CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[wxmann_91]

Eye is clearing out. Would not be surprised to see Cat 5 on next recon pass. Cloud tops have weakened somewhat though.

[HURAKAN]

That's to be scared of.

[hiflyer]

GCM 1553 201555Z 10025G33KT 8000 -RA BKN010 OVC070 28/26 Q1005
KIN 1607 NIL
KIN 1613 201600Z 13023KT 9999 FEW020 BKN200 29/23 Q1012
KIN 1615 COR 201600Z E13023KT 9999 FEW020 BKN200 29/23 Q1012
MIA 1555 201553Z 08015G23KT 10SM BKN030 BKN300 31/23 A3006 RMK
AO2 SLP180 T03110228 $
CUN 1551 201546Z 06013KT 7SM BKN018TCU BKN250 30/24 A2989 RMK 8
/208
SDQ 1554 201600Z 09006KT 9999 BKN022 30/25 Q1014

[secretforecaster]

Tampico has more 300K, the Veracruz metro area has 800K

to be honest, I could not care less about tourism... I care about the number of people that this will actually impact and that number is going to be high. Also, read up on what Hurricane Diana in 1990 did to this area... at 85KT, it was far more deadly than Wilma and also destroyed 75K homes

Derek's point about the population is well taken. Veracruz (about 19.2) seems too far south
to take a big hit from Dean. Tuxpan and Tampico are another matter. Hopefully, by this time it will be Cat2 or less.

.


Just to update your information , Tampico has over 500K. We are following the track of Dean very closely at this time goverment has started meetings in order to prepare shelters. The area between Tampico - Tuxpan includes three important cities, the rest of it are rural areas.

Stay safe Cyberantonio!!!

[Windspeed]

Eye is clearing out. Would not be surprised to see Cat 5 on next recon pass. Cloud tops have weakened somewhat though.

Cloud tops have weakened? If anything, the CDO is becoming its most intense since Dean has existed. The eye is continuing to clear out. If you're looking at the IR AVN, a large band -80ºC tops pushing up on the tropopause. Recon will find a Cat 5.

[Sanibel]

Eye tracking towards Majahual, Mexico, a small town on the coast around 25 miles northeast of state capital Chetumal. If it takes Dean on the nose it should be decimated.

[wxmann_91]

Eye is clearing out. Would not be surprised to see Cat 5 on next recon pass. Cloud tops have weakened somewhat though.

Cloud tops have weakened? If anything, the CDO is becoming its most intense since Dean has existed. The eye is continuing to clear out. If you're looking at the IR AVN, a large band -80ºC tops pushing up on the tropopause. Recon will find a Cat 5.

The ring of dark reds has eroded a bit on the southern side, that's what I was referring to. I'm thinking it will find a Cat 5 too.

[wxfollower]

Will this thing go further south and hit Guatemala? My dad retired 4 years ago in Guatemala and just built a house down there. Unfortunately, it was built to withstand only rain and some wind, but no strong winds. Most of Belize and the border of Guatemala is mostly small towns that will get devastated, since most of the builldings are made of weak wood and aluminum siding. I have been there and while its pretty they will see catastrophic damage if it decides to go there.

[richtrav]

Antonio

Good luck down there, we'll be hoping and praying for all of you. I love Tampico, was there a week ago, and would hate to see it devastated. I'm glad it doesn't look like it's coming here to South Texas and hope it stays away from all the cities on the western Gulf.

[wxmann_91]

This will likely not hit Guatemala. Some flooding though is possible with the feeder bands. I don't think it will be like Gilbert as Derek stated, just b/c the feederbands are less spread out than with Gilbert.

FWIW, Dean has been heading due west since dawn. Extrapolation places landfall area near Chetumal/extreme northern Belize.

[Sanibel]

Will this thing go further south and hit Guatamala?

My opinion is not endorsed by Storm2k:


The official track has been almost dead-on for most of Dean's path. I would say even very northern Guatemala should experience only hurricane gusts. You could see heavy rain however, but they can probably handle that within reason. Southern Guatemala should feel only minor winds from this. Will it go south into Guatemala? - almost definitely not if the prediction performs as it has.

[tolakram]

So am I the last holdout that still thinks this has a good chance at a US landfall? I'm still saying just N. of Brnsville to S. or Corpus. I'll stick to it till the weakness clears out of the gulf completely...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It's not even going to re-enter the gulf without some kind of turn to the north. I think you're ignoring something.

[HURAKAN]

If this is not a Cat. 5, then the Cat. 4 range must have been extended!!!

[Stratosphere747]

Can of hard to believe that in a few hours we may have a confirmed cat 5. Despite the last few years, historically these are simply unique.

[Derek Ortt]

the when the eye passes Guatemala to the north is when the flooding will begin

the inflow shape is going to be causing inflow from the pacific, which will cause flooding

[HURAKAN]

Latest.

[dtrain44]

Have there been any storm surge predictions from the NHC or others yet or are we still too far from landfall?

[PerryW]

1615z Dvorak rating is near T-7.0. That equates out to estimated sustained winds of 161 mph (140 kts).

[Ptarmigan]

I think Dean is already a Category 5 hurricane as of right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is mother nature at her finest folks..