CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Dionne]

141 kts.....that's over 160 mph.....oh man....and last report on stormcarib said people in Jamaica were not evacuating....hoping Dean would slide south.....talk about gambling....

[HURAKAN]

[crownweather]

"Dumb" Question: Are the floaters automatically repositioned when a storm reaches the point that it cannot be picked up by the floater. Was just looking at Floater 1 off of SSD: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html and noticed it will reach the point it cannot be picked up by the floater this afternoon.

If the floater gets to the point of not picking up the storm, is there a good webpage address (Floater) that covers between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Thanks

[dwg71]

Not to be a wobble watcher but ......... wobbles get quite critical as the system approaches land and could have a big factor in how much of the eye wall is delivered to the area.. last sat loop pix I just saw delineated a pretty decent NW wobble... you should assume within the next loop or two it should wobble back to the west... to keep it basically on track... however, ever little wobble to the nw as it approaches Jamaica is not a good sign... they need as many west wobbles as they can get ...

this loop clearly shows that wobble..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

I have been noticing that also Frank it is stair stepping,looks like almost 3 frames slight NofW then 2 to the NW.I am still not buying the S of Jamaica solution.The scenario a few days ago was static(lack of a better word) for the WNW route just the High to the N now it has gotten more dynamic with the ULL in the picture.Now if Dean can go S of the ULL then I buy the WNW solution just never have seen it Claudette in 03? went around the ULL into N TX,followed the CCW flow.Hey I am just a hick from MS

Storm will pass south of Jamica, missing North "aint gonna happen", but a complete miss south is better than a direct hit.

[jrod]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191338
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 24 20070819
132800 1538N 07600W 6967 03159 0081 +073 +073 331023 024 026 019 00
132830 1540N 07558W 6965 03158 0081 +071 +071 329026 027 025 009 00
132900 1541N 07557W 6967 03158 0071 +079 +079 333027 027 023 008 00
132930 1542N 07556W 6967 03156 0073 +077 +077 334028 029 022 007 00
133000 1543N 07555W 6964 03159 0073 +077 +077 330030 030 021 007 00
133030 1544N 07553W 6969 03154 0066 +082 +080 331028 029 019 006 00
133100 1546N 07552W 6967 03155 0058 +088 +073 330029 029 019 005 00
133130 1547N 07551W 6966 03155 0056 +090 +063 330029 030 017 005 00
133200 1548N 07550W 6967 03154 0055 +089 +064 330028 029 018 005 00
133230 1549N 07548W 6966 03152 0060 +082 +077 335028 029 019 004 00
133300 1550N 07547W 6966 03149 0057 +083 +075 331028 029 017 005 00
133330 1552N 07546W 6968 03147 0056 +083 +077 330030 032 017 005 00
133400 1553N 07545W 6970 03139 0051 +084 +078 325030 031 021 005 00
133430 1554N 07543W 6964 03143 0053 +080 +080 320029 030 021 006 00
133500 1555N 07542W 6967 03141 0057 +076 +076 324031 033 024 008 00
133530 1557N 07541W 6967 03136 0060 +071 +071 332030 033 029 009 00
133600 1558N 07540W 6973 03125 0080 +054 +054 327027 034 030 045 00
133630 1559N 07538W 6963 03138 0048 +074 +074 327040 044 032 009 00
133700 1600N 07537W 6963 03133 0033 +082 +082 322045 046 031 007 00
133730 1601N 07536W 6970 03122 0046 +066 +066 328046 048 033 008 01
$$

[tallywx]

Oddly enough it seems that Dean has gone steady-state on us over the past 12-14 hours. Closed concentric eyewalls still exist at 16 and 34 mi in diameter - pressure is holding about the same. Is it absolutely gospel that the EWRC would complete itself, or could Dean theoretically hold on to a concentric structure for the duration until the Yucatan, especially considering that its CDO was never that impressive as extreme hurricanes go (e.g. no solid -70C cloudtops and such)?

[dwg71]

Erin is not a Tropical Storm and the ULL is moving just as forecst and high is building in, there is much confidence in NHC track. Texas is almost completely out of the 5 day cone of error. Models are all in agreement on YP and then a MEX hit.

[HURAKAN]

jrod, thanks for posting the recon info, so I can concentrate in the graphics.

[HURAKAN]

[Weatherfreak14]

"Dumb" Question: Are the floaters automatically repositioned when a storm reaches the point that it cannot be picked up by the floater. Was just looking at Floater 1 off of SSD: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html and noticed it will reach the point it cannot be picked up by the floater this afternoon.

If the floater gets to the point of not picking up the storm, is there a good webpage address (Floater) that covers between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Thanks

The floater did repostion itself just a couple a mins ago. should be ok now.

[marcane_1973]

141 kts.....that's over 160 mph.....oh man....and last report on caribstorm said people in Jamaica were not evacuating....hoping Dean would slide south.....talk about gambling....

Dude on 106 said he doesnt think it will be a slam dunk and the eye should pass south maybe just windy rainy and just get the outer fringes. lol

[Starburst]

AN EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAVE
INTENSIFIED... RESULTING IN WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM. AT 8 AM... THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF EDMOND BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH. BANDS OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAIN WERE ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS WAS EAST AT AROUND 10
MPH.

...OK/KS/MO/AR...
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TODAY OVER THE UNITED
STATES...WITH TROUGHS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES
AND REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS TROPICAL CIRCULATION RE-INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN OK AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE

[jrod]

Thanks for the graphics HURAKAN.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Here is a Google Map of the path so far, long link:

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .62c-75.60

Does not update. I did not include the earlier obs from takeoff.

You can see they are headed back to the center.

[jrod]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191348
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 25 20070819
133800 1603N 07535W 6964 03122 0017 +088 +088 337048 049 033 007 00
133830 1604N 07534W 6968 03116 0030 +074 +074 338050 052 034 018 00
133900 1605N 07533W 6966 03113 9990 +061 +999 341055 057 034 019 01
133930 1606N 07531W 6962 03112 9990 +056 +999 331056 059 047 025 01
134000 1607N 07530W 6964 03109 0014 +079 +079 337051 052 049 025 03
134030 1608N 07529W 6960 03111 0015 +069 +069 333050 051 042 045 05
134100 1609N 07528W 6978 03090 9990 +056 +999 332049 050 044 039 05
134130 1610N 07527W 6961 03110 0014 +074 +074 333053 057 041 009 00
134200 1611N 07526W 6968 03094 0003 +078 +078 333054 055 040 008 00
134230 1613N 07525W 6965 03098 9995 +081 +081 330054 055 039 017 00
134300 1614N 07523W 6969 03084 9990 +081 +081 327055 056 035 038 03
134330 1615N 07522W 6968 03080 9995 +073 +073 327058 059 999 999 03
134400 1616N 07521W 6969 03075 9997 +068 +068 326059 060 041 057 03
134430 1617N 07520W 6964 03075 9991 +067 +067 326062 062 043 054 03
134500 1618N 07519W 6969 03065 9980 +070 +070 326064 065 999 999 03
134530 1619N 07517W 6964 03062 9963 +078 +078 323065 065 048 010 00
134600 1621N 07516W 6971 03049 9972 +068 +068 322067 068 052 049 03
134630 1622N 07515W 6965 03049 9975 +058 +058 321068 069 054 019 01
134700 1623N 07514W 6973 03030 9943 +062 +062 328069 072 055 038 05
134730 1624N 07513W 6966 03023 9930 +073 +073 325071 073 059 025 03
$$

[Frank P]

AN EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAVE
INTENSIFIED... RESULTING IN WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM. AT 8 AM... THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF EDMOND BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH. BANDS OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAIN WERE ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS WAS EAST AT AROUND 10
MPH.

WOW, an inland intensifying tropical storm remnant... boy, you don't see that everyday....

[Starburst]

AN EXTRAORDINARY WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAVE
INTENSIFIED... RESULTING IN WHAT AMOUNTS TO AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM. AT 8 AM... THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
PART OF EDMOND BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AT 10 MPH. BANDS OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAIN WERE ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS WAS EAST AT AROUND 10
MPH.

WOW, an inland intensifying tropical storm remnant... boy, you don't see that everyday....

I know it is amazing. No one saw this coming They have had 80 mph wind gust never thought I would see the day

[HURAKAN]

[flwxwatcher]

GFS 0Z Ensemble track guidance still keep the Threat for South Texas from many ensemble members..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... k_gfs1.png

[jrod]

Erin looks better now than it ever did.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg