CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[srainhoutx]

I think the next run will "hint" if something is about to change as far as future track is concerned.

[Texashawk]

Not to mention the former Director of the NHC...Dr. Neil Frank even said himself that the ULL *MAY* change things. I'd like to see you guys argue with him.

I'd like to see you argue with a million pro-mets who say that the ULL will not have an effect because it IS moving away to the west at an appreciable rate.

This is what Derek Ortt said at 9:47 PM today about the ULL: "The upper low continues to retrograde to the west and should not impart an influence on the steering."

AND, here is what MWatkins had to say about the ULL: "...the guidance has shifted significantly southward since Friday...and the upper low in the Gulf appears to be clearing the pattern quicky. There are now no models that take Dean into Texas...let alone the central Gulf as the GFDL was doing last week."

See how I posted some supporting evidence to back my statements?
Please do the same before posting fear-mongering statements.

I don't think anyone posted any fear mongering statement. They (including myself) pointed out that the ULL has definitely slowed to a crawl or possibly stalled. Have you viewed the wv loop yourself? The link has been provided numerous times. That's the proof to back up our observations. I realize the pros are saying it moving west at a good clip, but I have to tell you that the wv loops for the past 7 hours does not show that. This is a tropical mb and we are allowed to post observations.

Frankly, if it's moving anywhere at all, it's moving north, not west.

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_066l.gif

No change at all. Inland in Mexico.

[wxmann_91]

No surprises first 24 hours from GFS

Yes... but it is basically dissapating the ULL.

I see that. That is kind on weird.
12 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012l.gif

24 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_024l.gif

The ULL is not dissipating. See the 200/300mb charts.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

[CrazyC83]

084
URNT15 KNHC 200354
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 32 20070820
034430 1737N 07859W 6969 02531 9298 +161 +153 109053 053 056 002 00
034500 1739N 07859W 6964 02545 9313 +157 +151 102073 095 098 000 00
034530 1740N 07859W 6967 02581 9383 +128 +128 101122 135 114 000 00
034600 1742N 07859W 6968 02646 9448 +130 +130 100140 142 117 000 00
034630 1744N 07859W 6966 02706 9501 +138 +119 100134 136 118 000 00
034700 1745N 07859W 6955 02764 9560 +128 +128 100132 133 125 000 00
034730 1747N 07859W 6968 02786 9600 +130 +130 098128 129 122 000 00
034800 1749N 07859W 6957 02835 9690 +088 +088 097140 142 104 020 00
034830 1750N 07859W 6973 02851 9728 +081 +081 095143 144 100 021 00
034900 1752N 07859W 6967 02886 9790 +067 +067 094135 136 092 018 03
034930 1753N 07859W 6966 02910 9810 +067 +067 096132 133 092 020 00
035000 1755N 07859W 6967 02934 9828 +074 +074 097126 127 085 009 00
035030 1756N 07859W 6966 02956 9847 +076 +076 096120 123 082 011 00
035100 1758N 07859W 6969 02972 9868 +076 +076 095115 116 079 010 00
035130 1800N 07859W 6966 02993 9892 +077 +077 095110 111 073 008 00
035200 1801N 07859W 6962 03011 9910 +067 +067 095105 106 071 010 05
035230 1803N 07859W 6981 02998 9922 +068 +068 097103 105 067 017 01
035300 1805N 07859W 6984 03001 9924 +069 +069 102101 103 065 016 01
035330 1806N 07859W 6963 03032 9925 +076 +076 104101 104 999 999 03
035400 1808N 07859W 6960 03043 9937 +073 +073 105100 100 999 999 03
$$

927mb and 144 kt FL (130 kt surface) on this pass.

[canetracker]

The ULL is not dissipating. See the 200/300mb charts.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

Thanks!

[mgpetre]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_066l.gif

No change at all. Inland in Mexico.

Not that it's really significant, it is north of the previous run a little, right?

[CronkPSU]

144 FL wind found

[philnyc]

Not to mention the former Director of the NHC...Dr. Neil Frank even said himself that the ULL *MAY* change things. I'd like to see you guys argue with him.

LOL. How can you argue with "MAY"? A very convenient word...

[timNms]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html 12 hr wv loop. looks like the upper low is becoming somewhat elongated. As my untrained eyes see it, it's feeling the squeeze between the high near FL and the one over west TX. How this plays out, I have no idea. I do know that I can see the clouds associated with the UL moving slowly off of the eastern Yucitan. I assume by seeing that, the low must be slowly moving away, whether that movement is to the west or north, I can't tell.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

I'm trying to tell people Dean is BELOW all those synoptic features and won't be pulled up by them.

This is my opinion and not endorsed by Storm2k

[wxmann_91]

The ULL is not dissipating. See the 200/300mb charts.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

Thanks!

You're welcome.

But I was wrong - it is dissipating - it is nearly gone at 48. Just not dissipated at 24.

The key of why Dean will likely never make it to TX - the weakness closes off after the upper trough (ULL opens up), gets caught in the midlatitude westerlies.

See hr 72: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

The vort max in OK is the remnant of the ULL right now. No way that's going to the US.

[tolakram]

How about we stick to arguing about the fate of some ULL in the model thread and not carry this ... conversation ... out in both threads.

[timNms]

I'm trying to tell people Dean is BELOW all those synoptic features and won't be pulled up by them.

This is my opinion and not endorsed by Storm2k

I'll agree that Dean is below these features at the present time. However, if the ULL should stall (not saying it will) and Dean continues to track w or wnw, eventually he will feel the influence of that ULL. Look at the clouds from it across the Yucitan Penn. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

I will say this. Thus far, NHC has been right with their tracking and I have no reason to question their judgement. It is interesting to watch this unfold, though.

[CrazyC83]

100
URNT15 KNHC 200404
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 33 20070820
035430 1810N 07859W 6977 03031 9937 +079 +079 102097 099 062 039 03
035500 1812N 07859W 6968 03048 9939 +084 +084 099097 098 060 008 00
035530 1814N 07859W 6971 03050 9948 +083 +083 103095 098 058 043 03
035600 1815N 07859W 6954 03074 9952 +086 +086 104089 092 059 026 00
035630 1817N 07859W 6963 03074 9956 +091 +091 105085 088 056 005 00
035700 1819N 07859W 6973 03063 9950 +103 +085 107088 090 056 004 00
035730 1821N 07859W 6966 03078 9964 +093 +091 101086 087 057 010 03
035800 1823N 07859W 6965 03082 9998 +064 +064 097083 085 055 023 05
035830 1825N 07859W 6964 03085 9975 +087 +087 095082 086 057 009 00
035900 1826N 07859W 6976 03074 9976 +089 +089 097084 085 056 008 00
035930 1828N 07859W 6971 03088 9977 +093 +093 098078 080 055 003 00
040000 1830N 07859W 6963 03098 9986 +091 +088 097075 078 054 004 00
040030 1832N 07859W 6969 03094 9986 +093 +085 097073 074 053 003 00
040100 1833N 07859W 6970 03098 9995 +087 +084 098073 073 052 003 00
040130 1835N 07859W 6964 03105 0019 +072 +072 098072 073 053 004 00
040200 1837N 07859W 6966 03106 0025 +070 +070 098073 074 052 006 00
040230 1839N 07859W 6973 03100 0010 +083 +083 094073 073 051 004 00
040300 1841N 07859W 6962 03116 0013 +083 +083 095072 072 050 004 00
040330 1842N 07859W 6964 03115 0013 +084 +084 096074 074 050 004 00
040400 1844N 07900W 6970 03113 0021 +082 +082 095074 076 048 006 00
$$

[canetracker]

Great observation wxmann_91. I now feel more confident in a non US hit and sure hope this pans out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html 12 hr wv loop. looks like the upper low is becoming somewhat elongated. As my untrained eyes see it, it's feeling the squeeze between the high near FL and the one over west TX. How this plays out, I have no idea. I do know that I can see the clouds associated with the UL moving slowly off of the eastern Yucitan. I assume by seeing that, the low must be slowly moving away, whether that movement is to the west or north, I can't tell.

As mentioned on model thread, GFS predicts (and the squeezing would also suggest) the ULL gets squeezed out of existence in next 48 hours.

[Stratosphere747]

The 0z run did shift a bit to the N from the 18z. Minimal though...

[mgpetre]

Great observation wxmann_91. I now feel more confident in a non US hit and sure hope this pans out.

I second the appreciation wxmann_91, you have been very helpful in alleviating some fears. I do still worry that the high over our hurricane might find a home in that weakness, but I will wait and see for now.