CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jhamps10]

not saying that our ULL is stalling, but it sure heck has slowed down a LOT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

zoom in and track the edge of it frame by frame, It slows down a lot in the last 5 frames.

[destruction92]

Not to mention the former Director of the NHC...Dr. Neil Frank even said himself that the ULL *MAY* change things. I'd like to see you guys argue with him.

I'd like to see you argue with a million pro-mets who say that the ULL will not have an effect because it IS moving away to the west at an appreciable rate.

This is what Derek Ortt said at 9:47 PM today about the ULL: "The upper low continues to retrograde to the west and should not impart an influence on the steering."

AND, here is what MWatkins had to say about the ULL: "...the guidance has shifted significantly southward since Friday...and the upper low in the Gulf appears to be clearing the pattern quicky. There are now no models that take Dean into Texas...let alone the central Gulf as the GFDL was doing last week."

See how I posted some supporting evidence to back my statements?
Please do the same before posting fear-mongering statements.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

No surprises first 24 hours from GFS

Regarding future Felix and probable path towards Florida, note lots of rain and beginning of a healthy kink in isobars in area mentioned in last TWOAT.


But I digress...

[wxmann_91]

that is not true at all. Have you ever been in one? If you haven't then you don't know the fear a track change can bring to you. You want all the lead time you can get. I thought better of you wxmann91.

I understand there are many here who come for information. But a lot of the membership here are enthusiasts, and like storms to track. Those enthusiasts have -removed- in their subconcious. I'm not ridiculing anyone, and I'm one of them.

No, I haven't been in a hurricane. I understand though that a track change can bring fear.

BTW, in all of us (in my original post) --> in all of us enthusiasts, excluding those that come here for information

Also, I'd add that to many people a hurricane is like a good novel where you don't know the ending. Understanding emotionally that many of these 'novels' end unhappily, the idea of uncertainty is still romantic among people. It's not '-removed-' so much as wanting to see twists and turns in the 'story'. A novel where you know the ending halfway in isn't nearly as entertaining, and I think that's in a way why people post and act the way they do here.

Feel free to disagree.

Definitely. Suspense works for literature, it does for hurricanes as well. And for any other type of wx, for that matter.

[Texashawk]

No surprises first 24 hours from GFS

Yes... but it is basically dissapating the ULL.

[mf_dolphin]

A couple of notes:
-All who track here 12 hr a day at least, in the past 2 days, are people I disagree with. Face it. We wouldn't spend a lot of time tracking something if we did not care. A lot of the time we ourselves are not aware of our Freudian tendencies.

That statement is one of the most unfounded and assinine statements I've seen in a long time. Considering the tings I've seen posted on this board in the last few years that's saying a lot!

[southerngale]

You can think it all day long, but we'd like for you not to call others w!schasters. It will usually just start an argument.

[Sanibel]

I'm beginning to doubt that 118-138 wind report from Kingston. The NHC chart shows Kingston under the 80KT ring. This would make the peak winds more like 90 - 110 gust. If the 138 was an estimate they probably saw a strong 110 gust go by and overestimated.

The south miss really did make the difference.

[wxmann_91]

A couple of notes:
-All who track here 12 hr a day at least, in the past 2 days, are people I disagree with. Face it. We wouldn't spend a lot of time tracking something if we did not care. A lot of the time we ourselves are not aware of our Freudian tendencies.

That statement is one of the most unfounded and assinine statements I've seen in a long time. Considering the tings I've seen posted on this board in the last few years that's saying a lot!

I specified that it was enthusiasts. Not all members.

And people I disagree with in that case is not used negatively. I'm not saying people I disagree with are bad. Weren't many of us wanting to track a storm just a week ago?

[srainhoutx]

No surprises first 24 hours from GFS

Regarding future Felix and probable path towards Florida, note lots of rain and beginning of a healthy kink in isobars in area mentioned in last TWOAT.


But I digress...

Watching potential Felix closely. Still have many friends in S FL and Lower Keys

[CrazyC83]

668
URNT15 KNHC 200344
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 31 20070820
033430 1713N 07918W 6977 02982 9887 +071 +071 338072 073 059 017 03
033500 1714N 07917W 6967 02984 9867 +086 +086 337074 079 061 010 00
033530 1715N 07916W 6959 02977 9867 +072 +072 336083 085 065 009 00
033600 1716N 07915W 6977 02940 9834 +085 +085 336090 095 069 008 00
033630 1717N 07914W 6964 02939 9811 +084 +084 334089 091 073 053 03
033700 1718N 07913W 6972 02906 9990 +068 +999 331093 098 079 023 01
033730 1719N 07912W 6956 02891 9990 +072 +999 337100 104 081 026 01
033800 1720N 07911W 6974 02850 9990 +080 +999 343098 102 086 056 05
033830 1721N 07910W 6948 02855 9990 +088 +999 339095 104 087 018 01
033900 1722N 07909W 6987 02782 9649 +096 +096 334084 087 090 022 01
033930 1723N 07908W 6965 02782 9990 +092 +999 331086 091 094 024 01
034000 1724N 07907W 6957 02746 9569 +097 +097 325086 087 097 023 00
034030 1725N 07905W 6978 02675 9527 +099 +099 320085 087 105 011 01
034100 1726N 07904W 6968 02639 9442 +128 +128 319084 085 103 010 00
034130 1727N 07903W 6962 02589 9370 +140 +140 314074 086 095 010 00
034200 1728N 07902W 6971 02534 9319 +147 +147 315038 043 071 007 00
034230 1730N 07900W 6969 02512 9290 +151 +151 313015 023 033 005 00
034300 1731N 07859W 6964 02509 9282 +150 +150 180003 011 021 003 00
034330 1733N 07858W 6964 02512 9266 +168 +154 123030 039 028 004 03
034400 1735N 07859W 6968 02516 9283 +161 +152 115049 051 042 004 00
$$

Not far from the eye.

[wxmann_91]

You can think it all day long, but we'd like for you not to call others w!schasters. It will usually just start an argument.

I really hope it doesn't.

If there are any more questions, we can take it to PM.

[CronkPSU]

no changes that i can see on this GFS run...still yucatan and then southern mexico

[Yankeegirl]

from: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

That is an awsome map!!! Thanks for sharing!!

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, this is the 3-day cone now. The chance of Dean moving outside of that cone is slim, at best. At this point, I think we can very well say that Dean is Mexico bound (UNLESS the ULL does decide to stall for at least the next 24-36 hours). My prayers go out for those in Jamaica and then in the Yucatan and mainland Mexico. Let's just hope that future Felix ends up being as kind to the U.S.A. as Dean should be.

[canetracker]

No surprises first 24 hours from GFS

Yes... but it is basically dissapating the ULL.

I see that. That is kind on weird.
12 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_012l.gif

24 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_024l.gif

[HollynLA]

Not to mention the former Director of the NHC...Dr. Neil Frank even said himself that the ULL *MAY* change things. I'd like to see you guys argue with him.

I'd like to see you argue with a million pro-mets who say that the ULL will not have an effect because it IS moving away to the west at an appreciable rate.

This is what Derek Ortt said at 9:47 PM today about the ULL: "The upper low continues to retrograde to the west and should not impart an influence on the steering."

AND, here is what MWatkins had to say about the ULL: "...the guidance has shifted significantly southward since Friday...and the upper low in the Gulf appears to be clearing the pattern quicky. There are now no models that take Dean into Texas...let alone the central Gulf as the GFDL was doing last week."

See how I posted some supporting evidence to back my statements?
Please do the same before posting fear-mongering statements.

I don't think anyone posted any fear mongering statement. They (including myself) pointed out that the ULL has definitely slowed to a crawl or possibly stalled. Have you viewed the wv loop yourself? The link has been provided numerous times. That's the proof to back up our observations. I realize the pros are saying it moving west at a good clip, but I have to tell you that the wv loops for the past 7 hours does not show that. This is a tropical mb and we are allowed to post observations.

[canetracker]

Maybe it dissapates it because it is having a hard time with it being between 2 hi pressure systems:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=