CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[mutley]

Yet another EWRC starting based on the northeast and east eye wall becoming warmer and a moat forming. I'm starting to think that this won't become a cat5.

Matt, could you post the image/graphic, or a link to it, that you use to determine this? It would help me to learn more about how to recognize when this is happening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 201124
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.6 79.8 270./18.0
6 18.0 81.6 282./17.2
12 18.5 83.5 285./19.6
18 18.8 85.5 279./19.2
24 19.2 87.4 283./17.8
30 19.8 89.4 286./19.5
36 20.2 91.3 281./18.8
42 20.5 93.0 279./15.6
48 20.8 94.7 282./16.5
54 21.3 96.4 286./17.0
60 21.5 97.9 275./14.2
66 21.3 99.1 263./11.2
72 21.0 101.1 261./19.0
78 21.6 103.2 286./20.3
84 22.1 105.9 282./25.8
90 23.1 107.0 313./13.6
96 24.5 108.3 316./18.2
102 25.5 109.2 318./13.6
108 26.2 109.8 319./ 8.4
114 27.0 110.2 330./ 8.5
120 27.7 110.5 343./ 7.2
126 28.4 110.7 342./ 7.8


Above is the 6z GFDL.I think that being Dean closer to land and with the strait foward track that is going,its over in terms of looking at them for changes in scenarios.

[drezee]

remember there is an uper low behing it as well. The ridge is in charge

[cycloneye]

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.


El gobierno de Belize ahora tiene un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical desde el sur de la ciudad de Belize hasta la frontera con Guatemala.

[cycloneye]

521
WTNT34 KNHC 201147
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 440
MILES...710 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. GRAND CAYMAN REPORTED WIND GUSTS

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 11
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 440
MILES...710 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[tolakram]

Morning pic, brightened up a bit.

[mutley]

AT 800 AM EDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Wow. Winds still very high. Question: If Dean is indeed going through an EWRC, and barring any other inhibiting factors, is there always an increase in strength after an EWRC?

[HURAKAN]

Passing well south of Grand Cayman to escape the worst.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, i think a Cat 5 is very possible, its sucks that i cant track this while im at work today we have no computer..... Anyways, i hope this stays very south of Cancun and hits a rural area along the yuctan. Prayers sent for the people in Cancun.

[msbee]

Cancun radar
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad%2dcanc.jpg

[msbee]

Cancun radar
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad%2dcanc.jpg

[Seele]

AT 800 AM EDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Wow. Winds still very high. Question: If Dean is indeed going through an EWRC, and barring any other inhibiting factors, is there always an increase in strength after an EWRC?

Always is a word that you can't use very often with tropical systems. There are many other factors that can have an effect on a storm. With Dean, if it can finally stabilize itself with one eyewall, almost everything would indicate it will strengthen though.

The thing I've been most impressed with is that during this 3 day long ERC it's maintained it's pressure and intensity very well. Recent IR shots appear to show the inner eyewall finally collapsing, but I've thought that a couple of times over the last day so we'll see...

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CARIB&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

[wxwatcher91]

Dean looks like it'll have a big eye once this EWRC is finished.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[hiflyer]

21 mph fwd speed at the 5 and 8am.....quite a good clip. Dean is in a hurry to get to the Yucatan and the track is great news for the Cayman's.

Looks like the coastal town of Majahual, south down the coast from Cancun and the Isle de Cozumel, is the current target for land fall. Area is called Costa Maya and appears to be sparsely populated with some eco hotels going up on the seaside. Good description of the area at
http://www.akumaltravel.com/rivmaya/beyond.htm

I had forgotten that Belize had that Kieth stalled offshore for over a day in 2000...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/KE ... phics.html

Re hurricane boats and such....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Halsey,_Jr.
read up about the typhoon he took a fleet into during WW2...including aircraft carriers..
That was not a successful voyage...grin.

[msbee]

Posted today on stormcarib.com pleas for help Jamaica
Press release from Jamaica.

DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM COMMUNITIES IN THE FOLLOWING PARISHES:

1. St. Thomas:
Extensive damage has been reported from several communities within the parish of St. Thomas. Significant wind damage to roofs, storm surges, flooding, collapsed structures, impassable roadways are among the many reports.

2. St. James:
The community of Coral Gardens is severely affected by wind damage.

3. Kingston and St. Andrew:
Severe wind damage and downed power lines in the Riverton city area. Also, a fallen tree caused the collapse of a residential building in the Chambers Lane Area of Liganea, St. Andrew.

4. Clarendon:
Flooding has been reported from the Denbigh gully.

5. Portland:
Several roadways in Port Antonio, Manchioneal, Mount James and Mount Airy in Buff Bay are blocked.

6. St. Mary:
Several roadways from Junction to Broadgate are impassable due to fallen trees.

7. St. Catherine:
Storm surges have been reported along the Port Henderson road in Portmore rendering the roadway impassable along with roof damage in the communities of Naggo Head and Newland. The Newland Road is also impassable due to a fallen utility pole. Additionally, sections of the roadway have been eroded in Hellshire due to storm surges and rising water levels have been reported in Old Harbour forcing the evacuation of several persons.


DAMAGE TO CRITICAL FACILITIES ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. Telecommunications
Cellular telephone lines are down in sections of Portland, St. Mary, and Clarendon and there is currently no communication link with the parish of St. Thomas. Efforts are underway to re-establish communication links with St. Thomas as soon as possible.

2. Electricity
Well over 125,000 JPS customers are without power supply.

3. Water Supply
There have been reports of damage to water supply systems.

[PhillyWX]

Here are the last several runs of the GFDL:

Code: Select all

GFDL Run   Final Landfall   Pressure   Wind
12z 8/17   Grand Isle, LA   925.1   139.725
18z 8/17   Freeport, TX   913   150.075
0z 8/18   Corpus Christi, TX   923.8   130.41
6z 8/18   S. Padre Island, TX   928.1   137.655
12z 8/18   S. Padre Island, TX   933.2   139.725
18z 8/18   La Pesca, MX   947.4   134.55
0z 8/19   La Pesca, MX   946.2   136.62
6z 8/19   N of Tampico, MX   950   139.725
12z 8/19   Poza Rica, MX   958.8   127.305
18z 8/19   Martinez de la Torre, MX   960   130.41
0z 8/20   Tampico, MX   960   120.06
6z 8/20   Tampico, MX   959.5   138.69


[HollynLA]

Props to the GFS on Dean. After watching the ULL lag around yesterday afternoon, it's picked up speed at a good clip now which should keep it on it's forecasted track. I just hope the devastation on Mexico is minimal but it's not looking like a good situation for them at this time.