CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

When does the mission ends?

[CrazyC83]

991
URNT12 KNHC 200408
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/03:42:50Z
B. 17 deg 30 min N
079 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 2467 m
D. 105 kt
E. 226 deg 8 nm
F. 342 deg 104 kt
G. 226 deg 016 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3069 m
J. 15 C/ 3044 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NW QUAD 02:25:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 145 KT N QUAD 03:48:30 Z
MAX SWS 125 KT N QUAD 03:47:00 Z
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OUTBOUND N QUAD

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200409
XXAA 70047 99174 70791 04479 99957 25003 25596 00890 ///// /////
92298 23006 27613 85035 20006 30113 70701 11600 32089 88999 77999
31313 09608 80340
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1734N07899W 0344 MBL WND 27115 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 30598 956711 WL150 25613 085 =
XXBB 70048 99174 70791 04479 00957 25003 11850 20006 22730 15008
33709 14400 44697 10400
21212 00957 25596 11954 25098 22947 25618 33934 27107 44925 27613
55919 27622 66909 28128 77901 28128 88894 28120 99888 28123 11873
29112 22859 29118 33850 30113 44845 30123 55844 30134 66830 32121
77823 31606 88763 32085 99697 32089
31313 09608 80340
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1734N07899W 0344 MBL WND 27115 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 30598 956711 WL150 25613 085 =

957 mb; surface winds of 96 knots; MBL winds of 115 knots.



Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200411
XXAA 70047 99177 70790 04479 99945 26000 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92191 24402 05633 85932 21415 07641 70606 14211 10141 88999 77999
31313 09608 80345
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 360 SPL 1767N07912W 0349 LST WND 020 MBL WND 06136
AEV 00000 DLM WND 07635 943720 WL150 04628 095 =
XXBB 70048 99177 70790 04479 00945 26000 11850 21415 22800 20638
33716 15423 44707 16216 55697 13408
21212 00945 ///// 11943 03123 22939 04120 33932 05134 44921 05633
55910 06645 66904 06637 77898 06644 88885 06638 99872 07143 11850
07641 22697 10142
31313 09608 80345
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 360 SPL 1767N07912W 0349 LST WND 020 MBL WND 06136
AEV 00000 DLM WND 07635 943720 WL150 04628 095 =

945 mb; no surface winds; 925 mb winds of 133 knots; MBL winds of 136 knots.

[sevenleft]

The last pass through the N eyewall has a double wind maxima...and the VDM just confirmed a double eyewall on the north side.

[wxmann_91]

Great observation wxmann_91. I now feel more confident in a non US hit and sure hope this pans out.

I second the appreciation wxmann_91, you have been very helpful in alleviating some fears. I do still worry that the high over our hurricane might find a home in that weakness, but I will wait and see for now.

I'm glad that I could be of help.

[dwsqos2]

Eyewall Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 200412
XXAA 70047 99178 70790 04479 99959 25006 04117 00868 ///// /////
92320 23007 05652 85055 19408 08145 70716 14010 09626 88999 77999
31313 09608 80347
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 20
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1774N07914W 0351 MBL WND 04637 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 07637 958709 WL150 04126 078 =
XXBB 70048 99178 70790 04479 00959 25006 11850 19408 22697 13610
21212 00959 04117 11940 04135 22930 04638 33925 05652 44912 06153
55907 06144 66896 07133 77877 07648 88872 07657 99862 07642 11850
08145 22825 08155 33697 10127
31313 09608 80347
61616 AF304 1104A DEAN OB 20
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1774N07914W 0351 MBL WND 04637 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 07637 958709 WL150 04126 078 =

959 mb; surface winds of 117 knots; MBL winds of 137 knots.

[CrazyC83]

453
URNT15 KNHC 200414
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 34 20070820
040430 1846N 07900W 6962 03123 0023 +080 +080 096070 072 048 007 03
040500 1848N 07900W 6969 03113 0019 +084 +084 098072 073 045 050 03
040530 1848N 07900W 6969 03113 0017 +088 +088 098070 071 046 006 03
040600 1851N 07900W 6966 03123 0023 +086 +082 098069 069 047 006 00
040630 1853N 07900W 6966 03122 0018 +090 +072 096069 070 046 006 00
040700 1855N 07900W 6970 03121 0023 +089 +074 098071 072 045 004 00
040730 1857N 07900W 6963 03132 0030 +085 +081 099071 072 045 005 00
040800 1858N 07900W 6963 03132 0033 +083 +077 100070 071 046 005 00
040830 1900N 07900W 6971 03124 0031 +086 +077 099071 071 046 005 00
040900 1902N 07900W 6966 03134 0042 +081 +081 099071 071 045 005 00
040930 1904N 07900W 6964 03137 0050 +074 +074 100070 071 043 006 00
041000 1906N 07900W 6968 03133 0048 +076 +076 101072 073 044 003 00
041030 1907N 07900W 6967 03134 0048 +079 +079 102075 076 043 004 00
041100 1909N 07900W 6971 03134 0049 +079 +079 102074 075 044 003 00
041130 1911N 07900W 6966 03141 0050 +081 +076 100071 072 042 003 00
041200 1913N 07900W 6971 03137 0052 +079 +079 102070 072 041 003 03
041230 1915N 07900W 6963 03149 0059 +075 +075 100069 070 999 999 03
041300 1915N 07903W 6964 03144 0057 +076 +076 097068 070 999 999 03
041330 1914N 07904W 6971 03138 0052 +081 +080 097062 064 039 003 03
041400 1912N 07905W 6967 03140 0047 +082 +077 095063 064 042 003 03
$$

[Scorpion]

145 kt FL is 130 kt

[canetracker]

It does look like the ULL is just starting feel the effect of the Westerlies on this loop. As long as Dean does not go more northerly really soon, it may not feel that weekness. Of course, those in its path are in my thoughts and I do hope the best for them.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[HURAKAN]

This will be my last graphic for the night.

See you in the morning. It's time to sleep!!!

[mgpetre]

BTW, somehow this forecast discussion about the ULL seems to be carrying on more in the other thread for Dean. Isn't this really the most appropriate place to post regarding this? I hate to see observations clouded by predictions. Will someone be posting the spaghetti map when most of the 00z models are done?

Looks like he's beginning to turn more NW, hope it's just a wobble and that when I wake up in the morning I find that I am totally wrong on this first storm I've put myself out there on and publicly stated that I disagree with the models. I will eat plenty of crow if that is the case and gladly do it. Goodnight all... and thoughts for everyone in Jamaica...

[bayoubebe]

Not to mention the former Director of the NHC...Dr. Neil Frank even said himself that the ULL *MAY* change things. I'd like to see you guys argue with him.

Doesn't he HAVE to say that? Think about it.
Even if there is a 0.001% chance that the ULL will change things, shouldn't he mention it?

He feels a sense of obligation mentioning that to viewers out there.
He's covering himself, and the viewers, as he should be.

No one knows 100% what will happen. We ARE dealing with nature here.

Follow it closely and we'll just have to see.
Just my 2 cents here.

[CrazyC83]

863
URNT15 KNHC 200424
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 35 20070820
041430 1911N 07907W 6956 03155 0053 +078 +074 094063 063 043 002 00
041500 1909N 07909W 6963 03152 0064 +074 +074 093066 069 045 003 00
041530 1908N 07912W 6961 03158 0070 +077 +077 092071 072 045 003 00
041600 1906N 07914W 6970 03150 0071 +077 +077 090068 069 045 002 00
041630 1904N 07917W 6967 03152 0061 +084 +073 088066 067 045 002 00
041700 1902N 07919W 6977 03144 0067 +082 +075 084067 067 045 001 00
041730 1900N 07922W 6967 03155 0065 +082 +082 081067 067 046 003 00
041800 1859N 07924W 6966 03152 0061 +081 +081 080066 067 050 001 00
041830 1857N 07927W 6965 03149 0060 +079 +079 080067 068 050 001 00
041900 1855N 07929W 6966 03148 0062 +077 +077 079068 069 048 003 00
041930 1853N 07932W 6968 03143 0055 +081 +081 079068 068 050 004 00
042000 1851N 07934W 6967 03144 0055 +080 +080 075069 069 050 004 00
042030 1850N 07937W 6967 03140 0053 +080 +080 072071 071 049 003 00
042100 1848N 07939W 6966 03141 0047 +084 +082 072071 072 049 002 00
042130 1846N 07942W 6965 03143 0051 +080 +080 071070 070 049 002 00
042200 1844N 07944W 6965 03139 0049 +080 +080 071068 069 050 001 00
042230 1842N 07947W 6971 03133 0044 +081 +081 070066 066 049 002 03
042300 1842N 07950W 6961 03143 0049 +077 +077 069070 073 045 004 03
042330 1841N 07953W 6968 03135 0050 +078 +078 068075 076 045 002 00
042400 1841N 07956W 6968 03138 0045 +084 +080 071075 076 044 002 00
$$

[Derek Ortt]

2 points

1. the 90 percent rule is not absolute. Many are saying FL equals a certain surface wind. We have surface wind data from the SFMR

2. The UL is clearly moving on WV imagery. Was crystal clear when I looked at it before leaving the office tonight

[CrazyC83]

081
URNT15 KNHC 200434
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 36 20070820
042430 1841N 08000W 6966 03139 0039 +090 +074 067077 079 042 005 00
042500 1841N 08003W 6965 03146 0036 +096 +058 066078 078 041 003 00
042530 1840N 08006W 6967 03145 0040 +095 +057 063072 076 999 999 03
042600 1838N 08009W 6967 03145 0048 +087 +061 059066 069 042 002 03
042630 1836N 08011W 6965 03145 0044 +089 +059 060070 071 045 002 00
042700 1834N 08013W 6967 03145 0042 +094 +055 061070 071 046 003 00
042730 1832N 08016W 6962 03151 0035 +099 +055 060071 072 047 002 00
042800 1830N 08018W 6971 03141 0035 +099 +061 059070 071 047 001 00
042830 1828N 08020W 6963 03149 0037 +097 +068 056067 068 044 002 00
042900 1826N 08023W 6969 03144 0041 +096 +070 054064 065 043 002 00
042930 1824N 08025W 6963 03151 0046 +092 +070 056064 064 045 001 00
043000 1822N 08027W 6971 03144 0047 +093 +073 056064 064 044 001 00
043030 1820N 08030W 6961 03158 0046 +094 +075 051062 063 042 002 00
043100 1818N 08032W 6965 03152 0046 +094 +072 046061 061 041 002 00
043130 1816N 08034W 6967 03151 0046 +094 +081 046061 061 041 002 00
043200 1814N 08036W 6969 03149 0049 +094 +062 041059 060 041 002 00
043230 1812N 08039W 6964 03156 0053 +091 +063 039059 059 042 002 00
043300 1810N 08041W 6968 03152 0062 +085 +068 038060 061 040 002 00
043330 1808N 08043W 6967 03156 0066 +084 +062 035059 059 039 002 00
043400 1806N 08046W 6967 03153 0060 +087 +059 036061 062 037 001 00
$$

[MGC]

It appears the Caymans will be spared the core of Dean's winds......MGC

[WxGuy1]

Not to mention the former Director of the NHC...Dr. Neil Frank even said himself that the ULL *MAY* change things. I'd like to see you guys argue with him.

As has been noted above, many folks will actually say that the ULL *MAY* change things. However, I think the chance that it will lead to a significant gain in latitude for Dean is minimal.

My updated probabilities:

Chance of hitting Yucatan: 95%
Chance of missing Yucatan: 5%

Probability of hitting mainland Mexico: 90%
Probability of hitting southeastern Texas coast: 10%
Probability of hitting coast east of Galveston: negligible (~0%)

Yes, I believe there *is* a chance that Dean could turn northwestward in the Bay of Campeche and make landfall near Brownsville. However, I strongly believe this chance is very small, though still perhaps worth mentioning. In this manner, the use of probabilities allows one to address outliers and those more remote possibilities, while also being realistic on the overall threat. Regardless of where it hits, I suspect that Dean will make it back into the Bay of Campeche very significantly weaker, possibly even as only a tropical storm (though I anticipate it'll end re-emerge as a Cat 1 hurricane).

Still surprised cloud tops are relatively warm over much of the storm. Certainly nothing like some Cat 4-5 storms from years past.

Also, I see a lot of "*** FL winds means *** surface winds", and I've cautioned against this several times in the past couple of days. The 90% rule is only a very rough rule-of-thumb, and it's probably an overestimate much more often than an underestimate. In fact, some studies have shown that the sfc winds typically are only actually 65-75% of the 700mb flight-level winds. In addition, the reduction factor can very significant across different parts of the storm, so one part of the storm may see a 90% reduction factor while another part only sees a 70% reduction factor. So,if there are not other data to suppose a particular surface wind speed, don't expect one flight-level datum point used in a 90% reduction factor to support a Cat 5 upgrade.

EDIT: Didn't see Derek's post above mine until after I submitted this one. So, my last paragraph is a little redundant, but it bears repeating since the 90% rule-of-thumb seems to be relied upon heavily by some folks looking for an upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

014
URNT15 KNHC 200444
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 37 20070820
043430 1804N 08048W 6965 03157 0059 +090 +057 037060 061 035 002 00
043500 1802N 08050W 6964 03162 0063 +088 +061 035058 060 036 001 00
043530 1800N 08052W 6966 03160 0062 +089 +066 034054 056 034 002 00
043600 1758N 08055W 6968 03158 0062 +090 +078 030054 054 032 003 00
043630 1756N 08057W 6970 03162 0061 +094 +068 027051 055 035 002 03
043700 1754N 08059W 6970 03157 0056 +093 +071 027047 048 035 002 03
043730 1753N 08101W 6958 03162 0049 +094 +063 027046 047 035 002 00
043800 1752N 08104W 6970 03149 0049 +096 +062 030049 050 034 003 00
043830 1751N 08106W 6970 03152 0050 +097 +057 026051 052 032 002 00
043900 1750N 08108W 6973 03146 0046 +100 +054 024051 052 031 003 00
043930 1748N 08110W 6961 03163 0054 +096 +053 021051 051 031 002 00
044000 1747N 08112W 6963 03167 0048 +104 +045 017053 054 030 002 03
044030 1746N 08113W 6962 03172 0063 +097 +051 022056 056 027 003 03
044100 1743N 08115W 6964 03178 0072 +096 +055 022057 058 028 003 00
044130 1741N 08117W 6966 03179 0076 +095 +054 017057 057 025 003 00
044200 1738N 08118W 6969 03175 0078 +094 +065 015053 056 023 002 03
044230 1736N 08118W 6972 03166 0077 +090 +065 016048 049 999 999 03
044300 1734N 08116W 6964 03173 0076 +089 +059 017045 047 999 999 03
044330 1734N 08114W 6980 03150 0066 +095 +058 019046 049 022 003 03
044400 1734N 08112W 6963 03168 0060 +095 +055 016047 047 022 003 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

064
URNT15 KNHC 200454
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 38 20070820
044430 1734N 08111W 6968 03159 0055 +098 +056 016046 047 022 004 00
044500 1734N 08109W 6965 03161 0055 +095 +061 017046 048 027 004 00
044530 1734N 08107W 6966 03157 0054 +094 +061 020043 045 027 004 00
044600 1734N 08106W 6967 03156 0052 +094 +066 020042 046 028 003 00
044630 1734N 08104W 6963 03157 0053 +093 +069 019046 048 027 003 00
044700 1734N 08102W 6967 03155 0050 +095 +067 019046 046 027 003 00
044730 1734N 08100W 6971 03147 0051 +093 +069 019046 047 028 002 00
044800 1734N 08059W 6967 03152 0055 +090 +071 019045 047 027 003 00
044830 1734N 08057W 6967 03152 0053 +090 +062 019044 044 030 003 00
044900 1734N 08055W 6967 03148 0046 +093 +064 019044 045 030 003 00
044930 1734N 08054W 6967 03148 0047 +092 +069 022044 045 030 003 00
045000 1734N 08052W 6966 03146 0045 +091 +069 022043 045 030 003 00
045030 1734N 08050W 6969 03142 0034 +098 +069 025044 045 031 004 00
045100 1734N 08049W 6967 03144 0030 +100 +070 028048 050 032 003 00
045130 1734N 08047W 6963 03144 0032 +095 +070 026049 050 031 004 00
045200 1734N 08045W 6967 03136 0033 +094 +062 022049 051 035 003 00
045230 1734N 08044W 6965 03138 0029 +096 +062 021048 048 037 003 00
045300 1734N 08042W 6968 03133 0029 +095 +064 020048 048 037 004 00
045330 1734N 08040W 6967 03131 0020 +099 +063 019049 050 037 004 00
045400 1734N 08039W 6967 03130 0018 +098 +067 022048 049 038 004 00
$$

[hsvwx]

2 points

1. the 90 percent rule is not absolute. Many are saying FL equals a certain surface wind. We have surface wind data from the SFMR

2. The UL is clearly moving on WV imagery. Was crystal clear when I looked at it before leaving the office tonight

I completely agree with both of your points. I am not quite understanding where people see this ULL stalling. That 12 hour loop shows it perfectly. Dean and the upper level low are moving in tandem with one another. The high continues to build over Dean. There is no place left to go besides Mexico.