CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Tireman4]

My thoughts and prayers go out to them

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks to me on the visible loop that Dean is moving slightly north of due west now.

Visible loop

Also my thoughts and prayers are with the people of Yucatan!

[marcane_1973]

In my opinion looking at the latest visible satellite Dean does not look like a Cat5. Dean looks like a 145-150 very strong good looking Cat4. I honestly think Dean looked better before he reached Jamaica when he peaked at 918(I think it was???)with alot better looking eye. Ever since that point he has been having trouble getting his eyewall back to where it was and has never looked as good in my opinion. Dean has had a concentric eyewall for a long time. If he has had only one eyewall present in those times it didn't last long and when he did it never cleared out and looked spectacular like most of the majors that we have seen in the last 5 years. I just don't think Mr. Dean is cut out to be a 5. He just wishes he was his cousins Katrina and Rita.

[Stormtrack03]

879
UZNT13 KNHC 201942
XXAA 70197 99181 70837 04583 99918 27211 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85680 23007 23524 70368 19009 25009 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =
XXBB 70198 99181 70837 04583 00918 27211 11850 23007 22814 22633
33757 19020 44718 19450 55704 20220 66697 18000
21212 00918 ///// 11894 22022 22850 23524 33697 25008
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF303 1404A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08365W 1926 LST WND 237 MBL WND 22022 AEV 0000
0 DLM WND 23519 894722 =

[CrazyC83]

In my opinion looking at the latest visible satellite Dean does not look like a Cat5. Dean looks like a 145-150 very strong good looking Cat4. I honestly think Dean looked better before he reached Jamaica when he peaked at 918(I think it was???)with alot better looking eye. Ever since that point he has been having trouble getting his eyewall back to where it was and has never looked as good in my opinion. Dean has had a concentric eyewall for a long time. If he has had only one eyewall present in those times it didn't last long and when he did it never cleared out and looked spectacular like most of the majors that we have seen in the last 5 years. I just don't think Mr. Dean is cut out to be a 5. He just wishes he was his cousins Katrina and Rita.

I think when the pressure was 918, the winds were actually well below the peak - maybe 115 kt maximum, and had come up from 110 kt...the TCR peak intensity I am guessing will be 135 kt (which is his current intensity right now I think as well).

[Typhoon_Willie]

Unfortunately from a damage point of view Dean will be very much like his cousins Wilma and Rita!

[tolakram]

The difference between an upper cat4 and cat5 is 1 mph.

We really need a better scale, something more sliding instead of stepping.

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and
NWS products.

Advisory 082007

Today Major Hurricane Dean Has maintained Category 4 strength and may become a Category 5 before landfall in the Yucatan.



Western Caribbean...Category 4 Major Hurricane Dean. Winds are only 6 mph below Category 5 status and are increasing. Dean is still moving W, but may pick up a small northerly component. The Yucatan Peninsula is next in the line of fire by Dean. Those in the southerly end of the Yucatan, on the eastern coast of mainland Mexico, and in coastal areas of northern Belize should be preparing for preparing to evacuate or in the process of. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the west and east sides of the Yucatan, Belize, and the Cayman islands. The Cayman Islands Warnigh should be discontinued by tonight. If you are in this warning other than the Cayman, you should be expecting 10-15' of storm surge near the landfall of Dean and smaller surges farther from Dean. You should expect 6-9" of rain near the path of Dean and 3-6" elsewhere in the Yucatan and Belize. You should expect very Intense winds along the path of Dean. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect on the northern coast of the Yucatan and the SE coast of Cuba. The TS Warning for Cuba should be dropped as well as the Tropical Storm Watch for the SW coast of Cuba. Those in these areas should expect strong winds with heavy rain. Major Hurricane Dean will be making landfall near Chetumal of the Mexico/Belize border as a very intense Category 5 Major Hurricane in the early morning hours of tomorrow. Hurricane Dean, maybe Major Hurricane Dean will make landfall near Tampico or points southward Wednesday between 10-4 pm cst.

Take extreme caution when dealing with Dean!

Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789
_____________________________________________________________________________
I had this quickly translated online for those in Mexico and Belize.

El poste siguiente no es un pronóstico oficial y no debe ser utilizado como tan. No es aprobado por ninguna institución profesionales ni storm2k.org. Para la información oficial, se refiere por favor al NHC y NWS productos.

Consultor 082007

El Decano hoy Mayor del Huracán ha mantenido la Categoría 4 fuerza y puede llegar a ser una Categoría 5 antes de recalada en el Yucatán.

Caribe occidental. ..Category 4 Decano Mayor de Huracán. Los vientos son sólo 6 kph debajo de la Categoría 5 posición y aumentan. El decano mueve todavía W, pero puede recoger un pequeño componente septentrional. La Península de Yucatán es próxima en la línea de tiro por Decano. Esos en el fin de sur del Yucatán, en la costa oriental de continente México, y en áreas costeras de Belice septentrional debe estar preparando para preparar para evacuar o en el proceso de. Las Advertencias del huracán tienen vigencia para el oeste y lados orientales del Yucatán, de Belice, y de las islas de caimán. El Warnigh de Islas de caimán debe ser discontinuado por esta noche. Si usted está en esta advertencia de otra manera que el caimán, usted debe estar esperando 10-15' de oleada de tempestad cerca de la recalada de Decano y oleadas más pequeñas más lejano del Decano. Usted debe esperar 6-9" de la lluvia cerca del sendero de Decano y 3-6" en otra parte en el Yucatán y Belice. Usted debe esperar vientos muy Intensos a lo largo del camino de Decano. Las Advertencias tropicales de la Tempestad tienen vigencia en la costa septentrional del Yucatán y la costa sudeste de Cuba. Las T que Advierten para Cuba deben ser dejadas caer así como el Reloj Tropical de la Tempestad para la costa de SW de Cuba. Esos en estas áreas deben esperar vientos fuertes con aguacero recio. El Decano mayor del Huracán estará haciendo recalada Chetumal cercano de la frontera de México/Belice como una Categoría muy intensa 5 Huracán Mayor en las horas tempranas de la mañana de mañana. El Decano del huracán, Decano quizá Mayor de Huracán hará recalada Tampico cercano o señala hacia el sur el miércoles entre 10-4 p.m. cst.

¡Tome el cuidado extremo cuando tratando con Decano!

Pronosticador para amateurs Jonathan-Fact789

[Sanibel]

Belize message board humming with preparation communications. First band blowing heavy sideways rain:


http://ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/ubb/postlist/Board/2

[Yankeegirl]

I feel terrible for those in the resort areas of Mexico that couldn't get out... We just went to Cancun last month and I am sure glad we went then... They just finished rebuilding and remodeling all their resorts from the last storm they had!!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well Like I mentioned a couple of post ago...From a damage point of view 1 mph is not going to make that much of a differemce.

[Brent]

I feel terrible for those in the resort areas of Mexico that couldn't get out... We just went to Cancun last month and I am sure glad we went then... They just finished rebuilding and remodeling all their resorts from the last storm they had!!

Looks like Cancun and Cozumel will miss most of the storm and certainly the core of strong winds.

[cycloneye]

http://www.cozumel-hotels.net/webcam/

Cozumel Web Cams.

[tolakram]

[mempho]

Just in...918 MB

[Stormtrack03]

508
URNT12 KNHC 201945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/192320Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
083 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2399 M
D. 120 KTS
E. 060 DEG 15 NM
F. 151 DEG 151 KTS
G. 060 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3037 M
J. 19 C/ 3043 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03/1 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 15
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1918Z

[Acral]

More importantly, imo, is the size of the wind field. Many times people follow the "line" (which the NHC has abolished) and do not realize that dangerous surge and winds can be well outside of landfall. Take the wind damage in Pensacola after Ivan made landfall in Gulf Shores. Or wind damage in EVERGREEN of all places after Ivan moved inland.

[Sanibel]

It's going well far south of Cancun.

Right down the NHC track. (Building statue now for GFS!)


918 - Can't keep from category 5 now.

[Innotech]

I guess we will see what a Cat 5 does to a town.

[Solaris]

NE quadrant:
151 kt