CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tailgater]

Cuban radar leaves something to be desired, but here ya go.
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

Winds back up to 150

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

145 knots*1.15*.9=150 mph at the surface.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200554
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 44 20070820
054430 1737N 07800W 6961 03144 0037 +086 +086 170058 060 046 008 03
054500 1738N 07758W 6968 03134 0046 +081 +081 171059 061 046 010 03
054530 1739N 07756W 6970 03129 0078 +056 +056 171057 062 046 045 05
054600 1740N 07755W 6956 03155 0055 +075 +075 160046 048 046 010 03
054630 1740N 07753W 6968 03141 0070 +066 +066 153051 053 999 999 03
054700 1740N 07752W 6959 03155 0077 +064 +064 150050 052 045 024 03
054730 1739N 07750W 6969 03140 0089 +055 +055 148051 052 044 044 03
054800 1738N 07749W 6963 03150 0090 +056 +056 148054 056 043 008 00
054830 1738N 07748W 6967 03146 0088 +059 +059 148051 051 043 008 00
054900 1737N 07746W 6965 03148 0068 +074 +074 147050 051 042 006 00
054930 1736N 07745W 6968 03148 0065 +078 +078 149049 049 041 005 00
055000 1736N 07744W 6969 03150 0066 +077 +077 150050 051 041 004 00
055030 1735N 07743W 6965 03155 0066 +077 +077 147047 048 041 005 00
055100 1734N 07741W 6964 03155 0064 +079 +079 151047 048 043 004 00
055130 1734N 07740W 6967 03153 0064 +081 +081 152049 050 042 005 03
055200 1734N 07738W 6968 03153 0074 +075 +075 154049 050 039 006 00
055230 1734N 07737W 6968 03156 0075 +076 +076 150050 050 038 005 00
055300 1734N 07735W 6968 03156 0071 +080 +080 151048 048 038 005 00
055330 1734N 07733W 6964 03161 0065 +084 +083 152048 049 038 005 00
055400 1734N 07732W 6966 03158 0072 +078 +078 155047 047 035 007 00
$$


Finally...


000
URNT15 KNHC 200604
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 45 20070820
055430 1734N 07730W 6960 03162 0075 +076 +076 156045 046 035 008 03
055500 1734N 07728W 6971 03153 0080 +074 +074 144048 049 038 007 00
055530 1734N 07727W 6972 03153 0078 +076 +076 142050 052 038 007 00
055600 1735N 07725W 6971 03157 0085 +073 +073 144055 056 037 008 00
055630 1735N 07724W 6961 03172 0098 +065 +065 142056 057 038 006 00
055700 1735N 07722W 6968 03163 0085 +076 +071 141054 055 037 005 00
055730 1736N 07721W 6967 03166 0086 +077 +068 140052 053 037 004 00
055800 1736N 07719W 6968 03166 0090 +074 +070 137051 052 036 004 00
055830 1736N 07718W 6964 03170 0090 +074 +070 135051 051 036 005 00
055900 1736N 07716W 6968 03167 0088 +078 +061 134051 051 034 005 00
055930 1737N 07714W 6968 03167 0093 +075 +041 132051 052 032 005 00
060000 1737N 07713W 6964 03172 0092 +077 +045 132051 052 034 005 00
060030 1737N 07711W 6964 03173 0091 +080 +039 132051 051 035 005 00
060100 1737N 07710W 6967 03172 0087 +081 +047 132051 051 034 006 00
060130 1738N 07708W 6967 03172 0084 +084 +051 133050 051 033 005 03
060200 1738N 07707W 6964 03174 0082 +087 +043 134050 050 034 005 00
060230 1738N 07705W 6959 03184 0083 +083 +047 135049 050 034 005 00
060300 1738N 07703W 6779 03392 0078 +074 +022 138048 049 035 004 00
060330 1738N 07702W 6575 03646 0078 +059 +008 146048 048 033 003 00
060400 1737N 07700W 6385 03888 0079 +045 -019 153049 051 033 002 00
$$


Plane is ascending; mission is over.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got question did the nhc ever have hurricane boats that went out to do what the recon does nows. In do they still have any to make any trips into a storm like Dean?

Also this system outflow is expanding big time,,,,if it had a more stable core instead of EWRC's every few hours we would have a cat5. I still think it will be a cat5, because it is likely now that it is becoming more stable.

[Sanibel]

Watch Belize folks the ridge could be stronger than expected.

150mph and showing signs of strengthening.

[Normandy]

Ive been meaning to post a long analysis of Dean's situation but have been busy....hopefully tom I can.

In Short.....

-TRACK-
Dean looks to be approaching the western extent of the ridge on top of him, and that ridge really hasn't extended westward too much today. Other features that relate to Dean are the ULL and a high pressure system over near New MX/TX. This ULH and the one on top of Dean are creating a squeeze play on the ULL, and this is what the GFS is seeing and dissipates the ULL in 24 hours. In order for this to occur the ridge over Dean must push westward...and is forecasted to do so.

Short term motion should be more WNW since Dean is approaching the ULL and is closest in proximity it has been. A couple of days ago when Dean approached this same ULL it began a more WNW heading, and that is likely again tonight it seems. If the ridge does what it is suppose to do, Dean should begin a more westerly heading tommorrow as the ULL loses its strength. This track should take Dean just south of Cozumel, putting the island at risk for the RFQ of a Category 5 Hurricane. Beyond this, if the ridge holds, US landfall should not occur. The track of this dangerous hurricane all depends on the strength of this ridge....if it is not as strong Dean could turn north....if it is STRONGER than forecasted....Dean could even turn WSW.



INTENSITY
..........in two words: very scary. Recon just reported 145 kt Flight level winds and SFMR recorded 133 kt winds in an eyewall drop...indicating that Dean is *very* close to becoming a Cat5. This should occur tonight as Dean begins to deepen extensively under optimal Upper level conditions and extremely high THCP & SSTs. During the night, I'd expect Dean to deepend significantly and border on RI, as the ERC it underwent today has ended. With the pressure at 924 right now....Dean could approach the low 900's tomorrow, and from that point on, a sub-900 hurricane can't be ruled out. Dean should begin another ERC soon after this, and this could occur on his approach to the Yucatan. Never the less, I am in belief that Dean will become a Category 5 hurricane, and will strike the Yucatan as a Category 5 hurricane.


-EFFECTS-
In one word: CATASTROPHIC. During his passage over Jamaica, Dean sent 100 kt winds into Kingston without the eyewall passing over Kingston....that is indicative of a very powerful and destructive hurricane. Also of note, Dean was not at his optimal strength and was still undergoing an ERC at the time. Should Dean strike the Yucatan at *optimal intensity* and not undergo an ERC, anything within 40 miles of the coast will be leveled. Extensive damage will extend hundreds of miles inland, and the side Dean EXITS could see damage similar to what Wilma did in Florida. A truly historic hurricane could occur.

[sau27]

ok i dont know if this is a wobble or what but look at this gulf WV loop. looks like the ULL is stationary or very very slowly moving west. it looks like cloud motion down by yucatan is getting pulled north AND look at deans eye its right along the bottom of the image and seems to be moving alittle more NW probably a wobble but you never know

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

[Brent]

I got question did the nhc ever have hurricane boats that went out to do what the recon does nows. In do they still have any to make any trips into a storm like Dean?

[Pebbles]

I got question did the nhc ever have hurricane boats that went out to do what the recon does nows. In do they still have any to make any trips into a storm like Dean?

actually i thought it was a pretty good question

[srainhoutx]

What time is the SAT eclipse over? Any one know?

[srainhoutx]

Great Job dwsqos2. Thanks.

[wxmann_91]

What time is the SAT eclipse over? Any one know?

0615Z... should be coming out in a little over 15 minutes.

[srainhoutx]

What time is the SAT eclipse over? Any one know?

0615Z... should be coming out in a little over 15 minutes.

Thank you Sir.

[Stratosphere747]

ok i dont know if this is a wobble or what but look at this gulf WV loop. looks like the ULL is stationary or very very slowly moving west. it looks like cloud motion down by yucatan is getting pulled north AND look at deans eye its right along the bottom of the image and seems to be moving alittle more NW probably a wobble but you never know

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

Dean is moving due West. I go so far as to say this has been the longest without any of the wobbles to the WNW in quite sometime.

[Normandy]

Well so much for my short term WNW motion theory

[Stratosphere747]

Well so much for my short term WNW motion theory

Yeah. I think you may have missed that one.. Dean had been taking the ever so subtle stair-stepping most of the day. But since moving away from Jamaica its been just about due W without any gain in lat.

[HurricaneBill]

I got question did the nhc ever have hurricane boats that went out to do what the recon does nows. In do they still have any to make any trips into a storm like Dean?

No, because boats have the tendency to sink in very rough seas.

[Normandy]

He should start to gain *some* latitude though, he is very close to the ULL and at the western extent of his ridge. I can't see him just book it west into Belize.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Those boats would have to survive seas that are at least 80 feet in a Category 4+ hurricane...