CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[baitism]

How long has this EWRC been going on? It seems like forever. Also, the storm is looking (relatively) ragged.

compared to what? looks awesome on the sat loops right now

Warmer cloud tops. Especially on the NE quadrant. Watch the IR loop and you will see what I mean.

[CronkPSU]

I thought we were supposed to see the eye itself fill and disappear, followed by a new eye appearing...we still have the same eye.

the eyewall is replaced...the eye doesn't move

[superfly]

I thought we were supposed to see the eye itself fill and disappear, followed by a new eye appearing...we still have the same eye.

It's an EYEWALL replacement cycle, not an EYE replacement cycle. Also IR pics aren't very impressive in that the cloud tops are relatively warm for a major hurricane.

[CronkPSU]

looks great to me

[theworld]

I need a radio news station link from Jamaica (or talk show). Anyone? Thanksssss

http://www.abyznewslinks.com/jamai.htm

[HURAKAN]

But the t-storms are not very dense.

[Scorpion]

Can't believe how big he got... just a few days ago it was being compared to Tracy(lol)

[miamicanes177]

I thought we were supposed to see the eye itself fill and disappear, followed by a new eye appearing...we still have the same eye.

It's an EYEWALL replacement cycle, not an EYE replacement cycle. Also IR pics aren't very impressive in that the cloud tops are relatively warm for a major hurricane.

Ok well then why did Wilma go from an eye 2 miles wide to one a whole larger after the eyewall replacement cycle?

[HURAKAN]

729
URNT15 KNHC 190438
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 44 20070819
042830 1550N 07233W 6953 03023 9907 +073 +073 321081 083 065 045 03
042900 1548N 07234W 6972 03011 9935 +063 +063 316084 086 063 018 05
042930 1547N 07235W 6972 03024 9937 +069 +069 319081 084 063 032 03
043000 1546N 07236W 6964 03044 9930 +083 +083 322073 074 060 008 00
043030 1545N 07238W 6969 03041 9939 +084 +084 322070 071 059 008 00
043100 1544N 07239W 6970 03050 9955 +079 +079 322067 068 059 007 00
043130 1542N 07240W 6968 03059 9972 +072 +072 324066 068 059 007 00
043200 1541N 07242W 6971 03063 9981 +068 +068 327065 065 055 010 03
043230 1540N 07243W 6970 03067 9979 +077 +077 326059 063 052 034 03
043300 1538N 07244W 6965 03079 9975 +084 +084 322059 060 053 005 00
043330 1537N 07246W 6965 03084 9994 +073 +073 323058 060 051 007 00
043400 1536N 07247W 6973 03082 0018 +062 +062 321054 055 050 024 03
043430 1535N 07248W 6965 03092 0012 +067 +067 315051 052 050 024 00
043500 1535N 07248W 6965 03092 0011 +069 +069 314051 052 049 022 00
043530 1532N 07251W 6964 03101 0014 +071 +071 311048 049 048 007 03
043600 1532N 07251W 6964 03101 0012 +074 +074 310047 049 048 007 03
043630 1529N 07251W 6967 03108 0019 +072 +072 307046 049 048 007 03
043700 1529N 07249W 6968 03102 0014 +075 +075 302043 044 046 005 03
043730 1529N 07247W 6967 03098 0007 +078 +078 297045 045 048 005 00
043800 1529N 07244W 6967 03095 0003 +078 +078 296047 048 049 005 00
$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even Joe Bastardi is now convinced of a Southern runner. While nothing is certain but death and taxes, the NHC forecast seems correct. Of course, as long as the cone of uncertainty still includes CRP and BRO, Texas isn't 100% safe, but it looks better by the minute.


I don't know my Mexican geography well, maybe this storm can make both landfalls in rural areas far from coastal towns.

[HURAKAN]

[Aquawind]

Well the IR does not show all of the concentric eyewalls very well. The eye may not fill in as much as it just fades as the outter wall moves inward.. Under IR this is hard to see and the eye will clear and enlarge at first as/if it tighens back down to a pinhole..

Dean looks awesome as this is classic for a major hurricane.. The windfield has expanded with the IRC and now it will strengthen again. Pressures are low it's just the energy has been expanded out further. From the looks of some of those recon and surface obs those exterior bands pack a heckuva punch..

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was nervous enough yesterday to stock up on some storm essentials, and with the Texas part of the season running until late September, may just save a trip to the stores in the next few weeks.

[superfly]

I thought we were supposed to see the eye itself fill and disappear, followed by a new eye appearing...we still have the same eye.

It's an EYEWALL replacement cycle, not an EYE replacement cycle. Also IR pics aren't very impressive in that the cloud tops are relatively warm for a major hurricane.

Ok well then why did Wilma go from an eye 2 miles wide to one a whole larger after the eyewall replacement cycle?

Because the smaller inner eyewall got replaced by a larger outer eyewall.

[Ptarmigan]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo


never thought I'd hear something that absurred

TWC got it wrong again. Gilbert is the second most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. Wilma is number one.

[HURAKAN]

Cheryl Lemke of TWC said that this was the second most intense hurricane ever and most intense since Hugo

never thought I'd hear something that absurred

TWC got it wrong again. Gilbert is the second most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. Wilma is number one.

No surprise. It's a surprise when they get something right.

[HURAKAN]

738
URNT15 KNHC 190448
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 45 20070819
043830 1529N 07242W 6967 03092 0009 +071 +071 295049 049 049 006 00
043900 1529N 07240W 6966 03091 0008 +070 +070 297050 052 050 008 00
043930 1529N 07238W 6970 03082 0011 +066 +066 299053 055 051 009 03
044000 1529N 07235W 6965 03089 0010 +065 +065 292056 057 051 008 03
044030 1529N 07233W 6966 03085 9992 +076 +076 289057 059 051 030 03
044100 1528N 07231W 6968 03083 9990 +077 +077 288054 054 051 010 03
044130 1528N 07229W 6967 03084 9995 +073 +073 284053 054 052 010 03
044200 1528N 07226W 6966 03083 9989 +077 +077 286054 055 052 017 00
044230 1528N 07224W 6971 03078 9987 +077 +077 281053 055 051 008 00
044300 1527N 07222W 6966 03079 9981 +080 +080 277055 057 051 006 00
044330 1527N 07219W 6969 03079 9981 +081 +081 275052 054 052 004 00
044400 1527N 07217W 6967 03080 9984 +079 +079 267052 054 051 004 00
044430 1527N 07215W 6969 03079 9985 +078 +078 263048 050 051 005 00
044500 1526N 07213W 6961 03084 9988 +075 +075 257051 052 052 006 00
044530 1526N 07210W 6964 03083 9979 +082 +082 258053 057 052 004 00
044600 1526N 07208W 6969 03079 9978 +084 +082 254058 059 051 004 00
044630 1526N 07206W 6967 03078 9980 +083 +078 249059 059 052 004 00
044700 1527N 07203W 6967 03077 9978 +085 +074 247060 061 052 002 00
044730 1527N 07201W 6965 03082 9976 +087 +073 245060 061 052 002 00
044800 1527N 07159W 6965 03083 9973 +090 +071 244061 061 052 001 00
$$

[MGC]

Cloud top temps have warmed some this evening. Still maintaining an impressive CP despite an EWRC. I was just studing the WV loops and the ULL over the GOM appears to be moving along at about the same speed as Dean. I must admit the models have so far done a pretty good job with Dean. Wendesday night I was very concerned that the ULL might have more of an impact on the track of Dean. I'm glad I was wrong and Dean has stayed south. Hopefully the core of intense winds stay offshore Jamaica but the threat of Dean directly hitting Jamaica is very real. Excellent chance for Dean to become a Cat-5 in the W Cab Sea and could make a run at Wilma or Gilbert as far as intensity goes.....MGC

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 190447
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/04:17:00Z
B. 16 deg 17 min N
072 deg 05 min W
C. 700 mb 2391 m
D. 108 kt
E. 046 deg 014 nm
F. 128 deg 122 kt
G. 047 deg 020 nm
H. EXTRAP 920 mb
I. 7 C/ 3046 m
J. 18 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 28
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 04:10:50 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANTS OPEN NNE AND E030/18/15
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB


Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 190447
XXAA 69047 99163 70721 04462 99920 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85706 23800 21016 70397 18235 30007 88999 77999
31313 09608 80417
51515 10190 92544 10191
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 30
62626 EYE 0420 LST WND 005 MBL WND 20018 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 69048 99163 70721 04462 00920 ///// 11850 23800 22696 18035
21212 00920 17520 11/// ///// 22912 19519 33850 21016 44696 30508
31313 09608 80417
51515 10190 92544 10191
61616 AF302 0704A DEAN OB 30
62626 EYE 0420 LST WND 005 MBL WND 20018 AEV 00000 =

920 mb; no surface winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the latest IR satellite. See that fast warming of a circulur area over the northeast side of the eye. That is the first signs that the big eye is starting to clear.