giant EF4 tornado out there...

[cheezyWXguy]

The 18Z HWRF says 892 mb at landfall

IIRC, HWRF was predicting crazy low pressures all the time, so I think we can discard it.

Dont. The HWRF was the only one predicting winds of at least cat4 in the eastern caribbean. (Maybe GFDL) It maybe slightly overdone but has been fairly accurate to some extent in terms of intensity. I gotta say though, if Dean continues to strengthen,I believe we could see a 165-175 mph storm before landfall tomorrow morning, with pressures below 910.

[artist]

hey Derrick - Beverly Hills and Meadow Brooke (that may be Brook) in St. Andrews is where my friends family lives. She still hasn't been able to get in touch with them either. This may actually be Kingston - just the are of it. She told me Kingston first then Beverly Hills and Meadowbrook ?. If you can find out anything if they know of those areas that would be wonderful.

NCSU - sorry you still haven't either. The waiting is just dreadful, isn't it? You are all still in my prayers. Let me know if you hear anything and Derrick if you can find anything out it we would be so grateful,.

[Zadok]

Hopefully they are all evacuated or in very strong shelter capable of withstanding 190 mph wind gusts.

Well that Holiday Inn looks like it ought to do the trick!

[Sanibel]

My opinions are not endorsed by Storm2k or to be taken as official:


The landfall is pretty much pegged by NHC. The storm is perfectly positioned to drain Bahia De Chetumal out into the Caribbean. Keith drained it dry all the way across. This one should be worse. It should push surge across the backside of Ambergris Caye. If the track holds, Ambergris will be in the south side hurricane core at about the half point. I guess at least 100mph sustained.

[miamicanes177]

I gotta say though, if Dean continues to strengthen,I believe we could see a 165-175 mph storm before landfall tomorrow morning, with pressures below 910.

I can not imagine the hell of a strengthening cat 5 landfall. You hear about how bad a strengthening cat 2 or 3 can be. Even Katrina in south florida caught people off guard by how strong it was. I can not imagine the fury of a 5 at peak organization and strength.

[theworld]

This thing keeps looking better and better. A soild red ring has finally formed around the eye. In the eye has cleared out big time. Wish recon would of stayed...This could go easly sub 910.

Dean did just tighten up a bit... Rainbow Color IR Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[ZeeNL]

disclaimer: newby opinion, don't read if you are in the path.

Luckily, landfalling cat 5's are rare. There is a big chance this thing will weaken into a cat 3/4, but that is just from the statistical information I just read. A cat 4 of this size will be catastrophic enough.

[CrazyC83]

disclaimer: newby opinion, don't read if you are in the path.

Luckily, landfalling cat 5's are rare. There is a big chance this thing will weaken into a cat 3/4, but that is just from the statistical information I just read. A cat 4 of this size will be catastrophic enough.

It is moving fast enough that peak intensity will probably be 2 hours or so before landfall. The final approach may weaken the storm 5 mph, or 10 mph maximum. That would keep it a high-end Cat 4 at least. If it can get past 165 mph, there is no turning back.

[Raebie]

Wishful thinking I'm afraid.

[Aquawind]

What a beast Dean has become today! Looks like some serious flooding for the Yucatan and then the Dean swath of devistation. Kinda takes the fun outta hurricane watching knowing what is really going to happen at landfall..

[O Town]

How many hours till landfall now?

By this map I would guess about 5am, I was wondering that myself.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like northrn eyewall will most likely hit Punta Allen and the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve...I can only hope these ares are sparsely populated. Tulum is not far from that area either. Cancun, Cozumel, and playa del carmen look like they should be in better shape, of course they will still have probably have cat 2 sustained and cat 3 gusts up there...

[Stratosphere747]

Chetumal while devastated, survived hurricane Janet.

With that said -

There is a chaser that I have become friends with that is now in Chetmual. I had planned on guiding/chasing with him in Texas if Dean had came our way.

Needless to say my thoughts are now with him.

[theworld]

scroll down for Mex CAMS

http://www.webcamplaza.net/master_frame ... cane1.html

[SunnyThoughts]

Stratosphere...I"ve been watching the chasers posts on another board as well who is now in Chetumal. I too wish him the best and hope he remains safe.

[theworld]

WebCam Message at Quintana Roo
http://www.margaritadelsol.com/toppage2.htm

[jimvb]

Don't temperature gradients cause wind as well? Hot air rises, cold air sinks, setting up a circulation. Isn't it both pressure and temperature gradients?

[KatDaddy]

Which storm chaser's are at Chetumal?

[NCSUwpack]

which part of Jamaica are your family from

The main secretary here has family in jamaica and they have reported only minor damage, at least to well built structures. That was a little NW of Kingston, I believe

Hi Derek, i'm listening to you talking to somebody with a live feed on the internet right now. They live in Kingston toward the southwest. If you've got some information on the damage in that area please let me know.

Thanks.