Models are in agreement on panhandle as bulls eye from carib

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 9:14 am

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/models/mainmodel.htm

The caribbean disturbance according to some models will move to the EGOM and then up to the panhandle of Florida and some have a low pressure with it but not deepens that low so now let's follow the next runs to see what they show but rain AGAIN is the best bet for the west florida coast and the panhandle in the comming days.

But I would want to see models like the UKMET showing this too but so far it not shows this system and that is a good model so let's wait for more data to see what the models will say on this disturbance.

#2 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 9:28 am

Not,not,not good news. Rain in the forecast is not what they need.

Amanzi · #3 Postby **Amanzi** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 9:40 am

Oh no.. that really is BAD news for the folks on the west coast (I sure could use a little more here on the east coast!) The absolute last thing they need is more rain..

Colin · #4 Postby **Colin** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:03 pm

Yeah, this is bad... they do NOT need any more rain! :o :o Wonder if this will then move up the East Coast? Possible... Any input on this? This was discussed a bit before in the Extended Model topic.

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 1:14 pm

Right, Bron. Leesburg, Florida [I am about 10 miles northwest of Leesburg] has received over 11 inches of rain so far this month. The rain did come down pretty heavy the last few days, (with the exception of yesterday, of course).

It seems to me that east coastal Florida has seen less than the interior the state and western Florida of course getting the terrible flooding.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 1:27 pm

Yeah, this is bad... they do NOT need any more rain! Wonder if this will then move up the East Coast? Possible... Any input on this? This was discussed a bit before in the Extended Model topic.

Low moving NE along the trough...

GulfBreezer · #7 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 1:56 pm

OMILORDY!! We have had 15 inches of rain this month already!! I know that Central Florida has had more than that! WHat kind of time frame are we talking here?

Sandi

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 2:02 pm

Based on the latest GFS run, the wave will increase the rain chances for FL in 72 hours. By day 4, the northern edge of the wave will move over the panhandlel. By day 5, rain chances increase as far north as TN, with a ton of moisture still in the Gulf. After day 5 there is a large margin of error.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 2:44 pm

Sandi, as I said above, Leesburg (about 10 miles to my southeast) has "only" had just about 12" of rain for the month. Not 15" in the last week.

It is western Florida (of course) that has seen 20"+ of rain in the last week.

JetMaxx · #10 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:11 pm

That progged precip amount map is frightening....

In this area just west of Atlanta, I've recorded 13.89" of rainfall in June...and a whopping 23.5" since May 1st (normal is more like 8" for May & June combined)...

If that forecast verifies...we could see some major league flooding from Georgia into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.....it bears close watching by everyone.

PW

Amanzi · #11 Postby **Amanzi** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:25 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Right, Bron. Leesburg, Florida [I am about 10 miles northwest of Leesburg] has received over 11 inches of rain so far this month. The rain did come down pretty heavy the last few days, (with the exception of yesterday, of course).

It seems to me that east coastal Florida has seen less than the interior the state and western Florida of course getting the terrible flooding.

Well Tom according to the local paper (which takes it's rain totals from the county just to my south, which has experienced more rain than I have for sure) our portion of the state has recieved 6.06" so far this month thats just shy of half of what leesburg has totalled... things are drying out very fast here, we actually need some rain. Well I just hope the areas that dont need it DONT get it and we do!

#12 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:33 pm

Is this looking to develop into an organized system or is it just a general moisture feed?

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:34 pm

Is this looking to develop into an organized system or is it just a general moisture feed?

Development is not expected at this time...but the latest satellite images are interesting.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:35 pm

5 Day SLP and Precip Forecast Loop...

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html

#15 Postby **wx247** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:40 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:
Is this looking to develop into an organized system or is it just a general moisture feed?

Development is not expected at this time...but the latest satellite images are interesting.

I saw that on TWC about an hour ago. I was just curious as to what was expected.

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 3:50 pm

Looking at the latest visible loop, there may be a very weak low level circulation developing near 17N 82W. However, the frontal boundary to the north is surpressing outflow, and is also inducing some 30 knot shear over the area. This type of pattern is not conducive for any significant strengthening. But it does look to be a big rain event for Florida, unfortunately.

#17 Postby **Pileus** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 6:24 pm

Do the models keep it just west of the appalachins, along the rim, or in
the piedmont just east of the mtns ? I live close to Charlotte in the
piedmont and the rivers are still waaaaay out of the banks around here.

Stormsfury · #18 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jun 25, 2003 6:47 pm

Whether the system develops or not tropically may be a mute point ATT, since either way, copious amounts of rain are possible if the models ... When I did the mid-range outlook a few days ago, the reason I did so was the fact that not all the models, but more than one indicated such a threat in the medium range, and I thought it worth posting ...

I just got home and haven't had time to look at any information just yet, but expect a full discussion later tonight ...

Models are in agreement on panhandle as bulls eye from carib

Models are in agreement on panhandle as bulls eye from carib

movement???

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