CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Yankeegirl]

I just watched Dr. Frank and he mentioned the Low and whats its doing and what might happen if it stalls... But he doesnt seem too concerned about it... he said we just have to keep an eye on it... No big deal... things change...I dont think its going to move into Texas... but once again, it all depends on what the LOW does... Time will tell... Nothing to loose sleep over, unless you live in Mexico...

[weatherguru18]

What was the last hurricane that you can think of that actually hit outside of the entire cone? It'd be unprecedented.

oh boy, you just opened up a big ole can of worms...INCOMING

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

If you can't see that this is sitting in the same spot...then I don't know what to tell you.

By the way, at what point is it "outside the cone" The cone is constantly shifting. The NHC doesn't want to look bad. Rita's cone shifted big time and so did Ernesto's. 33% of the time, they hit "outside the cone"

[chris_fit]

Wow, I didn't mean to stir the pot! Apologies to all offended by my "wish-caster" comment, it was not taken the way I intended it (sarcastic humor.)

I agree with the the "wish-caster" comment stating it is overused, and would like to add taken too seriously too

Carry on

[Stratosphere747]

If there was going to be any changes in the models, it would start with the upcoming 0z GFS run.

THE NOAA
GULFSTREAM-IV JET CONDUCTED A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION THIS
EVENING TO PROVIDE DATA FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE.

[CronkPSU]

bring on the 0z GFS

[weatherguru18]

Not to mention the former Director of the NHC...Dr. Neil Frank even said himself that the ULL *MAY* change things. I'd like to see you guys argue with him.

[srainhoutx]

that is not true at all. Have you ever been in one? If you haven't then you don't know the fear a track change can bring to you. You want all the lead time you can get. I thought better of you wxmann91.

Example, Katrina. S FL headed for W Palm, no wait, headed for N Broward County, no wait headed WSW at Miami/Dade/Broward County Line and 40 miles N of Key West and me up to my waist in water for a storm that wasn't suppose to a threat 36 hour out. I'm 6'1" and almost 50 thank you.

[HURAKAN]

[jhamps10]

bring on the 0z GFS

best post I have seen in the past 45 minutes.

should be starting pretty soon as well.

[Starburst]

Remember everyone for the posters and comments you do not care to see Storm2k does have an ignore feature.

[HarlequinBoy]

I'm not saying it cannot happen, but we are not just talking about the 5 day cone, but the 3 day cone. The 3 day cone brings Dean across the Yucatan and straight into Mexico. The area of uncertainty doesn't even include areas near the Texas border any longer. The NHC has pretty much nailed this storm for much of its life, I am sticking with them. From my knowledge the 3 day cone tends to be fairly accurate.

3 Day Cone per 11 PM ADV.

[wxmann_91]

that is not true at all. Have you ever been in one? If you haven't then you don't know the fear a track change can bring to you. You want all the lead time you can get. I thought better of you wxmann91.

I understand there are many here who come for information. But a lot of the membership here are enthusiasts, and like storms to track. Those enthusiasts have -removed- in their subconcious. I'm not ridiculing anyone, and I'm one of them.

No, I haven't been in a hurricane. I understand though that a track change can bring fear.

BTW, in all of us (in my original post) --> in all of us enthusiasts, excluding those that come here for information

[Duddy]

When exactly does the 0z start?

[srainhoutx]

that is not true at all. Have you ever been in one? If you haven't then you don't know the fear a track change can bring to you. You want all the lead time you can get. I thought better of you wxmann91.

I understand there are many here who come for information. But a lot of the membership here are enthusiasts, and like storms to track. Those enthusiasts have -removed- in their subconcious. I'm not ridiculing anyone, and I'm one of them.

No, I haven't been in a hurricane. I understand though that a track change can bring fear.

I'll take that as an apology

[tolakram]

from: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

[sau27]

il admit im probably one of the people I disagree with, and am intrigued by this ULL situation but past experience has told me the model runs will almost certainly squash any interesting features. I expect no different this time. but how interesting would that be if somethign changes.

[CrazyC83]

807
URNT15 KNHC 200334
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 30 20070820
032430 1652N 07944W 6965 03108 0004 +088 +083 342039 039 032 003 00
032500 1653N 07942W 6972 03099 0000 +088 +082 340041 042 035 003 00
032530 1654N 07941W 6971 03096 9999 +087 +085 343042 042 033 003 00
032600 1655N 07940W 6965 03097 9993 +086 +086 341042 043 035 004 00
032630 1656N 07938W 6971 03090 9985 +089 +089 341046 047 036 003 00
032700 1657N 07937W 6963 03094 9987 +085 +085 338045 046 036 003 00
032730 1658N 07936W 6965 03088 9981 +087 +078 336043 043 037 003 00
032800 1659N 07934W 6965 03084 9969 +093 +079 338042 042 036 003 00
032830 1700N 07933W 6973 03071 9957 +099 +074 337044 044 037 004 00
032900 1701N 07932W 6967 03073 9958 +094 +080 340043 044 038 004 00
032930 1702N 07931W 6964 03073 9957 +091 +078 336043 043 038 005 00
033000 1703N 07929W 6965 03068 9960 +085 +083 332045 048 041 005 00
033030 1704N 07928W 6966 03064 9957 +084 +084 333049 049 041 004 00
033100 1705N 07927W 6968 03056 9952 +084 +082 335051 053 042 004 00
033130 1707N 07925W 6967 03051 9947 +083 +083 339055 056 044 006 00
033200 1708N 07924W 6965 03047 9939 +083 +083 333056 056 046 008 00
033230 1709N 07923W 6971 03033 9928 +084 +084 332058 060 047 008 00
033300 1710N 07922W 6965 03029 9930 +075 +075 328060 061 050 034 03
033330 1711N 07920W 6959 03032 9933 +066 +066 331064 066 053 042 03
033400 1712N 07919W 6967 03004 9990 +064 +999 331065 068 055 017 05
$$

[Texashawk]

that is not true at all. Have you ever been in one? If you haven't then you don't know the fear a track change can bring to you. You want all the lead time you can get. I thought better of you wxmann91.

I understand there are many here who come for information. But a lot of the membership here are enthusiasts, and like storms to track. Those enthusiasts have -removed- in their subconcious. I'm not ridiculing anyone, and I'm one of them.

No, I haven't been in a hurricane. I understand though that a track change can bring fear.

BTW, in all of us (in my original post) --> in all of us enthusiasts, excluding those that come here for information

Also, I'd add that to many people a hurricane is like a good novel where you don't know the ending. Understanding emotionally that many of these 'novels' end unhappily, the idea of uncertainty is still romantic among people. It's not '-removed-' so much as wanting to see twists and turns in the 'story'. A novel where you know the ending halfway in isn't nearly as entertaining, and I think that's in a way why people post and act the way they do here.

Feel free to disagree.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No surprises first 24 hours from GFS

[CronkPSU]

When exactly does the 0z start?

12 minutes ago