CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[sevenleft]

That was last night. Today there has been no RECON investigating Dean.

You are incorrect.

[Ixolib]

Yep, I'll agree it looks perhaps to be a tad north of the forecast points. But I too would hate to become known as a wobble-watcher....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html

[x-y-no]

That was last night. Today there has been no RECON investigating Dean.

Nope recon is in there now:

A. 20/17:39:20Z

[HURAKAN]

That was last night. Today there has been no RECON investigating Dean.

You are incorrect.

Now I see. But we are not receiving any RECON info?

We will have to ask Proenza what is happening.

[btangy]

For a really cool aliasing effect, check out the mesovortices in the eye of Dean in the zoomed visible satellite loop on the RAMSDIS website (http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rms ... pical.html). The sampling rate of the satellite creates an illusion that the mesovortices are rotating clockwise about the center like you sometimes see when you look at the spokes on a tire or the blades of a helicopter.

[Scorpion]

LOL anyone see the latest HWRF?

[senorpepr]

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 14
Flight ID: AF303
Observation Number: 11 Google Maps Dropsonde Position -- Click Here
Time: 1800Z
Latitude: 17.8°N
Longitude: 82.9°W
Location: 262 mi N of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Surface: 968 mb; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 78°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 1325 ft; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 73°F; SSW (195°) @ 131 mph
850mb height: 3737 ft; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 64°F; SSW (205°) @ 131 mph
700mb height: 9154 ft; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: N/A°F; SW (215°) @ 126 mph
EYEWALL 135 SPL 1792N08290W 1747 LST WND 014 MBL WND 19112
AEV 00000 DLM WND 20610 967716 WL150 18105 089 =

968mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
967mb winds: S (180°) @ 113 mph
959mb winds: S (180°) @ 123 mph
948mb winds: S (180°) @ 124 mph
940mb winds: S (190°) @ 137 mph
933mb winds: S (190°) @ 131 mph
900mb winds: SSW (205°) @ 135 mph
865mb winds: SSW (205°) @ 127 mph
850mb winds: SSW (205°) @ 131 mph
698mb winds: SW (215°) @ 124 mph

[RL3AO]

LOL anyone see the latest HWRF?

Watch out Tip!

[wxwatcher91]

come on! only 3.92hPa lower needed to beat Tip!!!

[Stratosphere747]

Dean has taken a fairly good shift to the WNW for a bit.

[WxGuy1]

2pm update NHC reiterates that winds have not increased...they remain 150mph. I disagree and believe this is a 160+mph cat 5.

Without the HDOBs... they weren't going to upgrade it.

When I see a spade, I call it a spade.

Why upgrade it? The only data we have for such are satellite data. Personally, I continue to say that the satellite appearance of Dean is certainly not the most impressive I've seen for a storm of Dean's strength. Continuing the theme through the past 3-4 days, cloud tops are NOT terribly cold. Sure, there's a decent partial ring of temps colder than -60C, but it's still partially-complete. This is NOTHING like other Cat 5s of the past, many of which had a SOLID ring of temps colder than -70C (with embedded areas colder than -80C). The symmetry has improved over the past 24 hours, with the western hemisphere of the storm looking considerably better.

This is NOT to say that I don't think it won't become a Cat 5, or to say that recon won't find 150-155kt winds at flight-level. I'm just saying that I strongly disagree with your assessment that it's a Cat 5 based solely on satellite presentation. It's not like the NHC folks go to lunch for hours when they don't have new recon data -- they analyze the conditions constantly, with levels of knowledge beyond 99.5% of the folks on this board (yes, I include myself in that too!). This is not slamming anyone (since I'd be slamming myself in the process), but let's give the NHC credit when it's due (and the 120-day forecast from last Wednesday verified to within 75 miles!). We anticipate that Dean will continue to strengthen, so why not wait until we have more evidence that it is a Cat 5 now? They'll put out a special advisory if the recon finds winds to support a Cat 5, IMO.

Again, to reiterate, the 90% flight-level to surface reduction is an ESTIMATE at best. Other studies have found that the reduction is actually more lik 65-75%, and it can vary drastically from storm-to-storm and within different parts of the same storm. It's highly like that the 90% reduction is more of an overestimation than an underestimation. So, even if recon finds flight-level winds of 155kts does not actually mean that the NHC is being foolish by staying with Cat 4 winds (<135kts). If the NHC seems fit, they could keep Dean at 135kt surface wind estimate even with 160kts at flight level if other data don't support >135kt surface winds (such as with the use of SFMR data, dropsonde data, etc).

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[tallywx]

Ground zero: Majahual, Mexico:





Prayers for one of the most scenic and environmentally-conscientious tourism areas in all of the Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

the HWRF also had the pressure below 900mb now... it is already far too low

[miamicanes177]

Why upgrade it? The only data we have for such are satellite data. Personally, I continue to say that the satellite appearance of Dean is certainly not the most impressive I've seen for a storm of Dean's strength. Continuing the theme through the past 3-4 days, cloud tops are NOT terribly cold. Sure, there's a decent partial ring of temps colder than -60C, but it's still partially-complete. This is NOTHING like other Cat 5s of the past, many of which had a SOLID ring of temps colder than -70C (with embedded areas colder than -80C). The symmetry has improved over the past 24 hours, with the western hemisphere of the storm looking considerably better.

This is NOT to say that I don't think it won't become a Cat 5, or to say that recon won't find 150-155kt winds at flight-level. I'm just saying that I strongly disagree with your assessment that it's a Cat 5 based solely on satellite presentation.

Winds reached 150mph 12 hours ago at 1am. In the last 12 hours, the presentation of Dean has improved dramatically. Therefore, I believe Dean's winds have increased at least 6mph since the 2am advisory.

[wxmann_91]

The eye has cooled back down and the VIS presentation is slightly less than what it was one hour ago. Not sure this will make Cat 5.

[HURAKAN]

149
URNT11 KNHC 201820
97779 17034 20191 84618 30500 06053 08079 /3136
RMK AF303 1404A DEAN OB 06
SWS = 028KTS

[Javlin]

Dean has taken a fairly good shift to the WNW for a bit.

Anyone notice that it looks like the ULL has stalled.Last set of numbers I did on Dean was 18.85mph for the last 7hrs and probably just a+.5-1mph needed for angle adjustment.I need some help on this also looking at the ATL WV loop I would say the high behind Dean is SE-NW? up towards the Pan FL up to NC-VA border and out to the ATL?tring to learn how to read this stuff.And one other thing can a Cane go under an ULL?Kevin

[tallywx]

Winds reached 150mph 12 hours ago at 1am. In the last 12 hours, the presentation of Dean has improved dramatically. Therefore, I believe Dean's winds have increased at least 6mph since the 2am advisory.

Presentation only serves as a very imperfect proxy to cold, hard data, which at this time (a recon. fix a mere hour ago) shows that Dean has not yet strengthened to a cat 5. If we went off of satellite presentation alone, Hurricane Charley would've been a high-end cat 2 when it slammed into Punta Gorda (which it was not), and Hurricane Floyd would've been a strong cat 5 when it hit Eleuthera (which it was not).

[Tireman4]

Crazy question. Do you think that the eventual remenants of Dean will or could make its way back into Texas? (Meaning rains and what not) Or will the various weather features (High, Low or anything else) keep it from going that way.