CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

This is the area that the NHC has in the track as the landfall point.It is not a dense populated area.

http://www.akumaltravel.com/rivmaya/beyond.htm

Esta es el area donde el Centro de Huracanes tiene en su trajectoria para azote directo.No es un area muy poblada.

Cozumel,parece que el area donde tu estas no va a recibir el azote directo pero much lluvia y vientos de tormenta tropical van a affectar esa area.

Cozumel,it looks like the area that you are will not be in the path of the eye,but you will get Tropical Storm force winds and plenty of rain in bands.

[tallywx]

This area is an absolute jewel for eco-tourism or just "get-away-from-it-all" tropical vacation in close proximity to the U.S. Looks like the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Preserve (1.6 million acres of preserved coastal wilderness) will get the brutal NE quad. The good news is that it's sparsely populated. The bad news is that this could be a repeat of the ecological and habitat destruction we saw in the Francis Marion Forest in SC that got the brunt of Hugo's wrath.

I was just planning on making an excursion down to this place for an upcoming weekend. Guess I'll have to put those plans on hold to give them time to recover. I really need to stop making plans to go to tropical destinations (my history: Caymans? Ivan hits; south part of Thailand? tsunami; Malvides? tsunami; Captiva Island? Hurricane Charley; Abacos? Hurricane Floyd. I'm basically batting .000 here for having tropical vacations realized).

[msbee]

I hope they evacuate any villagers who might be living there.

[flamingosun]

There is a wonderful little village right on the coast, by the name of Majahual.
Those who have taken cruises with a port of call at Costa Maya will be very familiar with it . . . perhaps recalling it as 'the little fishing village.'

Buildings on the main street are literally steps from the water's edge, with the street actually being beach sand.

[HURAKAN]

Eye begins to clear.

[tolakram]

A lot of reds showing up

['CaneFreak]

anyone see this????

AMSU estimates the central pressure is down to 907 with a 156 knot wind and fair confidence? Discuss away.....

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu//atl/44/intensity.txt

[lrak]

On the WV loop I see a tongue of moisture streaking North towards Florida, and the eye on the last few frames is looking WNW maybe? Will the high be strong enough behind the ULL? Also the ULL seems to be looking elongated. What will that do to the forecast more South or North?

Thanks

[Stratosphere747]

On the WV loop I see a tongue of moisture streaking North towards Florida, and the eye on the last few frames is looking WNW maybe? Will the high be strong enough behind the ULL? Also the ULL seems to be looking elongated. What will that do to the forecast more South or North?

Thanks

Westward young man!!

[HURAKAN]

For reference to the Parishes:

Western Jamaica:


Eastern Jamaica:

[dtrain44]

Is SHIPS serious about a 163 KT at 24 hours? That's the worst (as measured by winds) that I can remember. Not that it isn't bad enough now, but that's pretty horrible if that really materializes. If it's that strong at landfall, I don't know that its second landfall on the Mexican coast won't be worse than many are thinking......

I'd like to join in offering kudos to those posting in Spanish - mine is horrid but I know that many others must appreciate the information.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I hear that this Mean Dean thing could become a cat.5 by 11 this AM but either way it still become a Cat.5 storm but with that said any one here thinks it will go as high as 165mph winds gusts to 200????

[HURAKAN]

Better.

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97274

watch for severe flooding in guatemala, el salvador, and honduras from the feeder bands

[Lost in Belize]

Hi All,
The Belize Met Service has initiated the hurrincane warning system and residents of Belize City are in preparation. Banks, Port, etc are closing at noon. The Outlying islands are being evacuated, while sea conditions remain flat and calm. The Westerward track is causing a lot of alarm, and even though landfall is being estimated at Akumal, MX, that is very near to Northern Belize, so that Northen Part of the country, from the border to Belize City, is in full preparation mode. One of the biggest dangers of a hurricane passing that close North is flooding. Much is Belize's coastline is low lying, and many rivers run off into this low coastline, with numerous villages dotted along the riverbanks. As the volume of rain passes across the peninsular, these rivers flood as the outflow runs to toward the sea. Belize City shelters are opening this afternoon, and anyone that can, are leaving to the Capital, Belmopan, or beyond to the Western Cayo District.

Belize standing by.

[lrak]

On the WV loop I see a tongue of moisture streaking North towards Florida, and the eye on the last few frames is looking WNW maybe? Will the high be strong enough behind the ULL? Also the ULL seems to be looking elongated. What will that do to the forecast more South or North?

Thanks

Westward young man!!

So CCTX can expect a super swell by the weekend

[lrak]

I swear that ULL is looking funny this morning

[mutley]

On the WV loop I see a tongue of moisture streaking North towards Florida, and the eye on the last few frames is looking WNW maybe? Will the high be strong enough behind the ULL? Also the ULL seems to be looking elongated. What will that do to the forecast more South or North?

Thanks

Westward young man!!

I think you're right. Even though I see the path north, look at the hefty push from the high at Dean's back. Westward ho.

[mgpetre]

So am I the last holdout that still thinks this has a good chance at a US landfall? I'm still saying just N. of Brnsville to S. or Corpus. I'll stick to it till the weakness clears out of the gulf completely...

[drezee]

243
URNT15 KNHC 201428
AF303 1404A DEAN HDOB 01 20070820
141730 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0172 +319 +242 360000 000 999 999 23
141800 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0170 +317 +244 360000 000 999 999 23
141830 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0171 +313 +244 360000 000 999 999 23
141900 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0173 +322 +249 360000 000 999 999 23
141930 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0173 +335 +245 360000 000 999 999 23
142000 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0176 +342 +236 360000 000 999 999 23
142030 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0175 +348 +239 360000 000 999 999 23
142100 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0175 +350 +240 360000 000 999 999 23
142130 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0173 +354 +240 360000 000 999 999 23
142200 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0174 +350 +239 360000 000 999 999 23
142230 3025N 08855W 0175 00000 0173 +335 +238 360000 000 999 999 23
142300 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0164 +313 +240 360000 000 999 999 23
142330 3025N 08855W 0179 00000 0169 +313 +241 360000 000 999 999 23
142400 3025N 08855W 0177 00000 0167 +324 +240 360000 000 999 999 23
142430 3025N 08855W 0176 00000 0170 +314 +237 360000 000 999 999 23
142500 3025N 08855W 0177 00000 0172 +325 +238 360000 000 999 999 23
142530 3025N 08855W 0177 00000 0173 +326 +235 360000 000 999 999 23
142600 3025N 08855W 0173 00009 0179 +297 +242 111006 008 999 999 03
142630 3024N 08856W 0030 00106 0148 +279 +240 129009 010 999 999 03
142700 3023N 08857W 9810 00316 0163 +258 +234 131009 010 021 083 03
$$