CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[wxmann_91]

Models are useless now. Look at trends. The eye is clearing, but it's running out of time (<18 hr left till landfall).

BTW, the size of a hurricane does not dictate its maximum potential intensity.

[HURAKAN]

No chance at Wilma and I don't think it has much of a chance at 900mb...its too big now.

Tell that to ST Tip. The biggest cyclone in history with the lowest pressure in history!!!

[RL3AO]

No chance at Wilma and I don't think it has much of a chance at 900mb...its too big now.

Tell that to ST Tip. The biggest cyclone in history with the lowest pressure in history!!!

But we don't know if that was afterwards or not. Wilma only had hurricane force winds go out 15 miles at peak strength.

[PhillyWX]

Does someone know the mirror site for the Cancun radar? Those servers got real slow during Wilma and Emily.

That's a good question. I used to have it bookmarked but lost it.

I only have the standard one.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

The radar site is already down.

[Tireman4]

What a monster.

I haven't been able to check-in much over the last few days, but thank God Texas was able to dodge this one. I feel for our friends down in Mexico, the Yucatan certainly doesn't need another hit. Still a long season ahead...

I agree. Like Max Mayfield stated, this is the second inning of a nine inning game. We have aways to go. Hopefully it will not even be close to being as active as 2005.

[HURAKAN]

[x-y-no]

044
URNT15 KNHC 201749
AF303 1404A DEAN HDOB 21 20070820
173730 1805N 08313W 6964 02515 9251 +184 +158 039063 074 105 003 03
173800 1804N 08312W 6969 02491 9237 +180 +171 058040 045 051 006 03
173830 1803N 08310W 6964 02487 9990 +171 +999 064029 032 032 006 05
173900 1801N 08310W 6968 02474 9226 +174 +174 051014 019 031 007 05
173930 1800N 08308W 6967 02480 9990 +173 +999 287005 010 021 006 05
174000 1758N 08307W 6967 02487 9990 +169 +999 253019 027 032 006 01
174030 1757N 08305W 6969 02506 9990 +165 +999 240036 041 046 007 01
174100 1756N 08304W 6969 02537 9990 +159 +999 232057 063 063 009 01
174130 1755N 08302W 6960 02588 9990 +137 +999 224074 087 105 011 05
174200 1754N 08301W 6951 02648 9990 +112 +999 222105 109 999 999 05
174230 1753N 08301W 6977 02666 9990 +101 +999 225115 120 122 033 05
174300 1752N 08300W 6960 02747 9990 +095 +999 224118 123 113 037 01
174330 1751N 08259W 6975 02788 9990 +093 +999 221111 117 099 030 05
174400 1750N 08258W 6957 02847 9990 +083 +999 214107 109 096 014 05
174430 1749N 08257W 6968 02862 9990 +070 +999 213106 109 083 023 05
174500 1748N 08256W 6964 02895 9990 +080 +999 213100 101 077 020 05
174530 1747N 08255W 6967 02917 9990 +095 +999 211094 096 076 024 01
174600 1746N 08254W 6966 02936 9990 +098 +999 211087 090 071 009 01
174630 1745N 08253W 6963 02956 9990 +096 +999 209084 084 067 008 01
174700 1744N 08251W 6965 02969 9990 +091 +999 207082 083 065 008 01
$$

[Chacor]

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES.

[WxGuy1]

So am I the last holdout that still thinks this has a good chance at a US landfall? I'm still saying just N. of Brnsville to S. or Corpus. I'll stick to it till the weakness clears out of the gulf completely...

Probably, but I suppose it depends upon what you mean by "Good". The model consensus has been very good through the past 4 days with a final landfall in Mexico, and it's better that the GFDL came in line with all other models this past weekend in indicating a Mexico final landfall.

Personally, I'd put a Texas landfall at ~10%, with a 90% probability of a Mexico landfall. It's still possible that we'll see a landfall between BRO and CRP, but I find it quite unlikely.

[miamicanes177]

2pm update NHC reiterates that winds have not increased...they remain 150mph. I disagree and believe this is a 160+mph cat 5.

[jacindc]

Without turning into a wobble watcher, I have to say that it looks like Dean might miss the next forecast point to the north:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

The center of the eye isn't far from being at the same latitude now as that next point.

[Chacor]

2pm update NHC reiterates that winds have not increased...they remain 150mph. I disagree and believe this is a 160+mph cat 5.

Without the HDOBs... they weren't going to upgrade it.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Frank2]

Imagine how we felt when learning that Hurricane Andrew was at the very same intensity (as Dean is at this hour), on the afternoon of August 23, 1992, during Andrew's approach to Miami - not a feeling that anyone would want in their lifetime...

I remember looking east, and, could see the western edge of the cirrus sheild - you just knew that your life was about to take an unexpected turn...

[miamicanes177]

2pm update NHC reiterates that winds have not increased...they remain 150mph. I disagree and believe this is a 160+mph cat 5.

Without the HDOBs... they weren't going to upgrade it.

When I see a spade, I call it a spade.

[Solaris]

still cat-4

555
URNT12 KNHC 201801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/17:39:20Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
083 deg 09 min W
C. NA mb 2442 m
D. 123 kt
E. 307 deg 11 nm
F. 031 deg 140 kt
G. 308 deg 010 nm
H. 924 mb
I. 9 C/ 3039 m
J. 19 C/ 3046 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 1404A DEAN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 140 KT NW QUAD 17:36:00 Z

[sevenleft]

2pm update NHC reiterates that winds have not increased...they remain 150mph. I disagree and believe this is a 160+mph cat 5.

Without the HDOBs... they weren't going to upgrade it.

How are you gonna disagree with recon data? Thus far, 140KT in the NW quad...and thats 20 knots short of a Cat 5.

[HURAKAN]

2pm update NHC reiterates that winds have not increased...they remain 150mph. I disagree and believe this is a 160+mph cat 5.

Without the HDOBs... they weren't going to upgrade it.

How are you gonna disagree with recon data? Thus far, 140KT in the NW quad...and thats 20 knots short of a Cat 5.

That was last night. Today there has been no RECON investigating Dean.

[miamicanes177]

000
URNT12 KNHC 201801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/17:39:20Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
083 deg 09 min W
C. NA mb 2442 m
D. 123 kt
E. 307 deg 11 nm
F. 031 deg 140 kt
G. 308 deg 010 nm
H. 924 mb
I. 9 C/ 3039 m
J. 19 C/ 3046 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF303 1404A DEAN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 140 KT NW QUAD 17:36:00 Z

[Solaris]

no, it's the most recent data