Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

MAIN EVENT:

Central Florida vs South Florida

This is the beginning of a looooong match...and there's nothing out there yet!!

At least it's not a Texas vs Florida shootout. They can get ugly.

Too early to tell what part of florida this would "directly" impact.
I say that in quotes because no "center" is designated...as of yet...

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't see a LLC or MLC anywhere. cpdaman.

[vaffie]

It'll be interesting to see what happens when it gets across Florida. The HPC has a cold front coming down into the southeast. I'm not sure a cold front could be that strong at this time of the year--it may lift out quickly again. It will also depend upon where 92L/Felix? ends up. If it ends up around the Keys, it may drift aimlessly for a while over the Loop Current--possibly gaining strength rapidly before another high builds over the Southeast and it starts heading west again towards the western Gulf. if it ends up near the panhandle however, it may not have enough time to strengthen much and also it would have been over land longer and the cold front might be far enough south to pull it north towards the drought-hit parts of the southeast as a weak storm. Will be interesting to see what happens--a lot of different things could happen.

[hial2]

I don't see a LLC or MLC anywhere. cpdaman.

FWIW,it's visible on the WV loop

[gatorcane]

There is clearly a spin with the convection building in the middle of this spin. Click on this link and then click that LatLon box.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Look at the blob in the square between 20N and 25N and 55W and 60W...

no doubt there is mid-level spin going on with the possible LLC moving off to the WNW to NW right now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

23.1 N 56.2 W some cyclonic spin working to surface

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

Not WV , can't see low level cloud motions on WV

[storms in NC]

Still with this cold front coming down it can pull it North. That will put weakness in the ridge. With that said it is any ones game from the Keys Up. IMO

[PTrackerLA]

On the zoomed in floater I really can't see any signs of a low level circulation but looking at the central Atlantic visible loop shows a very broad area of cyclonic turning. I don't think it's any better developed than last night and we're still at least 48 hours from a depression IMO.

[gatorcane]

On the zoomed in floater I really can't see any signs of a low level circulation but looking at the central Atlantic visible loop shows a very broad area of cyclonic turning. I don't think it's any better developed than last night and we're still at least 48 hours from a depression IMO.

Looking at the water vapor loop and visible....the path towards Florida is pretty likely...the ridging in place is powerful from the West Atlantic across the East Coast and into the South Central US.

Look at Dean...still on a due West course....who would have thought?

[skysummit]

storms in NC...which front? The one mentioned for Saturday? Even with that possible front, I see the ridge building.

[RL3AO]

19 pages? For something at least 2 or 3 days from maybe being a depression? Yikes.

[gatorcane]

On the zoomed in floater I really can't see any signs of a low level circulation but looking at the central Atlantic visible loop shows a very broad area of cyclonic turning. I don't think it's any better developed than last night and we're still at least 48 hours from a depression IMO.

Looking at the water vapor loop and visible....the path towards Florida is pretty likely...the ridging in place is powerful from the West Atlantic across the East Coast and into the South Central US. Our invest is moving WNW to NW right now because it is on the SE periphery of an expanding Bermuda High...it should resume a WNW to W movement over the next day or so...then just about due West.

Look at Dean...still on a due West course....who would have thought?

[windstorm99]

19 pages? For something at least 2 or 3 days from maybe being a depression? Yikes.

Last time i checked this is the place for discussions on 92L correct?

[PTrackerLA]

On the zoomed in floater I really can't see any signs of a low level circulation but looking at the central Atlantic visible loop shows a very broad area of cyclonic turning. I don't think it's any better developed than last night and we're still at least 48 hours from a depression IMO.

Looking at the water vapor loop and visible....the path towards Florida is pretty likely...the ridging in place is powerful from the West Atlantic across the East Coast and into the South Central US.

Look at Dean...still on a due West course....who would have thought?

Agreed, seems as though the WNW motion will turn into W due to influence from the ridge. Will be interesting to see if there's a blow-up of convection during the diurnal max overnight. I don't like ANY system forming near the Bahamas heading west.

[skysummit]

19 pages? For something at least 2 or 3 days from maybe being a depression? Yikes.

Yup....and look, you just helped add to that total. This is why it's called a Tropical Forum.

[RL3AO]

19 pages? For something at least 2 or 3 days from maybe being a depression? Yikes.

Last time i checked this is the place for discussions on 92L correct?

I don't have a problem, its just funny that there has been more discussion on this than Dean today.

[CrazyC83]

19 pages? For something at least 2 or 3 days from maybe being a depression? Yikes.

Last time i checked this is the place for discussions on 92L correct?

I don't have a problem, its just funny that there has been more discussion on this than Dean today.

There are about 30 threads on Dean though, and only one thread on this...

[storms in NC]

storms in NC...which front? The one mentioned for Saturday? Even with that possible front, I see the ridge building.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRADE INTO ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TURN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY AND POTENTIALLY ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
TIMING AND EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
RUN IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT AND THE NEW GFS IS THE
SLOWEST...COMPLETELY OPPOSITE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ETA
ENSEMBLE (SREF) MEAN AND THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A COMPROMISE ON TIMING AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST.

[PTrackerLA]

19 pages? For something at least 2 or 3 days from maybe being a depression? Yikes.

Last time i checked this is the place for discussions on 92L correct?

I don't have a problem, its just funny that there has been more discussion on this than Dean today.

Well like someone said earlier, Dean is pretty much locked into it's path. There's no threat to the US anymore, unlike with 92L. There have been THOUSANDS of posts on Dean and frankly, I'm tired of talking about it!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dean is doing what he has for the last 48 hours. Stay pretty much the same, and go through EWRC after EWRC. This on the other hand could very will turn westward...Do I think it will develop, that is very low be the looks of this thing. But if you look there is a area of turning. So its something to watch.