CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[gatorcane]

Hey everybody, no doubt Dean is a beast and my condolences go out to those in the path of the system...

But...when you get a chance, take a look at what is unfolding a couple of hundred miles NE of the windward islands -- yep, a system that at least the CMC brings into the East Coast of Florida as a hurricane this weekend with a building ridge to the north.

We are discussing it in the Talkin Tropics forum.

[tolakram]

[baitism]

if you were listening to Jamaican radio you might think differently

There is no way gusts that high could have made their way to Kingston. I am sure people were scared. It is very hard for the average person to tell the difference between a 120 and a 160 mph gust....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Sau27, I can give you two reasons the highs won't be as high as they were when the High pressure was over you. 1. And probably the most important, Errin just gave you a lot of rain. There is a lot of moisture in the ground and this does keep highs temps down by evaporative cooling a few degrees.
2. We are getting later in the year and the angle of the sun is longer now. We have pretty much seen the highest temps that we will see this year.
JMHO, along with some weather knowledge.

That wouldn't make much sense though, because right before our last heat wave we had also just recieved lots of rain (the 11th wettest July on record, in fact). Also, the sun angle shouldn't be that much lower in just a weeks time. It is still only August, and in the past Houston has been known to reach over 100˚ well into September.

[clfenwi]

Dean's northern eyewall punishing Jamaica

8:21 p.m. ET 8/19/07
Tim Ballisty and M. Ressler, Meteorologists,The Weather Channel

The center of powerful Hurricane Dean is now passing just south of the western part of Jamaica with 145 mph winds; a healthy category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

A Kingston observing site has reported sustained easterly winds to 114 mph and gusts to at least 138 mph...

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropi ... enter_news

Their source for this is apparently the METAR ob that was posted earlier and repeated here for those who missed it:

MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994=

[CrazyC83]

350
URNT15 KNHC 200054
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 14 20070820
004430 1732N 07517W 6967 03173 0081 +091 +043 136040 041 019 002 00
004500 1733N 07519W 6971 03169 9990 +092 +999 138042 042 023 001 01
004530 1734N 07521W 6963 03178 9990 +098 +999 136043 044 022 002 01
004600 1735N 07523W 6974 03166 9990 +090 +999 139044 045 024 001 01
004630 1737N 07524W 6970 03172 9990 +095 +999 132043 044 024 002 01
004700 1738N 07526W 6961 03179 0064 +102 +056 130046 047 025 002 01
004730 1739N 07528W 6973 03166 0072 +097 +029 131047 047 026 002 00
004800 1740N 07530W 6967 03174 0073 +097 +020 130047 048 028 001 00
004830 1741N 07532W 6963 03179 0073 +098 +020 131048 048 028 002 00
004900 1743N 07534W 6969 03170 0072 +098 +025 134049 051 029 001 00
004930 1744N 07536W 6965 03176 0073 +099 +030 138053 053 029 002 00
005000 1745N 07538W 6963 03176 0076 +092 +048 140051 053 028 003 00
005030 1746N 07540W 6965 03173 0077 +091 +049 141049 050 030 002 00
005100 1747N 07542W 6964 03174 0072 +093 +044 139050 051 999 999 03
005130 1747N 07544W 6973 03164 0073 +095 +043 139045 046 029 001 00
005200 1746N 07546W 6961 03179 0074 +091 +045 139044 045 029 002 00
005230 1745N 07547W 6963 03173 0076 +089 +045 139043 044 029 001 00
005300 1745N 07549W 6969 03164 0079 +085 +050 141045 047 028 002 00
005330 1744N 07551W 6961 03173 0082 +081 +057 139050 051 027 001 00
005400 1743N 07553W 6969 03164 0080 +084 +053 138052 053 028 001 00
$$

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Don't want to alarm people but the ULL has slighty moved east over the last frame. It is clear that for now it has at the least stalled. Also the High pressure is still hugging the Mexican coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

Remember this has a outter eye wall that go's out like 20 miles from the center point(eye pressure min) making it 40 miles wide on last recon. So it is not out of the possible this sucker is going right over them or very close. A 145-150 mph hurricane can have gust to 170-180 mph.

Nope. Not in Kingston, not from this storm. No way. It's been weakening all day, and never got that close to shore. It is not nearly big enough or strong enough to produce those kinds of winds in Kingston that far away from the storm center. Jamaica got VERY lucky once again. Thank God.

Dont do that where you say things because you want to believe theyre true. Jamaica got slammed and and you know it. Reports of nearly 120mph sustained winds hit the island. The sad thing is that even with all that, they WERE lucky. Dean barely missed the coast by less than 5 miles, and has not been weakening, but maintaining strength

[jabman98]

That wouldn't make much sense though, because right before our last heat wave we had also just recieved lots of rain (the 11th wettest July on record, in fact). Also, the sun angle shouldn't be that much lower in just a weeks time. It is still only August, and in the past Houston has been known to reach over 100˚ well into September.

Absolutely. It can be darn hot in Houston in late August and early September. According to Dr. Neil Frank in the clip posted above, it's the low that's going to give us the rain and the cooler temps Wed-Friday. Interesting how he pointed out that if the low slows down, Dean could slip between the low and the high and go north. I think it was theoretical more than anything, but an interesting description of what could happen if things changed.

[Sanibel]

"To at least 138mph"

They probably pegged their scale on a metric wind reader.

I don't think they had hunters over the eye during Dean's pass. From its shape and behavior (including reports) I bet we find lower pressure when they get to the eye. Maybe they stayed out of an intensifying monster during its impact to avoid causing a panic?

[mutley]

Here is a link to a video clip on what Dr. Neil Frank was saying about the Low:

http://www.khou.com/video/index.html?nvid=167893&shu=1

Thanks for posting that clip. I understand a little better now.

[Cape Verde]

Here is a link to a video clip on what Dr. Neil Frank was saying about the Low:

http://www.khou.com/video/index.html?nvid=167893&shu=1

thanks for that link! Dr. Frank always explains things in very simple and clear terms.

[tolakram]

[Thunder44]

118mph
138mph

TWC

I just saw TWC, they say sustained winds at 114mph.

[mgpetre]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Don't want to alarm people but the ULL has slighty moved east over the last frame. It is clear that for now it has at the least stalled. Also the High pressure is still hugging the Mexican coast.

This is the part I've been worrying about... Dean has already gained some ground on the ULL as it was, and now he should make even more progress. I just don't see how the high is going to sit on top of Dean all the way through the Yucatan... does anyone tend to agree with me yet that the models will tend to shift north?

[Texashawk]

I don't see it. I mean, it isn't moving all that fast, but east? Maybe a blip.

What I do see is a hurricane going a lot more WNW than W, at least over the last 6 hours or so. Using the ol' scientific 'straight edge' dead reckoning tool, it would just barely clip the Yucatan on this afternoon's course. Of course, weebil wobble wiggle all the time, so who really knows....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Don't want to alarm people but the ULL has slighty moved east over the last frame. It is clear that for now it has at the least stalled. Also the High pressure is still hugging the Mexican coast.

[LAMOM]

Here is a link to a video clip on what Dr. Neil Frank was saying about the Low:

http://www.khou.com/video/index.html?nvid=167893&shu=1

Thanks for posting that clip. I understand a little better now.

You are very welcome.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Don't want to alarm people but the ULL has slighty moved east over the last frame. It is clear that for now it has at the least stalled. Also the High pressure is still hugging the Mexican coast.

This is the part I've been worrying about... Dean has already gained some ground on the ULL as it was, and now he should make even more progress. I just don't see how the high is going to sit on top of Dean all the way through the Yucatan... does anyone tend to agree with me yet that the models will tend to shift north?

If that ULL stalls or even worse starts to move east in earnest expect big changes in the models. Just My opinion.

[Weatherfreak14]

It seems now that the Eye is closing in again. A EWRC? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Stratosphere747]

Dean is still on a W/WNW heading as he has been all day. The wobbles balance each other out and he has gained little lat.