Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[Special K]

Does anyone have a rough ETA of arrival in South Florida area if models hold up?

Special K
Palm Beach Gardens, Floria

[Dynamic]

...bears watching...

You mean like these bears?

Or more like these?

Hey guys, I have to make a question. Please excuse my ignorance but I'm not familiarized with this. When you said "is bear watching" for all those systems in their very first development steps, what this mean? What is the sense behind this phrase?

Thanks!

[destruction92]

From NWS Melbourne AFD:

FRI-SUN...FCST WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISORGANIZED T-WAVE BTWN 50W-60W. ATTM...MID-RANGE HPC/NHC
COORDINATED FCST BRINGS A SPOT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FRI-SAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT... WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THRU THIS TIME FRAME.

Once again, even if 92L develops and affects Florida, it should stay well north of SE Florida.

[gatorcane]

Also click on this link which shows there is a clear mid-level rotation in that area that I said above...

something is definitely forming:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[tolakram]

I think a low has formed, according to the text of the TCFA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I can see rotation below the cirrus, I think anyway.

[windstorm99]

92L Intensity...

[gatorcane]

From NWS Melbourne AFD:

FRI-SUN...FCST WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISORGANIZED T-WAVE BTWN 50W-60W. ATTM...MID-RANGE HPC/NHC
COORDINATED FCST BRINGS A SPOT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FRI-SAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT... WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THRU THIS TIME FRAME.

Once again, even if 92L develops and affects Florida, it should stay well north of SE Florida.

Nope...with a ridge building to the north a W to WSW track for a couple of days is very possible...many storms have done this: Katrina, Andrew, Jeanne, etc.

[Blown Away]

From NWS Melbourne AFD:

FRI-SUN...FCST WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISORGANIZED T-WAVE BTWN 50W-60W. ATTM...MID-RANGE HPC/NHC
COORDINATED FCST BRINGS A SPOT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FRI-SAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT... WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THRU THIS TIME FRAME.

Maybe an undeveloped low across Central FL. Named systems landfalling from the East between Vero Beach through Georgia are very rare. I'll error on no developed system coming to FL unless it happens S of Vero Beach. It has and can happen, but I will always bet on climatology when it comes to landfalls between Vero and Georgia. JMHO

[Jevo]

Bears (fans) watching 92L

[Canelaw99]

I've seen the current SST map, but where might I find the one that shows the pressure and winds that could be sustained by the water? Thanks!

[gatorcane]

92L Intensity...

wow SHIPS brings it to 75K already -- not a good sign

[RL3AO]

I don't think the models intensified Dean that quickly when it first became an invest.

[ronjon]

Here is the 7 day forecast from HCP-TPC coordinated track of 92L. Again, this 5-7 days out so I wouldn't focus on the exact placement of the low whether it's central or south FL.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This needs to be watched closely. Gonna be windy and rainy in the next
week...possibly.

[x-y-no]

SHIPs intensity guidance pretty much assumes development of a closed circulation (which we don't have yet) ... so take than more as what the potential is if development does occur.

[mel38]

floater 2 pic of remmnants of erin?

[ronjon]

I don't think the models intensified Dean that quickly when it first became an invest.

Much warmer water and better environment in the western Atlantic ocean versus the eastern Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Looks like convection is starting to blow up near where I think the center is forming...that blob to the SE of this area is just feeding into the center just off to the NW......

folks it does now appear to be organizing...slowly...but it is

[windstorm99]

[gatorcane]

Okay looking at windstorm's graphic I think the center is forming in the square between 25 and 20N and 55 and 60W