Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#481 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:34 pm

CronkPSU wrote:this is around the area that WIlma bombed wasn't it?


Yep... and Gilbert.
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#482 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:09 pm

Wow, Dean sure loves concentric eyewalls.
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#483 Postby marcane_1973 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:23 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, Dean sure loves concentric eyewalls.

Yeah.... He has had them almost his whole life. Probably why he has not intensified so quick after he started his first one when he bombed to 918. After that he did an ERC like every 20 minutes and decided one eye was not enough. :lol: Rita did the same thing but it seemed to make her steadily weaken. Seems that alot of storms can struggle with an ERC if they continuously do them. Katrina I believe only had 2. Her eyewall was so well established it seemed she was happy to keep hers for awhile. she had one of the best eyes in my opinion ever.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#484 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:57 pm

MAX FL WIND 155 KT NE QUAD 2306Z

155kt in the NE Quad with a 915mb pressure...Cat 5 in my book.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#485 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:03 pm

At .85 reduce its 151 mph at the surface. But at .9 it would be 160 mph. Since .85 is being used its the 151 mph.
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#486 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:11 pm

155 kts,915 mb is a Cat 5 in my book
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#487 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:14 pm

The recon reports were short lived. This is frustrating.
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Re:

#488 Postby Stormtrack03 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:15 pm

Scorpion wrote:155 kts,915 mb is a Cat 5 in my book


I concer.
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#489 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:16 pm

I do think right now it is a Cat 5 for the first time. If they don't upgrade it now I think they will in the TCR. My current estimate is 140 kt/912mb.
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#490 Postby sevenleft » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:17 pm

But guess what, it's not a Cat 5! It's a very intense Cat 4 until they actually sample Cat 5 winds.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#491 Postby mempho » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:27 pm

It's not a Cat 5. No cigar.
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Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#492 Postby thunderchief » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:27 pm

Lets just call it 'borderline 4/5' and stop the pointless arguing. Or even better just say 915mb.



Anyway, anyone know when the next plane, hopefully with working coms, is going out?
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Re:

#493 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I do think right now it is a Cat 5 for the first time. If they don't upgrade it now I think they will in the TCR. My current estimate is 140 kt/912mb.


Why would it be 912mb? Recon showed it was 915/916.
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Scorpion

#494 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:32 pm

When will they get back into the center of this?
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#495 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:33 pm

We have about ten more years to upgrade it!!! Relax.

P.S. Andrew!!!
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#496 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:38 pm

162 kt FL found last time by. That should seal the deal. That translates into 146 kt at the surface with 90%, or 138 kt with 85%.
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#497 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:39 pm

162 kt in the NW quad....likely a bit higher in the NE.

There is the end of this unnecesary discussion of whether its a 4/5.
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Scorpion

#498 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:40 pm

If we can get 162 kt in NW quad I'd like to see the numbers in the NE quad... perhaps 167-168? That would make Dean 150 kt perhaps. 162 usually means 145 kt by the way
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superfly

Re: Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

#499 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:43 pm

The NW quad > NE quad for a west moving storm, only about the 500th time it's been said.
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#500 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:45 pm

Eh actually i thought the strongest winds were in the northern eyewall for a westward moving storm.
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